This has been at the back of my head for a while now.
How early can the Ausgleich happen? I've seen ideas that it could potentially have happened in 1848, if the Hungarians successfully take Vienna or the revolutions are more widespread in Austria.
But what if we go a bit more back? Maybe during Napoleon's invasion of Austria? Napoleon offered freedom to the Hungarian nobility, but they refused, instead supporting the Habsburgs and getting trashed for their trouble at the Battle of Raab. What if they had some conditions for their support?
Could maybe Rakoczi's Rebellion lead to an alt-Ausgleich?