PC: Californian slave state

What is the possibility of California being either incorporated into the union as a slave state or being split into a North Californian free state and a South Californian slave state?
 
Basically none. There were few proslavery people in California. There is small possibility of California splitting into two free states, though.
 
Unless we have a POD where slavery is ingrained into America as a whole, and this needs to happen before the Constitution is made, because by then it's too late.
 
How could it happen? Was Southern California this adapted to a slavery-based economy?

In the 1849 State Convention, California delegates universally voted against allowing slavery in the state. In 1859, the California legislature passed the Pico Act, which would have allowed southern California to split off as the free state of Colorado if approved by the US Senate. Nothing was done about the Pico Act because of the Civil War.
 
Let's consider the geography and population density.
First off, California was a rather arid state until major irrigation projects circa 1900 that transformed the Central Valley and Los Angeles Basin into agricultural powerhouses.
Before that, agriculture was confined to grassland activities like cattle-herding. It is difficult to enslave slaves to cattle ranches when there are so many opportunities to wander off. The climate was most enough to graze horses so they were no dependant on solely human labour (as some parts of the Sahara today).
The Spanish Catholic Church had tried baptising natives, then enslaving them on church-owned farms, but native slaves ran away too often.

Pre-1900 California farms did not need significant numbers of slaves.

Nowadays, California agri-business treats economic refugees from Latin America worse than slaves. Day labourers frequent the bottom rung of the wage scale.
 
Nowadays, California agri-business treats economic refugees from Latin America worse than slaves.

Or they could just... leave USA and not have kids that vote here. No matter how badly a worker is treated, they always have the option of being a Hobo instead of a mistreated worker, or in your particular example be a poor worker for a farmer in Latin America. In a world with perfect information (just a few keystrokes away), the fact that those people are laboring in agri-business means they think they will be treated better there than elsewhere. A slave who is badly treated can't exactly go to a better master, he's property of his owner.
 
Many migrants are deeply indebted to smugglers or whoever currently holds their contract. Back-in-the-day many indentured servants were worked to death before the end of their seven year contracts. Criminal gangs can threaten their relatives if they runaway.
See Misha Glenny's book "McMafia, a journey through the global criminal underworld" for accounts of modern Chinese "snakeheads" who smuggle labourers out of mainland China ....
 
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