There’s plenty of ways Ethiopia could balkanize.Anyway Ethiopia could Bakanize as a result of it's civil war
What changes to the rebel movement would be needed
What areas of the country would be most likely to break away
You’re right for the most part here but I think it’d depend when such shattering occurs.Depends what you mean by Balkanize, you could probably get it to split into 2-3 pieces but not shatter into 5-6 states like Yugoslavia.
I forget the SWhich rebel movement? The EPRDF?
Again, I say - which rebel movement(s) do you have in mind?I forget the S
Depends what you mean by Balkanize, you could probably get it to split into 2-3 pieces but not shatter into 5-6 states like Yugoslavia.
All good points!Well, you've got Ogaden going to Somalia, or if it's too politically different from Somalia it could easily declare independence, and the far north including Eritrea could be divided into Afar and Tigre regions, then you have Oromia which could split into Muslim and Orthodox countries, and then south of Oromia there are tribal lands that could easily be 3-4 semi-independent statelets.
I'll admit that's stretching it a little, but Ethiopia is large and diverse enough to break up really nastily if mismanaged properly.
EPRDF and OLFAgain, I say - which rebel movement(s) do you have in mind?
The OLF wasn’t much of a significant movement as many people like to think so you’d have to change something in its early development. If the Derg collapses earlier, the EPRDF doesn’t come along as it did and then the respective movements end up partitioning Ethiopia along ethnic lines.EPRDF and OLF