PC: Apartheid South Africa survives into the 2000s

Anyway Apartheid could survive in South Africa into the 2000s with a 1980s POD without civil war.

If Apartheid South Africa survived through the 1990s, could it pick China and Russia as foreign patrons.

What would be the regional impact
 
I would say that a country the size of South Africa would be hard pressed to maintain Apartheid. If it it does happen, I imagine that many OTL ANC members will be radicalized.
 

Bluesock

Banned
The 80's are too late. The townships were in total anarchy at this point, the government had little control over these area's. Much of the country was in total anarchy in non white area's at this point.
South Africa is a serious pariah state , why would Russia, which trained and supported the ANC all of a sudden change tune and begin supporting the apartheid government? Same with China.
Apartheid was dead and even the Nats realised this in the 70's, hence why we see soft reforms throughout this period until its dissolution in the 90's. At best it can last a few more years into the 90's if negotioations fail. But South Africa risks becoming a failed state without some serious reforms and an end to apartheid.
At best, perhaps there is a longer "transition" that lasts into the late 90's until an agreed to constitution can be made. But even that would not really be Apartheid.
If Viljoen and the conservatives use the military to overthrow the government we would see even more violence and South Africa would be even more of a pariah.
 
If the National Party hadn't won the election in 1948 and then promptly proceeded to seize the idiot ball, then a white minority government that gradually expands the franchise but still has whites dominate the country might have been hold things together until the 2000s. And such a one might stay in power by aligning themselves with the PRC for trade (and India if they have the brains to expand the franchise to Indians) and Russia to buy weapons from, making sanctions toothless.
Apartheid though was doomed from the start.
 
I would say that a country the size of South Africa would be hard pressed to maintain Apartheid. If it it does happen, I imagine that many OTL ANC members will be radicalized.
Also maybe radical Afrikaaner Nationalists with a pro Nazi-ideology might radicalize further aswell and become a problem for the governmwnt.
 
From an economic perspective, these things could have happened:

SAMCOR (South African Motor Company) would not have had Ford Motor Company taking a 45% stake in them, and buying them outright in 1998 to create Ford Motor Company of Southern Africa.
SAMCOR continued to exist due to the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act, although Ford Motor Company of Canada originally set them up due to a merger between Ford Motor Company of Canada and SIGMA (formerly American Motors Corporation of South Africa, who produced Mazdas)
In terms of product, given how South Africa has historically kept automobiles going beyond their lifecycle, you would have seen:

1983-1998 (??) Ford Cortina
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Although the Sierra launched in South Africa in 1983, the Cortina MkV would probably have continued as a budget model and also for tooling/local assembly reasons. The Sierra was built at Pretoria, so Cortina production would have continued at Port Elizabeth (in this ATL, it was never sold to Delta Motor Corporation - now General Motors of South Africa).

The new Cortina would have been available in 1.6 L, 2.0 GL, 2.0 Ghia, 3.0 GLS and 3.0 Ghia sedan and 1.6 L, 2.0 GL, 2.0 Ghia stationwagon versions.

Engines would have been the 1.6-litre/71hp 4-cylinder Pinto, 2.0-litre/99hp 4-cylinder Pinto and 3.0-litre/138hp V6 Essex engine.

Historically, South Africa has kept older models on due to South African local content laws - source here for 1983-1988 Toyota Hilux, which continued from 1988-1997 due to local content laws.

In OTL, the Ford Taunus (Ford Germany's version of the Cortina) continued until 1994 in Turkey after the tooling was acquired from Ford Germany.

1998-2005 Ford Telstar
480px-1991_Ford_Telstar_sedan%2C_front.jpg

A badge-engineered Mazda 626 sedan, in South Africa it was sold only with a 2.0-litre/130hp 4-cylinder petrol engine in LX, GLX and Ghia trim levels. In OTL, it was sold only from 1993-1998.
There is some precedent for this - in Colombia, Mazda kept the 1987-1992 626 hatchback and sedan going until around 2005 in OTL.

-------------

In this ATL, this could have happened, plausibly, given South Africa's local content laws on automobiles at the time and the market's propensity for keeping older designs in production (the Toyota Tazz, a 1987-1992 Toyota Corolla E90 continued into 2006 in South Africa - in OTL it was sold there from 1988-2006, whereas production ceased in 1992 globally, April 1994 in Australia).

I am not an expert on the South African automobile market, but this is based on what I know from various secondary sources (it's hard for me to find primary sources from the era of the 1980s and 1990s).
 
