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Let's assume that for what ever reason (not important now), the Dutch keep the Cape Colony. My question is: would have the Great Trek still taken place? Would have the Boer Republics still been established?

I have heard arguments for both 'yes' and 'no' being made on this site. Both arguments were:

- Yes = Continued Dutch control would have been more centralized by Europe that the British had done OTL. The Boers would still wish to be on their own, and still trek.

- No = Continued Dutch control would have been favored by the Boers, so no trek would have happened.

While both arguments are vague, I haven't been able to see a consensus on this topic.

Any thoughts?
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