PC: Anti-Masons and National Republicans nominate William Wirt in 1832?

I've gotten back to reading The Rise of American Democracy: Jefferson to Lincoln, I read the Workingman and Nullifer chapters in the last few days, basically everything up to the election of 1832 and the beginning of Jackson's second term. I've enjoyed learning about the obscure political parties (might as well call them sects given their magnificently tiny strength), the feudal aristocracies that hold their grips on Virginia and South Carolina, and The Bank War. But what I always pay attention to the most is the Presidential elections. Here I learned that the Anti-Masons nominated Wirt 3 months before the National Republicans nominated Clay (a Mason himself).

Now, what are the chances that Clay, deciding to be the sneak that Jackson accused him, decided to stay in Congress and maneuver Wirt as also the N. Republican nominee. Basically an early Whig Party without the other various anti-Jacksonians (most prominently the Nullifiers in the South who only broke with Jackson fully after 1833 began). Wirt himself was no enemy of the Masons (being one himself, yes it's very weird but he was the Anti-Mason Party nominee) but would the his first party except this alliance with Clay? Would their hatred of King Jackass be stronger then the then distrust of each other? Could the Anti-Jacksonites in the South, if not support them outright, procure some Electoral Votes for this ticket come time to fight against the seemingly Centralist Jackson?

Also, given that most of the South was unchallenged by Clay or Wirt (Mississippi, Missouri, Georgia, and Alabama), could we see an actual fight down there, as well as take some of the lost states up North (like 30 vote Pennsylvania, the home of the former Second Nation Bank)? I'll admit that the book didn't cover this very much but I think that the combined forces could have a chance of beating Jackson as his re-election wasn't an assured thing given all that was going on. (Not they'd need it, if this hypothetical ticket took New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia it would have 145 out of 144 EV needed to win. THAT would cause a ruckus very likely.)

And one final topic. Wirt died in 1834, no sure how. If he died during office who would be his chosen VP (and thus first likely VP to ascend to the office)? This could also be potentially a big change in the office of the Vice-Presidency, as a less bullheaded man then Tyler might be less inclined to declare themselves President, and may by precedent change how the office acts in the future.
 
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I've gotten back to reading The Rise of American Democracy: Jefferson to Lincoln, I read the Workingman and Nullifer chapters in the last few days, basically everything up to the election of 1832 and the beginning of Jackson's second term. I've enjoyed learning about the obscure political parties (might as well call them sects given their magnificently tiny strength), the feudal aristocracies that hold their grips on Virginia and South Carolina, and The Bank War. But what I always pay attention to the most is the Presidential elections. Here I learned that the Anti-Masons nominated Wirt 3 months before the National Republicans nominated Clay (a Mason himself).

Now, what are the chances that Clay, deciding to be the sneak that Jackson accused him, decided to stay in Congress and maneuver Wirt as also the N. Republican nominee. Basically an early Whig Party without the other various anti-Jacksonians (most prominently the Nullifiers in the South who only broke with Jackson fully after 1833 began). Wirt himself was no enemy of the Masons (being one himself, yes it's very weird but he was the Anti-Mason Party nominee) but would the his first party except this alliance with Clay? Would their hatred of King Jackass be stronger then the then distrust of each other? Could the Anti-Jacksonites in the South, if not support them outright, procure some Electoral Votes for this ticket come time to fight against the seemingly Centralist Jackson?

Also, given that most of the South was unchallenged by Clay or Wirt (Mississippi, Missouri, Georgia, and Alabama), could we see an actual fight down there, as well as take some of the lost states up North (like 30 vote Pennsylvania, the home of the former Second Nation Bank)? I'll admit that the book didn't cover this very much but I think that the combined forces could have a chance of beating Jackson as his re-election wasn't an assured thing given all that was going on. (Not they'd need it, if this hypothetical ticket took New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia it would have 145 out of 144 EV needed to win. THAT would cause a ruckus very likely.)

And one final topic. Wirt died in 1834, no sure how. If he died during office who would be his chosen VP (and thus first likely VP to ascend to the office)? This could also be potentially a big change in the office of the Vice-Presidency, as a less bullheaded man then Tyler might be less inclined to declare themselves President, and may by precedent change how the office acts in the future.

