Hypothetically, if a more efficient Schlieffen Plan succeeds, allowing a Central Powers victory in 1915, could the Great Depression have been avoided, or accelerated?
Hypothetically, if a more efficient Schlieffen Plan succeeds, allowing a Central Powers victory in 1915, could the Great Depression have been avoided, or accelerated?
Very complex situation leading up to Great Depression. An earlier end to the war would certainly have an effect through lower European indebtedness, fewer tariff barriers and less of an early 1920's depression through a glut on the market of shipping, aircraft and trucks (oh and small arms too).
A Russia continuing to industrialise and open to the world economy and not ravaged by a longer war, War Communism and Civil War is going to alter the timing of the end of the trade cycle as well. But don't get excited, only by about a year - crash of '31 or '32 rather than 1929. They are manufacturing their own goods as well as importing, and market saturation will hit them as well.
But some of the other big drivers aren't affected by a 1915/16 POD. The "Dustbowl" has been building up for over 30 years due to unsustainable and inappropriate farming practice. Without a much earlier POD which avoids ploughing up the buffalo grass on the Great Plains (better treatment of Indians? Much earlier introduction of buffalo ranching?) we are still going to see the Okies in the early thirties.
Another driver is that a major food and fuel crop (oats) have become much less profitable. By 1929 urban horses have largely been replaced by motor vehicles so the demand for fodder crops slumps and people are increasingly eating cold cereals rather than porridge for breakfast. Now OK, the latter use wheat, maize and rice too but there is an enormous displacement in the agricultural market. Tractors and combine harvesters are also making a huge contribution to increased productivity -and hence lower prices, law of supply and demand in operation. So, unless the pace of technological innovation slows massively (which is hugely unlikely with an early end to the Great War) there is going to be an agricultural Depression, largely unavoidable.
And industrially, post WW1 mass manufacturing techniques (many of them derived from wartime munitions manufacturing) bring affordable motor cars and electrical goods within the reach of a large sector of the economy. Now a shorter war would mean less war profits capital to kickstart some of this and some mass production techniques introduced more slowly without three additional years of munitions manufacturing, so again you could push the Depression a year or two down the road. Also without an impoverished Russia and Europe world markets are that little bit larger. But ultimately this market is going to reach saturation (everyone who can afford a car, radio, refrigerator has one and is only going to buy a new one if the old one breaks) and shrink/stabilise until the next generation of technology comes along. Which it will, but not usually just in time to avoid the downturn.
And the Depression is self reinforcing because as people lose their jobs or see their profit margins shrinking they spend less. So other people lose their jobs or see their profit margins shrinking and they spend less...
Now the changes I mention allow for some leeway and you could possibly have a timeline where the agricultural and industrial depressions don't coincide as closely and a more stable world order could push the industrial depression as much as three years further down the road. But I don't think you can avoid the Depression completely -partly down to the business cycle, partly down to inevitable disruptions of introductions of new technologies.
You are most welcome!This is really in-depth and helpful, thank you very much!