PC: Colonial Conflicts w CP Win

So here's the scenario I'd like check and ask about:
  1. With a late 1916 PoD, the CP win WWI in early 1917, which leads to...
  2. a "Cold War" between the British and German Empires in the subsequent decade(s). My question:
  3. How does this context affect the overseas colonies in general, and British India in particular?
    • Does Britain clamp down harder on independence and home rule movements, making independence less likely?
    • Or does the prolonged great power rivalry give a boost to anti-colonial organizations, leading to earlier decolonization and independence?
    • Or does the dynamic look like something else entirely?
((1) is based on threads and conversations from earlier this year, while (2) is something I see crop up quite a lot. If both of those work, I'd like the focus to be on (3).)
 
How big is the German Colonial Empire? A victory as late as 1917 may result in Germany no colonial empire to speak so, with the notable exception of maybe Tanganyika, let's say Germany recovers Tanganyika and ransoms Belgium for the Congo, so Germany has only a coast-to-coast African colony against the huge British empire.

What you mean by colonial conflicts? OTL Cold war-esque decolonization wars of independence? I don't see neither side doing so... because that means the end of their empires. Let's say that Westminster decides to supply some Swahili freedom fighters to revolt in German East Africa, should they succeed, what's stopping a similar uprising in Nigeria (with German arms)?

I must say, Britain is away more vulnerable in this situation, India is a big hot spot in the case of a CP victory after so many sacrifices of India soldiers, there was already a German-Hindu conspiracy in OTL, in this case Berlin is going to invest even more in fermenting anti-British sentiment in India, could Gandhi be Germany's Lenin in India? :D I also think repercussions of India independence wouldn't affect the colonial subjects in Africa as a successful rebellion in African territory.
 
What you mean by colonial conflicts? OTL Cold war-esque decolonization wars of independence? I don't see neither side doing so... because that means the end of their empires.
I was thinking along the lines of the OTL experiences of WWI, where each side supported revolts in the enemy empires, but over a longer period of time and with more chances for success. So... kind of?
I must say, Britain is away more vulnerable in this situation, India is a big hot spot in the case of a CP victory after so many sacrifices of India soldiers, there was already a German-Hindu conspiracy in OTL, in this case Berlin is going to invest even more in fermenting anti-British sentiment in India, could Gandhi be Germany's Lenin in India? :D
My preliminary thoughts are along these lines :D
 
I'm going to assume that the Germans essentially retain their original colonial empire, maybe with the former Belgian Congo being given either de jure or de facto to the UK as compensation (under the assumption that Belgium becomes a German puppet post-war).

On the one hand, both sides would have an interest in propping up independence movements in their opponents' colonies. On the other hand, both sides have a strong vested interest in avoiding colonial independence becoming a major topic in their own empires, so that should somewhat counterbalance the effects. And Japan is still looking for its own sphere (especially if they were denied German colonies ITTL), while the US will still be looking to offload the Philippines.

Another question is what happens in Russia; a communist state is likely to be more sympathetic to anti-colonial movements, while a monarchist or fascist state is less likely to care.
 
All of Germany's colonies were occupied by the end of 1914. I think an earlier victory would be better for them to get the colonies back, with some extras on the side. The later the peace, the more likely it is to be a status quo ante bellum in Europe with the Royal Navy strangling any attempts by Germany to wrangle territory from the continental powers' empires.

With an earlier victory, perhaps at the First Battle of the Marne with all powers suing for peace by 1915, Germany's empire will consist of the Belgian Congo (as others have said, ransomed for Belgian independence and neutrality restored), possibly Togoland and Kamerun with bits added from the French West and Equatorial Africa colonies. Sudwestafrika will remain South African, and Ostafrika will be handed over to the Brits regardless so they have their Cape-Cairo connection.

Of course, in the east Germany's getting nothing back. Nada. New Zealand will keep Samoa, Australia will keep German New Guinea, and Japan will keep the rest. No way Germany is getting these back.

So comparatively, what kind of empire does Germany have? France still controls more land over-all. Britain still dominates. In an early peace, it's unlikely (according to wiking, who I trust as being knowledgable about WWI in general) that the Russian Empire will implode. Hardly the set-up for a Cold War situation.