The first thing to remember is that Jackson was still extremely popular in the South--except for South Carolina--in 1832. If he wasn't challenged in much of the region, it was because he was rightly seen to be unbeatable there. It was only *after* he was re-elected that a strong opposition to the Democrats developed due partly to the Force Bill and later to the removal of the deposits and then to the choice of the Northerner Van Buren as Jackson's successor in 1836. I see no reason to think that Wirt would win any southern state Clay lost; Antimasonry was weak in the South. Despite his having been a Virginian for many years, there is no way Wirt will carry Virginia, for example, which voted 3-1 for Jackson in 1832 in OTL, http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1832.txt and twice voted for the northerner Van Buren--against the slaveholder Hugh White in 1836 and (despite the bad economy) against the Virginia-born Harrison (with Tyler as his running mate) in 1840. Incidentally, Wirt's arguing the case of the Cherokees before the Supreme Court will not help him in the South, where Jackson's Indian policy was very popular. It's even conceivable Wirt will lose Clay's home state of Kentucky.

Even if we assume that Wirt is going to win every vote Clay did in OTL (and of course every vote Wirt himself got) that doesn't take a single electoral vote away from Jackson. In Pennsylvania, Wirt *was* the sole candidate against Jackson, and still lost by more than 15 points. Jackson was still personally popular in Pennsylvania, despite his position on the Bank. Nor does it seem likely to me that substituting Wirt for Clay would defeat Jackson in Ohio, where Clay's "American System" was quite popular.

Jackson's personal popularity seems to me to make him invulnerable in 1832. It helped him win the votes of many Pennsylvanians who disagreed with him on the Bank, and many southerners who feared he wasn't anti-tariff enough. (And anyway, his opposition, whoever it would nominate, would contain strong pro-tariff elements which would make it impossible to use the tariff issue effectively against him in the South.) Both the southerners and the Pennsylvanians disliked Van Buren, incidentally, but as usual the choice of vice-presidential candidates didn't matter much.
 
Interesting. I had thought if the combined efforts of the Anti-Mason and National Republican party machinery they could produce a different campaign, a different offensive against Jackson, and with that a different outcome in the race in at least a few state (like New Hampshire or Maine, which I'm still trying to figure out why Jackson won so handily, or New Jersey which did come down to the wire).

You're certain that Jackson was unbeatable in 1832? A worse result in New Jersey (lost by Clay with under 400 votes and worth 8 EV), New York (by over 13,000 votes [might seem big but think 5% of the vote in the largest state] and worth 42 EV), and Ohio (by slightly over 4,700 votes and worth 21 EV) would have put Jackson at 148 Electoral Votes (just barely past the 144 needed to win). If this AM-NR ticket could get the other 2 New England state (Maine and New Hampshire, alongside what they got OTL) that would put them at 144 votes exactly.

I still say it's possible, but would require some missteps on the Jackson front after the ticket is made, and a large effort on the AM-NR front.
 
Maine and New Hampshire were Democratic-leaning states throughout the period of the Second American Party System. This is especially true of New Hampshire, which even easily went for Van Buren in 1840. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1840.txt/ They had gone for John Quincy Adams in 1824 and 1828 but that was simply a matter of New England sectional loyalty.

To give you some idea of how Democratic New Hampshire was: "In the quarter century after 1829, a democratic governor ruled the state ever year but one." http://books.google.com/books?id=c3KAqT8Dz70C&pg=PA162
 
Maine and New Hampshire were Democratic-leaning states throughout the period of the Second American Party System. This is especially true of New Hampshire, which even easily went for Van Buren in 1840. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1840.txt/ They had gone for John Quincy Adams in 1824 and 1828 but that was simply a matter of New England sectional loyalty.

To give you some idea of how Democratic New Hampshire was: "In the quarter century after 1829, a democratic governor ruled the state ever year but one." http://books.google.com/books?id=c3KAqT8Dz70C&pg=PA162

Impressive, I always saw New England as a sort of block that stuck together since the Federalist Era, but I overlooked the individual histories. Any feedback on the chance they could take the states I mentioned, as well as maybe some others or if any surprises would come in a House vote?
 
I'd like to bump this with another question: Assuming WW is still nominated, and still loses, could Henry Clay emerge as the 1836 Whig nominee? With an earlier fusion of the anti-Jacksonian factions, and no two loses to stain his name, could Clay gather enough support to challenge Van Buren one-on-one and still win?
 
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