PC: Axis Victory Scenario #5168922

I know there's been loads of Axis Victory TL ideas, but I just had to see if this outline was anywhere near as plausible as I thought it was:

The Nazi invasion of Norway fails, which has immediate, and ironic, effects:
*it helps Halifax to become Britain's next Prime Minister
*it makes Hitler more insistent that Allied forces are crushed on the Continent, leading to much larger losses at Dunkirk
*this results in a sort of peace between Germany, Britain, and France (now ruled by the fascist *Vichy regime)
*this involves Germany pulling out of the neutral nations (Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark) post haste, and more slowly out of France in a separate peace
*Hitler technically agrees to leave West Poland, on the condition that Stalin remove Soviet troops from the Eastern part of the country; as Stalin is, unsurprisingly, wont to do this, German occupation of West Poland is effectively accepted by Britain and Europe as fait accompli

The longer term effects...
*FDR is not elected for a third term
*Japan still moves against French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies with little resistance
*Germany and Japan come to focus their attention later on the Soviets, the former (while leaving Yugoslavia and Greece alone) cutting off Russia from Europe and the Caucas, the latter taking Sakharin and (maybe) some of Siberia
*the Soviets are out as a power by the decades end, but getting stuck in a protracted guerilla war
*Japan's attempts at annexing China fail; end result however is not reunified China; does not see fall of Japanese dominated Manchuko
*the Empire of Japan may or may not get into wars with Britain over her Chinese and Southeast Asian colonies, avoids war with Australia, and possible war with US is strictly over Philippines
*Hitler goes on to dominate the European continent for the remainder of his natural life
 
We need a sticky about why the Japanese would get crushed by the Soviet Army in Siberia.

But unique POD about Norway I must say.
 
We need a sticky about why the Japanese would get crushed by the Soviet Army in Siberia.

But unique POD about Norway I must say.

If the Germans collude with the Japanese instead of acting as allies of convenience, the Japanese might avoid getting totally spanked in East Asia. I THINK this is what he's getting at.
 
We need a sticky about why the Japanese would get crushed by the Soviet Army in Siberia.

Yeah, I figured Siberia proper would be a stretch, just had to throw it out there; I can take it, if the Russians were tied up in the west, Sakharin wouldn't be a problem?

If the Germans collude with the Japanese instead of acting as allies of convenience, the Japanese might avoid getting totally spanked in East Asia. I THINK this is what he's getting at.

"Collusion" here just meaning "attacking the same power instead of one dragging in new enemies"; mostly it was figuring how well the Japanese Empire could do, and which risks they'd be more likely to avoid, with a shorter, Nazi victorious "western front" in Europe...
 

Cook

Banned
*it helps Halifax to become Britain's next Prime Minister
Success in Norway would delay the fall of Chamberlain, it does nothing to improve the chances of Halifax being elevated, in fact it would improve Churchill’s standing in the Chamberlain cabinet because he was largely responsible for it.

*it makes Hitler more insistent that Allied forces are crushed on the Continent, leading to much larger losses at Dunkirk
Hitler was insistent that the Anglo-French armies should be destroyed at Dunkirk, the story that he allowed the B.E.F. to escape so that he could negotiate a peace with the British is a myth, and failure in Norway would in all likelihood make the Fuhrer more nervous during a campaign that relied on audacity to succeed.

*this results in a sort of peace between Germany, Britain, and France (now ruled by the fascist *Vichy regime)
*this involves Germany pulling out of the...
The only peace offer that would have been on the table would be Hitler guaranteeing to leave the British Empire alone in return for German preeminence and domination of Continental Europe – which is exactly what he did offer. The idea of Hitler even considering giving up land hard won with German blood is pretty much ludicrous, particularly at the height of his power. Norway would just be considered as outside the sphere of Continental Europe and falling more naturally into the domain of Oceania – ie. Falling to the British.
 
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Without the resources of France, Belgium and the Netherlands, I think Germany would do worse fighting the Soviets. The big decisive battles were won long before US/UK strategic bombing became a major factor, and something like 80% of German troops were on the Eastern Front in 1942. Maybe if the peace deal involves large agricultural/industrial shipments from France and the Low Countries to Germany, this would work. Otherwise, I think the Soviets win out in the end (especially since the UK is probably covertly helping them and/or actively trading with them - just because they're at peace with Germany doesn't mean they want Hitler to win).
 
The only peace offer that would have been on the table would be Hitler guaranteeing to leave the British Empire alone in return for German preeminence and domination of Continental Europe – which is exactly what he did offer. The idea of Hitler even considering giving up land hard won with German blood is pretty much ludicrous, particularly at the height of his power. Norway would just be considered as outside the sphere of Continental Europe and falling more naturally into the domain of Oceania – ie. Falling to the British.

Without the resources of France, Belgium and the Netherlands, I think Germany would do worse fighting the Soviets. The big decisive battles were won long before US/UK strategic bombing became a major factor, and something like 80% of German troops were on the Eastern Front in 1942. Maybe if the peace deal involves large agricultural/industrial shipments from France and the Low Countries to Germany, this would work.

Key to the TL is that Petain and Co. still takes over the French government, and it is with this new Axis friendly government (along with a non-Churchill govt in the uk) that Hitler makes his peace. My assumption was that the new French regime would be sufficiently fascist and sympathetic to make German occupation redundant; obviously, if it doesn't, than Germany simply pulling out of France is not in the running.
 

sharlin

Banned
There's still no point in attacking Siberia. Siberia does not have the resources the Japanese need. Although we know there is oil in Siberia now, even by todays standards its a bugger to get out of the ground because of the weather, the japanese don't have access to the tech required to get the Siberia resources. They NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE *gasp* EEEEEEEEEEEED to attack the DEI, Singapore as well as the Phillipines as they can't have a major military threat sitting on their supply lines.
 

GarethC

Donor
*Japan still moves against French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies with little resistance
I'm not too critical of the European side of things (although I think you should look at other UK PM options than Halifax, like Chamberlain continuing), but I think this is unlikely.

Why will Japan not need to secure its supply lines to the DEI by conquering Malaya, Singapore, and the Philippines?

If there is no Mers-el-Kebir, and peace in Europe, then the French and Dutch will be able to reinforce their colonial militaries more than in OTL, and will more strongly contest Japanese operations. The Dutch particularly were intending this before they were interrupted by the German conquest.

The commercial interests in Britain and the US will see Japanese ambition as threats to the revenues from Malaya, the Philippines, and China, and pressure their governments to have a short victorious war - and most notably, if there isn't a North African front to suck up, well, all the tanks, most of the guns, and hundreds of aircraft, the Malayan campaign will be just that, only for the British.
 
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