PC and WI: Paris Peace Accords Succeed 1968

Largely inspired by this event.

With a PoD no earlier than May 10, 1968, how plausible is it that LBJ could have reached some kind of agreement with the PRNV before he left office in early 69? What might such an agreement have looked like?
 
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The problem is that any NV agreement would have to be enforced by US airpower- a sticking point was no coalition government which, like Laos, merely be a fig leaf for a Northern takeover.

Politically...

Humphrey: "We brought peace to Vietnam." Still hopeless on domestic issues which will decide the '68 election.

Nixon/RFK: both men's plans of Vietnamization can still go ahead as planned, largely as a safety measure. Both pivot to their domestic platforms. Butterflies could prevent Kennedy's assassination, and give him a boost in antiwar Oregon, thus giving him a clean primary sweep.

McCarthy: Meh.

Reagan: kills his chances as an uber-hawk.
 
I think that if it looks like the Vietnam war has ended in something other than a US defeat I am certain that Humphrey wins, unless Johnson runs, in which case he wins (thought he may die earlier than in OTL)

In OTL the 1968 election was close. Nixon said he had a secret plan and Johnson seemed to be getting nowhere.

Also if it looks like the war is ending there would have been less touble at the Chicago convention.
 
Alright, let me ask about a PoD -- AIUI, the reason the Accords didn't succeed around this time was that RoV had walked out of the talks, based on communiques with the Nixon campaign that they'd get a better deal under his administration.

Am I right? If so, what might prevent this? Could Bobby surviving possibly butterfly into it?
 
I think Nixon and Chennault's influence is overrated. Thieu knew it was a bad deal, especially if the US was willing to toss him overboard to secure a Democratic victory as he thought. He despised & distrusted RFK- I've mentioned the NVA uniform cartoons ad infinitum, as well as the abrupt recall of the SVN ambassador in DC on March 16th.

With regards to RFK surviving: for a long time (since 1966) he advocated a coalition but was pilloried for doing so. During the campaign he "pulled an Obama" (or Obama pulled a Kennedy ;)) by ruling out only abrupt McGovernite withdrawal and Reaganite escalation. That leaves a lot of maneuvering room- another Nixon parallel. He would not expose the Chennault issue for two reasons.

a) Lyndon & Edna would never give him the info. I need not explain why.

b) National security reasons. RFK had already got into short-lived trouble "National security, and that's all the answer you're gonna get!" with the MLK wiretapping revelations (which was a factor in the OTL Oregon loss) and LBJ got the Chennault information through illegal wiretaps of the SVN embassy. Devious operators like Bobby don't want to blow one of their preferred operational methods.
 
But does Bobby really need to blow Chenault's cover for his survival to butterfly away their sabotage?

If Thieu thinks there's a very good chance that Nixon could lose, or even sees him lose, could that make him rethink pulling out? Or maybe even control his animosity for Bobby? Especially after the latter rules out withdrawal...
 
Thieu was angered at LBJ's coalition talk and especially infuriated by the bombing halt. IOTL many of his top advisors publicly announced their support of Nixon during October, which was disconcerting, to say the least, to LBJ. While RFK might be tempted to unleash "the forces of hell" after the election, it would be a better idea to hold off until they meet face-to-face. Thieu was a shrewd judge of world & US political opinion most of the time, and in some ways he would have a better chance with RFK. Nixon needs the hawks desperately to win. RFK needs the doves but he can easily jettison them after the election- for ideological as much as Indochinese reasons. RFK has more credibility to enforce a settlement domestically than Nixon. For him, Vietnamization is an easy stance- with the bonus of LBJ-bashing. After all, that was his brother's own Vietnam strategy, a sort of "Back to the Future" sort of thing.
 
Here's the problem with that.

North Vietnam: does not want LBJ and Thieu to get an agreement that guarantees the survival of Thieu's government, believing that based on RFK's own record, he will allow a coalition to form instead.

LBJ: is a lame-duck, with all the ineffectiveness that means.

RFK: will not stake as much on Thieu personally, but he will probably come to realize that Thieu, while far from perfect, is the best option available. He's nothing if not a shrewd negotiator and a realist.

Thieu: wants GVN to be recognized as legitimate.

Possible terms: withdrawal to the 38th parallel, a demilitarized zone, and an informal non-aggression pact. RFK will not want permanent bases in RVN. That means shipping US frontline equipment. My usual list is as follows: Phantoms, Skyhawks, Herk tankers, ECM equipment and refuelling probes. Thieu was already going through the process of removing as much dead wood from the officer corps as possible, since the RCC and of course Ky (IMO a right-wing Chavez), were hardly enthusiastic.
 
Probably. RFK is not going to want it to drag on beyond mid-1969 if possible- he has a lengthy domestic agenda to enact, and beyond that it becomes his war.
 
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