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I know there's been loads of Axis Victory TL ideas, but I just had to see if this outline was anywhere near as plausible as I thought it was:

The Nazi invasion of Norway fails, which has immediate, and ironic, effects:
*it helps Halifax to become Britain's next Prime Minister
*it makes Hitler more insistent that Allied forces are crushed on the Continent, leading to much larger losses at Dunkirk
*this results in a sort of peace between Germany, Britain, and France (now ruled by the fascist *Vichy regime)
*this involves Germany pulling out of the neutral nations (Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark) post haste, and more slowly out of France in a separate peace
*Hitler technically agrees to leave West Poland, on the condition that Stalin remove Soviet troops from the Eastern part of the country; as Stalin is, unsurprisingly, wont to do this, German occupation of West Poland is effectively accepted by Britain and Europe as fait accompli

The longer term effects...
*FDR is not elected for a third term
*Japan still moves against French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies with little resistance
*Germany and Japan come to focus their attention later on the Soviets, the former (while leaving Yugoslavia and Greece alone) cutting off Russia from Europe and the Caucas, the latter taking Sakharin and (maybe) some of Siberia
*the Soviets are out as a power by the decades end, but getting stuck in a protracted guerilla war
*Japan's attempts at annexing China fail; end result however is not reunified China; does not see fall of Japanese dominated Manchuko
*the Empire of Japan may or may not get into wars with Britain over her Chinese and Southeast Asian colonies, avoids war with Australia, and possible war with US is strictly over Philippines
*Hitler goes on to dominate the European continent for the remainder of his natural life
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