PC and WI: CSA "Win" Gettysburg?

[John Fredrick Parker]

Suppose* the ANV manages to secure Little Round Top prior to the start of the Battle of Gettysburg. How does the second day of battle (July 2, 1863) progress differently? Given this, how does this affect the third day of battle (July 3)? Assume it still rains July 4 -- has Lee now won the Battle? If not, what is the outcome?

How, given this altered battle, is the Gettysburg Campaign affected? For example, I'd think it likely that Vicksburg is still going to fall July 4, so a big reason that Lee is in Pennsylvania in the first place is now a moot point -- how soon would (or could) he hear of this, and what is he now hoping to achieve? And how -- given all this -- is the course of the war altered?

*inspired by the PoD in "Bring the Jubilee"

 

[MN.Gruber06]

This obviously depends solely on how soundly the Union Army is beaten. If the Confederacy holds all the ground at Gettysburg by July 4th, it still doesn't have the means to hold it, and a strategic Union withdrawal of its armies after realizing that the situation could no longer be pursued would probably take place. Meade was well known to be very apprehensive and slow in his decision making, so launching a counter offensive on enemy held high ground like we saw from the likes of Lee (which, mind you, was VERY unlike Lee) would probably not occur, and Meade would most likely simply withdraw until he could fight on ground of his choosing, as challenging the Confederates for a strategically insignificant village in Pennsylvania is of little consequence on the overall scale of the war.

Now...if Meade's forces could be encircled, probably by the Rebs taking IMMEDIATE advantage of its newly captured Little Round Top position by exploiting the rear of the Union's lines, then you pretty much change the entire outcome of the war right there. The destruction of the Army of the Potomac would be...yeah. World changing.

 

[Daztur]

Indeed. If Lee wins a hard-fought battle and then is stuck on some hills in Pennslyvania without supplies or reinforcements while Meade retreats south in good order and gets in between Lee and his lines of retreat and gets from reinforcements as a lot of the north panics it could end up even worse for Lee than IOTL.

 

[RousseauX]

Suppose* the ANV manages to secure Little Round Top prior to the start of the Battle of Gettysburg. How does the second day of battle (July 2, 1863) progress differently? Given this, how does this affect the third day of battle (July 3)? Assume it still rains July 4 -- has Lee now won the Battle? If not, what is the outcome?

The problem with this is that

1) Early (IIRC)'s division did pass by Gettysburg a few days before the battle, but simply marched past it after brushing aside northern militiamen. Meaning Gettysubrg was not a strategically important piece of territory.
2) Buford only decided to make a stand -because- he thought the ridges on the south of the town would make a good defensible position, if the Confederates were already occupying them, he simply wouldn't engage and hence the battle wouldn't take place.

So, you have to have:

a) Lee Has to decide to make a stand at Gettysburg
b) Meade decides to fight there even though one of important reasons why he did so OTL is precisely because the union held the high ground south of the town.

In other words, if elements of the ANV (let's just say Early's division) simply occupies Little Round Top, chances are there is no battle, Little Round Top is just one hill amongst a thousand with nothing really to make it worth fighting over. OTL was basically Meade deciding to fight at Gettysburg because he held the high ground, while Lee was on a roll after the crushing victory the first day.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Now...if Meade's forces could be encircled, probably by the Rebs taking IMMEDIATE advantage of its newly captured Little Round Top position by exploiting the rear of the Union's lines, then you pretty much change the entire outcome of the war right there. The destruction of the Army of the Potomac would be...yeah. World changing.

Hm, so if Little Round Top is taken prior to the dawn of July 1st, the complete smashing of the AoP by July 4th actually becomes plausible? So all those "CSA Wins the War at Gettysburg" TLs actually have a point?

 

[MN.Gruber06]

Hm, so if Little Round Top is taken prior to the dawn of July 1st, the complete smashing of the AoP by July 4th actually becomes plausible? So all those "CSA Wins the War at Gettysburg" TLs actually have a point?

Prior to July 1st? No, because then Buford never chooses the terrain to begin with.

