PC: Brief sketch of a CP victory TL

that map is totally ASB, can't happen nor will it happen. If Germany would annex lands they'd annex the Baltics and Neu Südostpreußen. Luxembourg and Belgian Luxembourg may also be annexed, along with the rest of Alsace. Belgium'd become a puppet and if it is not (highly unlikely), cut up and its individual pieces sold to the highest bidder/given away, Flanders (inclu. French Flanders up to Calais (old Dutch: Kales)) could go independent or go Dutch, Walonia'd go French or German.

Austria-Hungary would not annex that much land either, they'd nibble some bits off of other countries but not as much as is on this map, Venetia (Ger: Venedig) is completely ASB unless they'd cleanse the land.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
that map is totally ASB, can't happen nor will it happen. If Germany would annex lands they'd annex the Baltics and Neu Südostpreußen. Luxembourg and Belgian Luxembourg may also be annexed, along with the rest of Alsace. Belgium'd become a puppet and if it is not (highly unlikely), cut up and its individual pieces sold to the highest bidder/given away, Flanders (inclu. French Flanders up to Calais (old Dutch: Kales)) could go independent or go Dutch, Walonia'd go French or German.

Austria-Hungary would not annex that much land either, they'd nibble some bits off of other countries but not as much as is on this map, Venetia (Ger: Venedig) is completely ASB unless they'd cleanse the land.
Yes, the map is ASB, check my post of a more plausible peace.
 
The problems after WW1 being:
1. All minorities demanding autonomy on the ground that they fought for the empire.
2. The Habsburgs being unwilling to give anyone anything, especially since they felt they had already given away too much power to the parliaments in Vienna and Budapest.
3. The Magyars pressing for more freedoms for them, and meanwhile trying to make sure no one else get anything.

So post-war Austria- Hungary would probably be a even greater headache for it's rulers than the pre- war empire.

This, plus the economy in shambles, communist ideology spreading, and if this map implemented various new minorities not really happy to be here and ready to rebel.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Actually, I wonder if, with a bit more finesse, they might even have gotten away with USW.

I would say yes. I am using this source.

German Submarine Warfare 1914-1918
in the Eyes of
British Intelligence
Selected Sources from the British
National Archives, Kew
Edited by Hans Joachim Koerver

Germany never sank less than 19% sunk without warning for a year (1916 Atlantic + NS). In the Med they were never below 26% for year. A lot is the way it was handled, the USA seem to accept the CP sinking ships within 50 miles of Saloniki as presumed transports. Now to the 19% figure, the lowest month of the year was 11% which was hit both in July 1916 (USW) and again in December 1916 (cruiser rules). In 1916, the highest monthly without warning was only 61%. Unfortunately for the Germans, they tended to have a horrible PR department and exaggerate the own barbarity at sea.

So, IMO, with merely an appreciation of the need to keep the USA out and control over the communication coming out of Germany, they could have made it much harder for the USA to enter the war, and at a minimum delayed it, all while having an aggressive policy near to USW.
 
Thanks for putting me onto Koerver - he seems an interesting site.

One gripe, though. I notice he perpetuates the myth that Lloyd George rammed the adoption of convoy down the throats of the British Admiralty. As I understand it, when he made that famous visit to the Admiralty in May, a memo from Sir Maurice Hankey advocaing convoy had already been on his desk for three months.

There were actually a number of factors involved in getting convoy adopted when it was. The entry of the US Navy made available a lot more escort vessels (as luck would have it, Admiral Sims, unlike many of his colleagues, was a strong advocate of cvonvoy), but the biggest reason was quite simply that the RN had run out of options. Other countermeasures were getting nowhere, and the Admirals were now desperate enough to try anything.
 
This, plus the economy in shambles, communist ideology spreading, and if this map implemented various new minorities not really happy to be here and ready to rebel.

I can harldy imagine A-h to become communist, nor was there really a communist ideology within the population, where did you get that from ?
The economy wasnt as good as the eceonomy of other european powers, but dont forget that A-H economy was growing very fast compared to others
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Thanks for putting me onto Koerver - he seems an interesting site.

