PC: Balkanized Ethiopia

Anyway Ethiopia could Bakanize as a result of it's civil war

What changes to the rebel movements would be needed

What areas of the country would be most likely to break away
 
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Anyway Ethiopia could Bakanize as a result of it's civil war

What changes to the rebel movement would be needed

What areas of the country would be most likely to break away
There’s plenty of ways Ethiopia could balkanize.

Which rebel movement? The EPRDF?

I’d say the provinces in the south and east.
 
Depends what you mean by Balkanize, you could probably get it to split into 2-3 pieces but not shatter into 5-6 states like Yugoslavia.

Well, you've got Ogaden going to Somalia, or if it's too politically different from Somalia it could easily declare independence, and the far north including Eritrea could be divided into Afar and Tigre regions, then you have Oromia which could split into Muslim and Orthodox countries, and then south of Oromia there are tribal lands that could easily be 3-4 semi-independent statelets.

I'll admit that's stretching it a little, but Ethiopia is large and diverse enough to break up really nastily if mismanaged properly.
 
Well, you've got Ogaden going to Somalia, or if it's too politically different from Somalia it could easily declare independence, and the far north including Eritrea could be divided into Afar and Tigre regions, then you have Oromia which could split into Muslim and Orthodox countries, and then south of Oromia there are tribal lands that could easily be 3-4 semi-independent statelets.

I'll admit that's stretching it a little, but Ethiopia is large and diverse enough to break up really nastily if mismanaged properly.
All good points!

I think complete balkanization along ethnic lines is much more likely by the 1990s, depending on how the EPRDF decides to play it.
 
EPRDF and OLF
The OLF wasn’t much of a significant movement as many people like to think so you’d have to change something in its early development. If the Derg collapses earlier, the EPRDF doesn’t come along as it did and then the respective movements end up partitioning Ethiopia along ethnic lines.
 
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