If South Africa had the most liberal immigration policy towards Europeans and some Asian too maybe. If the white population is in the 30 to 40 percent area the system might last longer. They could get a lot of immigration after ww1 and even a little before if they let people in pretty freely. The US and most other places are cutting back on immigration so that could benefit South Africa. If they want to continue being a white rule country they have to be willing to allow more whites in and preferably become a majority in some areas. If they consider Jews as white that could be a lot of people during the 30s. They could have accepted more Italians, Jews, Slavs, Germans, Portuguese, Japanese, Chinese, Irish, and Brits they could have greatly changed demographics. Afrikaans and Brits there would probably stay the dominant force if they are willing to work together and assimilate immigrants. But this apartheid system would only be temporary and less strict. They are basically buying time until they are majority and the black population is a minority or at least plurality of the population. That was the Anglo model for settler colonies. When the Afrikaans took over they only really wanted Dutch immigrants. The issue is there isn’t a enough of them and many are fine where there at. They have to be willing to accept people who want to leave where they are at. I think you could maybe give South Africa Brazilian type demographic. That country would likely be a continuation of the original republic.
 
I mean, I don't see why it's implausible for the apartheid regime to go out swinging and only collapse on January 1st, 2000, making things basically worse for everyone. Easiest way to succeed with the AHC
 
The Afrikaners afraid of losing control restricted emigration from Europe after WW2.

Yep.

Nate Silver did an analysis of that once. The focus was on malapportionment depressing voter turnout and South Africa was an example. Apartheid was voted in because "they took our jerbs" and there were enough lazy, stupid losers who decided using government violence was a better answer than improving themselves.

The apartheid regime rigged electoral districts so other ethnicities and other Afrikaner parties had no chance, and turnout nosedived. Anglos suffered some discrimination under the new regime. Obviously nowhere near the level of black or mixed South Africans.
 

Bluesock

Banned
If South Africa had the most liberal immigration policy towards Europeans and some Asian too maybe. If the white population is in the 30 to 40 percent area the system might last longer. They could get a lot of immigration after ww1 and even a little before if they let people in pretty freely. The US and most other places are cutting back on immigration so that could benefit South Africa. If they want to continue being a white rule country they have to be willing to allow more whites in and preferably become a majority in some areas. If they consider Jews as white that could be a lot of people during the 30s. They could have accepted more Italians, Jews, Slavs, Germans, Portuguese, Japanese, Chinese, Irish, and Brits they could have greatly changed demographics. Afrikaans and Brits there would probably stay the dominant force if they are willing to work together and assimilate immigrants. But this apartheid system would only be temporary and less strict. They are basically buying time until they are majority and the black population is a minority or at least plurality of the population. That was the Anglo model for settler colonies. When the Afrikaans took over they only really wanted Dutch immigrants. The issue is there isn’t a enough of them and many are fine where there at. They have to be willing to accept people who want to leave where they are at. I think you could maybe give South Africa Brazilian type demographic. That country would likely be a continuation of the original republic.
Even if more white immigration had been increased it is basically impossible to get to 30-40% of the population. Normally immigration is used to meet shortages in Labour. In South Africa there is no labour shortage in unskillefd labour as there are millions of dispossessed and oppressed Africans who are forced to work for next to nothing in the cities and mines. Where exactly is the unskilled Italian or Polish immigrant going to work in your scenorio? Apartheid and the Colour Bar before it essentially created a system whereby whites operated as skilled and semi skilled labour which created a solid middle and upper class, while blacks and other groups work as low skilled labour. Low black wages is what was able to sustain the white middle class, without it the white middle class does not exist, which defeats the entire purpose of Apartheid in South Africa.
 
South Africa is a serious pariah state , why would Russia, which trained and supported the ANC all of a sudden change tune and begin supporting the apartheid government? Same with China.
I figured since the end of the cold war ended significant ties with the ANC and given the two countries quasi-policy of non-interference in domestic affairs of states and relationship with other pariah states such as Iran,North Korea, and Sudan. Chinese need for natural resources along with just sticking to the United States. I figured China and Russia could act as patrons.
 
As far as white immigration,that was one of the pitfalls for the Rhodesian elite,they didn't want masses of poor displaced people's coming in,same with apartheid politics,it was a skewed system favoring Afrikaners. While I'm there,Ian Smith and his boyos were lousy at diplomacy,they continually dissed the Laborites running England,they could have put in a House of Lords system with minor Chiefs and big European farmers/traders,how could Britain beef about that?
 