One gripe, though. I notice he perpetuates the myth that Lloyd George rammed the adoption of convoy down the throats of the British Admiralty. As I understand it, when he made that famous visit to the Admiralty in May, a memo from Sir Maurice Hankey advocaing convoy had already been on his desk for three months.

There were actually a number of factors involved in getting convoy adopted when it was. The entry of the US Navy made available a lot more escort vessels (as luck would have it, Admiral Sims, unlike many of his colleagues, was a strong advocate of cvonvoy), but the biggest reason was quite simply that the RN had run out of options. Other countermeasures were getting nowhere, and the Admirals were now desperate enough to try anything.

I really only used the charts for my ATL. He saved me 10's of hours trying to figure out how to model what say an extra 30 subs on merchant patrol kills in a month. So I was not looking at based on blame, but what worked IOTL. So I skipped who made the decision.

Now for lack of escorts, this is actually critical. If German commits to building U-boats sooner, and slow down big surface ships and pulls the skilled labor back out of the army, then the RN is is terrible shape for escorts, especially escorts with longer range. The RN would catch up after a while, but, the Merchant fleet would be greatly hurt in the interrum.
 
I can harldy imagine A-h to become communist, nor was there really a communist ideology within the population, where did you get that from ?
The economy wasnt as good as the eceonomy of other european powers, but dont forget that A-H economy was growing very fast compared to others

The troops back from the eastern front? And not A-H in his entire, but various faction/nationality/people who want reform, and not even a succesfull revolution but another faction of dissenter/revolutionary that add gasoline in an already problematic situation. A-H economy, as the other european economies, as been hit by a little something called the First world war who in OTL caused a lot of repercussion for everyone winner and loser alike so for a nation with a ton of problem like A-H this don't bring good news.
Sorry but by 1917 is too late for saving the nation.
 
The troops back from the eastern front? And not A-H in his entire, but various faction/nationality/people who want reform, and not even a succesfull revolution but another faction of dissenter/revolutionary that add gasoline in an already problematic situation. A-H economy, as the other european economies, as been hit by a little something called the First world war who in OTL caused a lot of repercussion for everyone winner and loser alike so for a nation with a ton of problem like A-H this don't bring good news.
Sorry but by 1917 is too late for saving the nation.


Could you be a little more specific? Exactly who rebels and what are their objectives?

Remember that for most of the peoples, independence is impossible. If the Austrian half of the Monarchy disintegrates, then bar Galicia and perhaps Dalmatia it will promptly be gobbled up by Germany. Will its Czechs and Slovenes want that? And if the Magyars try to rebel, the Croats will in turn rebel against them. Sounds like a recipe for a spattering of uncoordinated risings which get mopped up one by one.
 
Could you be a little more specific? Exactly who rebels and what are their objectives?

You must only choose the Magyar want a renegotiating that mean basically independence but don't want that the other minorities get more powers, the Croats want more autonomy and have territorial dispute with the Magyars; counting the map the albanians, Romanians, italians and the serbians will not seat idle and become peacefully part of A-H (to be clear the albanias insorged against the italian s in OTL when there the possibility of a split up of their country, here i don't see much difference)the Hasburg are not very keen to give more autonomy and to share powers withe the parliament, the current ruling class is basically discredited (as all the class of Europe) and the communist will continue the make converts



Remember that for most of the peoples, independence is impossible. If the Austrian half of the Monarchy disintegrates, then bar Galicia and perhaps Dalmatia it will promptly be gobbled up by Germany. Will its Czechs and Slovenes want that? And if the Magyars try to rebel, the Croats will in turn rebel against them. Sounds like a recipe for a spattering of uncoordinated risings which get mopped up one by one.

