PC: Arlen Specter wins a GOP presidential nomination

This might sound a bit like an odd scenario, but hear me out: what sort of conditions would be required for a moderate Republican like Arlen Specter to win a GOP primary post-Reagan? In real life he ran in 1996 but knew the overwhelming number of social conservatives in the party would prevent him from winning, but nonetheless he received some Northeastern support.

Would butterflying Reagan's 1980 victory and the doubling down of social conservatives and supply-siders be a decent starting point? Say the GOP remains in power during the late 1970s stagflation and fails to win an election for a few cycles. Could somebody with Specter's pro-labor and anti-free trade stances win enough primaries to be nominated by the party by wooing independents and moderates outside the South?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arlen_Specter
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Arlen_Specter.htm
 
As usual, the vice-presidency offers the best prospects. After all, Reagan was willing to have Spector's fellow Pennsylvania-moderate-Republican Schweiker as his running mate in 1976...
 
Having a prominent Jewish Republican running for the nod would certainly be a game changer (and he's a popular figure I like using for earlier Jewish presidents in alternate POTUS' list), but it might affect him like Romney's Mormonism did (both George and Mitt).
 
Having a prominent Jewish Republican running for the nod would certainly be a game changer (and he's a popular figure I like using for earlier Jewish presidents in alternate POTUS' list), but it might affect him like Romney's Mormonism did (both George and Mitt).

There just are not enough Jews voting in Republican primaries for that to make much difference IMO. In any event, what made Spector controversial among Republicans was not his religion, but his voting record, which was seen as much too liberal.
 
There just are not enough Jews voting in Republican primaries for that to make much difference IMO. In any event, what made Spector controversial among Republicans was not his religion, but his voting record, which was seen as much too liberal.

Oh, I agree. Most Jews tend to vote Democratic (something like 70% of American Jews are Democrats now), but having a rather prominent Jewish Republican in the GOP primary will be game-changing. And Specter was very much a moderate or even a liberal Republican which will hurt him outside of the Northeast and the Pacific States.
 
Oh, I agree. Most Jews tend to vote Democratic (something like 70% of American Jews are Democrats now), but having a rather prominent Jewish Republican in the GOP primary will be game-changing. And Specter was very much a moderate or even a liberal Republican which will hurt him outside of the Northeast and the Pacific States.

I'm wondering how he'd do in the Midwest, especially the Rust Belt states among working class voters. What if the Democrat he'd most likely be running against is more pro-outsourcing than he is? Looking at his record, before he made his party switch, Specter seemed to be fairly conservative on abortion, gay marriage, crime issues, gun control, etc.
 
I'm wondering how he'd do in the Midwest, especially the Rust Belt states among working class voters. What if the Democrat he'd most likely be running against is more pro-outsourcing than he is? Looking at his record, before he made his party switch, Specter seemed to be fairly conservative on abortion, gay marriage, crime issues, gun control, etc.
From the perspective of Liberals (Modern American or European) that certainly may be the case, but throughout his tenure he was viewed as being a Rockefeller-type Republican; Conservative on some Social issues like Crime or where it might have been bucking the popular trend to go to the other side (Gay Marriage), but otherwise fairly Liberal. It definitely complicates things as that wrote off most of the Republican Party base by the time he ran for President.

Now as @David T said the easiest way to go about is to make him Vice President, but I'd hinge that on him at least making a semi-significant effort at running for the Presidential nomination in '96. Looking at what I can find of his '96 run however, I'm not sure whether that is really possible; the '96 campaign he ran was one that was based around maintaining Abortion Rights as they were and opposition to the Christian Coalition. In the environment of '96 I can't see how either one of those themes, let alone both of them, are a winning combination in the Republican Primary, and either one of them essentially make him toxic further down the road for even a Vice-Presidential nod. On the other hand, it was him adopting those themes that allowed him to make himself known outside of Pennsylvania, if maybe not in the way he had hoped, whereas running on crime or terrorism might not have provided enough flash to separate him from the pack.

I suppose then he could have significantly dialed back his attacks on the Pro-Life wing and the Christian Coalition and so offend fewer primary voters, and indeed base his theme around crime rather than abortion whilst still giving it some measure of importance or with measured caveats. From there he may be able to put together some sort of coalition of more Libertarian-minded voters as he had hoped (he thought of himself as a true Goldwater Conservative), and it is also important that he get Steve Forbes on board with his campaign in any capacity as he was a significant draw for Centrist voters. Dropping Senator Lugar would be optimal as well for the same reasons, but the last remaining Centrist draw, Lamar Alexander, may be a bridge too far as he was jockeying with Phil Gram for the title of prime opposition to Bob Dole at the time.

If Specter can then take New Hampshire, not much of a stretch since Buchanan won it with (~27%), then I could see him performing well in the Northeast as he consolidates a significant portion of those voters who were backing Lamar Alexander (who I'd see dropping out with a fourth place finish in NH here), though maybe only actually winning a handful of primaries like Vermont and Massachusetts. His appeal would not extend beyond there very effectively except maybe on the West Coast, but he probably would have dropped out before California and Washington had held their primaries. So something like this:

genusmap.php

My head-canon has it where Specter carries a number of primaries, but again his appeal is somewhat limited and a noticeable minority of Forbes-Alexander-Lugar voters lend their support to Buchanan instead, though Specter in turn does appeal to some Dole supporters. This leads to a situation where Buchanan scores a number of much-needed victories throughout the weeks due the split vote between Dole and Specter. Ignoring calls to drop out of the race in favor of Dole, by mid-March the Pennsylvania Senator rests his hopes upon carrying the Midwest and the Pacific Coast where polling has but him in contention if not ahead, the plan being that in a contested convention Dole's delegates would opt for the more Moderate Arlen Specter then the firebrand conservatism represented by Pat Buchanan. His failure to win any of the four primaries on March 19th however, in addition to Buchanan carrying both Michigan and Wisconsin, effectively ends his campaign for the nomination; Specter drops out of the race and endorses Bob Dole the following day.

Almost exactly four years later Texas Governor George Bush begins his search for a running-mate after becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, with some advisers suggesting a well-known Pennsylvania Senator who had campaigned heavily for McCain throughout the primary season.........
 
Top