Even if more white immigration had been increased it is basically impossible to get to 30-40% of the population. Normally immigration is used to meet shortages in Labour. In South Africa there is no labour shortage in unskillefd labour as there are millions of dispossessed and oppressed Africans who are forced to work for next to nothing in the cities and mines. Where exactly is the unskilled Italian or Polish immigrant going to work in your scenorio? Apartheid and the Colour Bar before it essentially created a system whereby whites operated as skilled and semi skilled labour which created a solid middle and upper class, while blacks and other groups work as low skilled labour. Low black wages is what was able to sustain the white middle class, without it the white middle class does not exist, which defeats the entire purpose of Apartheid in South Africa.
Maybe they could just give white people free stuff. So, maybe a Polish person immigrates to South Africa, and is given a nice house and a piece of land with some black servants. A sort of race based socialist system in which whites are given lots of privileges and free stuff, while blacks end up paying for all that stuff in the form of very cheap labor. The white families coming in will fulfill their role just by reproducing. That becomes an incentive for European immigrants to come to South Africa. Unrealistic, I'm pretty sure, but it's an idea for the softer AHers, like myself, here.
 

Bluesock

Banned
Maybe they could just give white people free stuff. So, maybe a Polish person immigrates to South Africa, and is given a nice house and a piece of land with some black servants. A sort of race based socialist system in which whites are given lots of privileges and free stuff, while blacks end up paying for all that stuff in the form of very cheap labor. The white families coming in will fulfill their role just by reproducing. That becomes an incentive for European immigrants to come to South Africa. Unrealistic, I'm pretty sure, but it's an idea for the softer AHers, like myself, here.
Thats what happened under apartheid. In fact that basically what I described. The Afrikaaners were basically uplifted from poverty from that system
How are you going to do that for 40% of the populatuon?Its ASB.
 
Thats what happened under apartheid. In fact that basically what I described. The Afrikaaners were basically uplifted from poverty from that system
How are you going to do that for 40% of the populatuon?Its ASB.
Well, you said that a Polish immigrant wouldn't come in because they would have no where to work, but I said that a Polish immigrant would come precisely because they don't have to work. As to the 40% population thing, I guess the 60% would work for the 40%? I not much of a numbers person, so I don't know how that will work. Maybe South Africa gets a patron who financially supports it, in return for its resources. South Africa could also do a lot of ethnic cleansing of blacks to other colonies, who are then allowed to return as annual workers, who only arrive to seasonally work on stuff for the White government, but who are then forced to return to other areas when they have completed their work for the year. I don't remember how large the black population of the American South was, but I'm sure that it was only a little bit above the white populations generally. Someone could look into that, and then see how that would for South Africa.
 
Well, you said that a Polish immigrant wouldn't come in because they would have no where to work, but I said that a Polish immigrant would come precisely because they don't have to work. As to the 40% population thing, I guess the 60% would work for the 40%? I not much of a numbers person, so I don't know how that will work. Maybe South Africa gets a patron who financially supports it, in return for its resources. South Africa could also do a lot of ethnic cleansing of blacks to other colonies, who are then allowed to return as annual workers, who only arrive to seasonally work on stuff for the White government, but who are then forced to return to other areas when they have completed their work for the year. I don't remember how large the black population of the American South was, but I'm sure that it was only a little bit above the white populations generally. Someone could look into that, and then see how that would for South Africa.

White people in South Africa still had to work during apartheid. The government didn't give every white person money just because they were white.
 
They could definitely last longer after all North Korea has. If a civil war starts it will frighten the whites into supporting the government, the way the Syrian civil war has frightened Syrians of minority religions into supporting their government. Then I could see something along the lines of the Syrian civil war where the government controls some areas but not others. Effectively losing control of large parts of the country. Which also ups the ratio of whites in areas they do control I think such a situation could last quite a while. There is also a situation where there is a right wing coup in response to the end of apartheid and the new government unleashes a Stalinesque terror on the black population. Either way if the regime surives it will be with more horror and bloodshed then what came before it.
 
Not an expert by any means, but they can get immigrants from the Soviet republics fleeing the uncertainty by promising them a white paradise. Bonus points, target the Soviet Jews. Then try for the rest of Eastern Europe. Of course where the money comes from this is a good question, but there were states willing to work with apartheid regimes and there were natural resources in South Africa. I think it can be made to survive, though with (even more) blood and misery.
 
Maybe it was already mentioned, the Afrikaners wouldn’t want to give up power or cultural dominance. So those Eastern European immigrants would have to be Afrikaner nized so to speak. But this is an interesting forum so far.

Keep it up
 
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