PC: Could Al-Musta'in keep power in Egypt?

I was doing some research on Medieval Egypt and trying to figure out a way to keep it from being a province of the ottomans when I noticed that one of the Abbasids of Cairo managed to become the Sultan of Egypt briefly. Granted, he was a compromise between the various mamelukes and didn't last long before being overthrown by Shaykh al-Muayyad. However, lets say say Shaykh al-Muayyad suffers an accident that leaves him unable to overthrow Al-Musta'in. Could Al-Musta'in keep his position in Mameluke Egypt and possibly restore the Abbasids to power?
 
Yes he could. The biggest issue with the late Abbasid house was their ineffective political skills. Previous Abbasid rulers often where politically competent and could at least hold semblances of power against Mu'Tazalite advisors and Mamluk guards and generals. However post 1300 Abbasid caliphs did not display any such skill politically and often were content to remain in positions where benefit was gained with the least gamble.

As well, a major issue with al-Musta'in Billah was who he surrounded himself with. Within Egypt, at this period, the Abbasid caliphs in order to stay in power must make extreme overtures to the Ulama and their constituents and attempt to curtail the power of Mamluks and millitary personel. The reason for this, is that the Ulama of this period were the only major force that absolutely wishes for a return to the Abbasid throne and in the same breath have a disdain for many Mamluks and have the ear of foreign rulers and the peasantry in many cases.

This thus becomes enormously difficult when you realize that the sultans have no army of any sort to defend the Caliph nor do they have anything beyond influence. Though, more auspicious events have occurred, most famously how the Ulema repelled Timur from the Mamluks by invoking their takfir and critiquing Timur.

So, I propose perhaps a skeleton of how Musta'in Billah could possibly build an effective base.

1. Invite and surround himself with critical thinkers and Ulema, those who have knowledge of history and economics especially. Ibn Hajar and al-Maqrizi would be examples of perfect Ulema for positions around him. Maqrizi for example was a staunch supporter of the Caliphate and was a somewhat opposed to many of the excesses of the Mamluks of the Burji. Some scholars also believed Maqrizi was a descendant of the Fatimid house; none can know for sure however.

2. Begin to quickly build a base of support amongst Zahri and other legalistic and strict Shaykhs, tribes and peasants throughout the area. With the intention of massacring or trapping the Mamluks. With Caliphal authority and alliances of Ulema, this may actually be possible, especially with a number of loyal Mamluks.


3. Gain foreign support. Send envoys to all surrounding Islamic states seeking recognition and friends among them. This could include a tribute of soldiers or treasure as Musta'in Billah received. Recognition of his rule would increase his chances of victory if his plan fails and instead of wiping the Mamluks out in a swoop, instead has to battle them directly. Intervention from Naaruz in Syria then becomes probable as is with other neighboring states seeking to gain legitimacy by being a defender of the Abbasid throne.
 
One wonders to what degree Egypt could retain independence from the Ottomans if it's ruled by a Caliph with actual secular power. He'd have enough status that they'd probably have to walk carefully in taking him "under their protection."
 
@B_Munro Well, the Ottomans certainly would. Likely in this scenario, Abbasids give Ottomans authority to invade into Europe in a similar manner to how it gave essentially sanctions for the Ghaznavid and Ghurid to invade into India during the weaker periods of the Caliphate of Baghdad/Samarra.

A legitimate invasion of Egypt by the Ottomans against the Abbasid, would risk nullifying its religious legitimacy, which it fought hard to garner.
 
Thanks for the detailed answer John! I do have two more questions, mostly regarding your ideas regarding the new Abbasid power base and how they would get it.

1. You said the Ulema would be useful to Al-Musta’in Billah because they would want a Caliph with secular power and they have the ears of the peasants. Your idea would work, but aren't the Mamluks who would be opposed to giving up their power be better trained and equipped then a bunch of serfs, at least on paper? Granted the previously mentioned Loyal Mamluks and foreign support could compensate, but by how much?

2. Would the frame you proposed work better with Al-Musta’in Billah refusing to step down as Sultan, getting into a war with Shaykh Al-Muayyad trying to overthrow him, or by having Shaykh Al-Muayyad encounter an accident? I currently wrote a rough copy with Shaykh Al-Muayyad dying, but I'm not sure if that is the right call or not.
 
Thanks for the detailed answer John! I do have two more questions, mostly regarding your ideas regarding the new Abbasid power base and how they would get it.

1. You said the Ulema would be useful to Al-Musta’in Billah because they would want a Caliph with secular power and they have the ears of the peasants. Your idea would work, but aren't the Mamluks who would be opposed to giving up their power be better trained and equipped then a bunch of serfs, at least on paper? Granted the previously mentioned Loyal Mamluks and foreign support could compensate, but by how much?

2. Would the frame you proposed work better with Al-Musta’in Billah refusing to step down as Sultan, getting into a war with Shaykh Al-Muayyad trying to overthrow him, or by having Shaykh Al-Muayyad encounter an accident? I currently wrote a rough copy with Shaykh Al-Muayyad dying, but I'm not sure if that is the right call or not.

Well the Mamluks would be stronger militarily, but as we have seen in Islamic history; religious power can defeat military power.

What do I mean by this?

If Musta'in Billah gains serious power and is able to gain public support amongst the peasantry; it will become precarious for the Mamluks to attack. Thus the Mamluks proceed to try to control Musta'in and overthrow him from the inside. This gives the Abbasid throne the ability to then trap and kill the Mamluks before they can ferment a revolt.

Or

The Abbasid throne relies on assistance from Jaaruz in Syria or surrounding Islamic states.


Mu'ayyad is best to die in this scenario. It is best for powerful Mamluks to be dead when it comes to the Abbasid.
 
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