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OK, I know this may sound a bit crazy, but please hear me out.
The scenario I picture is basically this:
King Sebastian of Portugal has a vision in which God tells him to abandon his plans to lead a crusade to Northern Africa. Instead, the young king should focus on expanding and consolidating his country's holds in Asia, as well as spreading christianity throughout that continent through missioneering.
Sebastian does just that, of course, because who the fuck is he to argue against God, right? This butterflies away his foolish death at the battle of Alcaçar-Quibir, thereby safeguarding Portuguese independence for a little longer (when Sebastian died IOTL the throne passed to his aged uncle and eventually to his counsin the King of Spain). I'm not exactly sure of how long Sebastian would have lived IOTL because he was heavily inbred and that doesn't exactly make for a very healthy person, but let's assume he manages to live a normal lifespan (let's say he dies in 1627 at the age of seventy). During his reign, Portugal greatly improves defense and administration in its Asian holdings, conquers new ones (not only fortified trade ports but also larger pieces of land with potential for agricultural development) and sends massive amounts of settlers and missionaries there. Foregin policy is also more careful, and so they manage to remain in good terms with some more Asian states and avoid a lot of trouble (I'd like them not to get expelled from Japan, for example).
Let's say Sebastian manages to reproduce (there is no indication that he was infertile although that is fairly probable) and has son with the same name as him.
Sebastian II becomes king of Portugal after his father dies and keeps the country pretty much in the same course. However, he isn't as lucky as his father and ends up dying without children.
This starts a succession crisis similar to the one there was IOTL 1580. The main contenders would be the Spanish Habsburgs, the descendents of D.António Prior do Crato and the house of Braganza. The war drags for long and ends with different results across the Portuguese Empire. While mainland Portugal, Brasil and Angola end up going for the Spanish pretender, forces loyal to the Braganzas or the D.António's house of Aviz remain in control of Portugal's Eastern territories.
The would-be king of Portugal eventually moves to one of these territories and they end up becoming a country of their own, still called Portugal but in fact just a collection of lands scattered across Asia.
The new asian Kingdom of Portugal expands and builds up a stable economy based on trade. I imagine that being cut off from Lisbon would be a problem at first, but they could keep a connection to Europe through an allied country (Britain would probably support them and recognize them as the "real" Kingdom of Portugal). As was frequently the case in Portuguese Asia but even more so now, mixed-marriages are heavily encouraged, thereby leading to the formation of a large Catholic Eurasian community of varied origins. Thanks to administrative centralism and a high degree of interconnectedness between different cities, these Eurasians (from Goa to Macau) see themselves as one people, the Portuguese people, and they all end up speaking a heavily "creolized" Portuguese as their lingua franca.
In the meanwhile, european Portugal ends up being effectively incorporated into Spain due to a successful Iberian Union, making Asian Portugal the only Portugal for all intents and purposes.
So, as I said before, this is a bit of a crazy idea, but I quite like it, and I don't really think of it as being completely impossible. I think a sufficiently well-built TL could make it happen. Therefore, I'd like to launch a few questions for discussion:
What exactly would I need to change in Portuguese Asia in order to make into a viable country. I already mentioned that conquering larger pieces of land that could be used for agriculture would be useful, but what could this pieces of land be? Also, what reforms could make Portuguese holdings in this contitent easier to defend and maintain?
Do I have to get rid of the Dutch? If the they still gain their independence ITTL, they could very possibly jeopardise the viability of this whole scenario. I think Asian Portugal might stand a chance agaisnt them, but is it to risky? Maybe it's better for me to get rid of them somehow. They are a nascent country, so this shouldn't be too difficult.
What would be the capital of this Asian Kingdom of Portugal? I'm thinking either Goa, Malacca or Macau. Which one would be more suitable?
How would this play out in the long run? How would the country develop? How would it affect the world? You know, usual AH stuff .
Thanks for reading guys! I look forward to reading your responses.