By who? The army will probably split up and is already a shadow of his former self and even if uncoordinated they were too much. The German are occupyed with their problem in prop up Ukraine, put out the Polish and with their internal political troubles. And is not that groups whith impossible objective are not even tried to achievied.
A-H survived thanks to a very precarius equilibrium, unfortunaly the war shattered it without mercy
 
By who? The army will probably split up and is already a shadow of his former self and even if uncoordinated they were too much. The German are occupyed with their problem in prop up Ukraine, put out the Polish and with their internal political troubles.


OTL the habsburg army held together till late October 1918, and started to break up only when the collapse of the Balkan front made the position manifestly hopeless. Why should it suddenly fall apart when it has won?

As for the Germans, Austria-Hungary is their southern flank and canot be ignored. If necessary, Ukrainian affairs would have to be put on hold while order was restored in their neighbour. Of course they themselves may dismember it, if they decide that keeping it together is more trouble than it's worth, but that's a slightly different matter.

The Magyars, of course, would find themselves completely under Berlin's thumb. If they make any trouble, Germany can seek reconciliation with the Serbs and Rumanians by offering them chunks of Hungary. The Czechs are hemmed in on three sides by Germany and the German provinces of Austria, so could be independent only for the day or two that a German force would take to reach Prague. I suppose that for some reason or other they might decide that indirect rule from Berlin was better than direct rule from Vienna, but that is far from self-evident.
 
OTL the habsburg army held together till late October 1918, and started to break up only when the collapse of the Balkan front made the position manifestly hopeless. Why should it suddenly fall apart when it has won?

Because this is WWI, is irrilevant if you win or lose, you are bounded to face internal trouble, economic hardship and a ruling class discredited (just see the Entente...and they had won); A-H has some ton of other problems if you add this well...the game are done. The army held together thanks to German help and when problem will arise it's doubtfoul that think will remain

As for the Germans, Austria-Hungary is their southern flank and canot be ignored. If necessary, Ukrainian affairs would have to be put on hold while order was restored in their neighbour. Of course they themselves may dismember it, if they decide that keeping it together is more trouble than it's worth, but that's a slightly different matter.

Not by much, as even OTL A-H was a little too much for policing and keeping together, not even counting Poland and the rest of the new east european territory. Not counting internal political matters...as OTL entente faced problem i doubt that Germany will be spared.

The Magyars, of course, would find themselves completely under Berlin's thumb. If they make any trouble, Germany can seek reconciliation with the Serbs and Rumanians by offering them chunks of Hungary. The Czechs are hemmed in on three sides by Germany and the German provinces of Austria, so could be independent only for the day or two that a German force would take to reach Prague. I suppose that for some reason or other they might decide that indirect rule from Berlin was better than direct rule from Vienna, but that is far from self-evident.

You know that this is all based on a Mexican stand-off that can go wrong in a second.
 
You know that this is all based on a Mexican stand-off that can go wrong in a second.


I'd have said it was less a question of Mexican standoff than of lesser evil.

Pre-1914, the alternative to Austria-Hungary was, for most of its peoples, partition between Germany and Russia. OTL, in 1918 both countries were flat on their backs, so there was no obstacle to declaring independence, and no particular reason not to. TTL, after WW1 the alternative to AH would be annexation into a Greater Germany, or at any rate a German domination so total as to amount to the same thing. Prewar, the status quo was pretty certainly the lesser evil for most, and TTL might well have continued to be after.

It's a bit like Yugoslavia. In 1918 that was a lesser evil to Italian dominaton, later on a lesser evil to Nazi domination, and later still a lesser evil to Soviet domination. After the fall of communism, it was no longer a lesser evil to anything in particular, and so dissolved with something of a bang.

AH's TTL fate depends on whether its peoples and its German neighbour regard it as still the lesser evil to anything, or whether the latter get so disruptive that Berlin decides to call in the Official Receiver. The latter is certainly possible, but to my mind by no means inevitable. After all, it provides a convenient container for a whole bunch of people who probably don't want to be annexed by Germany, and whom Germany for her own reasons may not particularly want to annex. The status quo might just be less trouble for both.
 
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