Of course, in any event, Britain won't be bowed. They can still wage a decent war against Germany by themselves at sea, and the Germans will realise (though their propoganda machine will say otherwise) that they haven't *actually* beaten Britain. So, what then? They will probably still try to destabilise the British Empire, and I have no doubt that the local Germans of Tanganyika will raise hell if the mother country asks them too (since they were the only colonial holdouts in the end). South Africa will be implementing assimilation policies in Sudwestafrika fairly quickly, and the Germans there will probably be okay with racial policy in the region.

I don't think the Germans will be causing too much trouble in Africa though; any attempts to bring down their rivals' colonial empires will spell trouble for their own, anyway, especially in the formative years when administration is transitioning from French/Belgian policy to German policy. And any peace with the Entente will put a cap on German naval policy, which most German leaders at the time wanted anyway I believe (it was the Kaiser specifically who wanted a grand Kriegsmarine whereas the government didn't want to antagonise Britain pre-war), so that might limit Berlin's ability to spread chaos elsewhere.
 
Another question is what happens in Russia; a communist state is likely to be more sympathetic to anti-colonial movements, while a monarchist or fascist state is less likely to care.
Neither Tsarist nor Communist; possibly fascist. One thing I'm sure of -- they will not like having imperial powers with influence on their borders, and will work toward being surrounded by true buffer states. That means they'll support the Chinese should they go to war with Japan, etc.
 
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All of Germany's colonies were occupied by the end of 1914. I think an earlier victory would be better for them to get the colonies back, with some extras on the side. The later the peace, the more likely it is to be a status quo ante bellum in Europe with the Royal Navy strangling any attempts by Germany to wrangle territory from the continental powers' empires.

With an earlier victory, perhaps at the First Battle of the Marne with all powers suing for peace by 1915, Germany's empire will consist of the Belgian Congo (as others have said, ransomed for Belgian independence and neutrality restored), possibly Togoland and Kamerun with bits added from the French West and Equatorial Africa colonies. Sudwestafrika will remain South African, and Ostafrika will be handed over to the Brits regardless so they have their Cape-Cairo connection.

Actually, Sudwestafrika held out until mid 1915, and Kamerun until 1916.

With a German victory at the Marne I doubt that they would give up Ostafrika or Sudwestafrika to the Brits, neither of them had been occupied and the Germans were actually on the offensive in South Africa (and fighting their guerilla war in the East). With an early victory they will probably get large parts of Angola and Mozambique as was planned before the war in addition to the Belgian congo and Fremch Central africa.
 
On what colonies Germany holds after the war -- true, Britain and Japan took a good deal they may not be able to get back, but depending on the win, they might be able to force concessions from France and Belgium. So let's say Germany's position qua colonial power is roughly equivalent to pre-war, with changes. The details, I think, we can leave vague for now.
 
Well the end of 1916/ beginning of 1917 was sort of a high Tide for the CPs. The quick victory over Romania, Jutland and the (defensve) victories in teh West and east (You can look at Somme and Brusilov as defensive sucesses in a broader Vision).

OTL KArl "forced" Germany into making a peace offer which was ultimately turned down by teh Entente) around Christmas 1916 .

Lets assume Germany is realy mening it TTL and does a little preparation on the diplomatic side (Including the Pope and bringing in the Americans as middlemen). This offer could really be the base of a peace with the CPs "winning" i.e. coming out a little ahead of the Entente.

But even a White peace will shift the Balance of power compared to OTL in subtle and not so subtle ways.

At first there won't be big reparations paid by Germany, no giving of patents to the victors.

Lets assume ist roughly a peace "Status quo ante" on the western front and in Italy. Then by all logiy ist hard to see why it should be a Status quo (post) elsewhere. There will be some "border adjustments" and trading, but the only "big" changes to prewar will be in the OE and Russia. And this will largely depend on the exact Point of time WHEN an armistice goes into effect. (Sinai Campaign was Close only early 1917. Bagdad was captured also only March 1917....

Riussia WILL lose Poland (nad a few bits in the Caucasus), but unlikely more...
 
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