EDIT: See RousseauX's post.

 

[MN.Gruber06]

So, you have to have:

a) Lee Has to decide to make a stand at Gettysburg
b) Meade decides to fight there even though one of important reasons why he did so OTL is precisely because the union held the high ground south of the town.

Right here. These two conditions have to be met in order for the battle to even start. Your POD, however, could come during Chamberlain and the 20th Maine's defense of Little Round Top. Maybe the Confederate fire is much more effective, maybe Chamberlain is killed early on and the Regiment retreats, maybe they run out of ammunition too early, maybe Chamberlain doesn't convince the 100+ odd deserters from the 2nd Maine regiment prior to the battle to renew their contracts and join the 20th Regiment, and as a result is unable to hold the ground under decreased numbers.

So long as the Rebels can take Little Round Top and then exploit the advantage of having it IMMEDIATELY (as in, within the first half hour) after taking it, you present the possibility to sweep the entire Union Army from the field, if not encircle it with relative ease. Remember, though only if the Rebels can consolidate their gains on the hill before Meade notices it, and only if they can encircle the Union Army and provide devastating enfilading fire on the entire Union line in an extremely hasty manner. In fact, I think Lee would have to put 100% of his effort into getting cannons and more men to the top in order for this to be a possibility. If they don't take advantage immediately, Meade will notice, in which case he'll just withdraw and leave the Confederates with a bunch of strategically invaluable hills in the middle of Pennsylvania.

 

[RousseauX]

So long as the Rebels can take Little Round Top and then exploit the advantage of having it IMMEDIATELY (as in, within the first half hour) after taking it, you present the possibility to sweep the entire Union Army from the field, if not encircle it with relative ease. Remember, though only if the Rebels can consolidate their gains on the hill before Meade notices it, and only if they can encircle the Union Army and provide devastating enfilading fire on the entire Union line in an extremely hasty manner. In fact, I think Lee would have to put 100% of his effort into getting cannons and more men to the top in order for this to be a possibility. If they don't take advantage immediately, Meade will notice, in which case he'll just withdraw and leave the Confederates with a bunch of strategically invaluable hills in the middle of Pennsylvania.

Not really, the immediate forces which would take the round top was like 1-2 regiments, who are facing reinforcements counterattacking, those forces are not going to encircle the union army by themselves.

The true advantage taking little round top offers would be if the Confederates could bring up artillery up the hills, but that's not something you can do in like half an hour either.

 

[MN.Gruber06]

Not really, the immediate forces which took the round top was like 1-2 regiments, who are facing reinforcements counterattacking, those forces are not going to encircle the union army by themselves.

The true advantage taking little round top offers would be if the Confederates could bring up artillery up the hills, but that's not something you can do in like half an hour either.

Exactly. Thus why Lee would have to put pretty much 100% of his effort (or whatever maximum amount he could spare without Meade noticing) to taking advantage of the now open southern flank of the Union line. This basically means getting cannons and long-range direct fire weapon systems (aka artillery) to the top of Little Round Top, which is not impossible in less than half an hour, just impractical. If Lee can keep reinforcing the hill with more regiments, or if Chamberlain's regiment falls early (i.e. during the first attack on the hill or something) then the majority of the federal casualty points, aid stations, supply points and ammo supply points that were behind the main Union line on Cemetery Ridge (to the east) would be at risk of being captured as well.

EDIT: The argument to this being that if Lee notices that his attack on the extreme southern flank of the Union line at Round Top had succeeded, then Meade probably does too.

 

[Anaxagoras]

It is true that a battlefield defeat of the AotP by the AoNV at Gettysburg, even on the scale of Second Manassas, is not going to result in the destruction of the Union army. Meade's plan was simply to fall back on the Pipe Creek line and prepare to fight another battle. From a military point of view, a Confederate victory at Gettysburg may not mean much.

But since it's war we're talking about, who cares about military affairs? Politics and diplomacy are much more important. Opposition to the war in the North was rising steadily throughout 1863 as Grant's efforts to capture Vicksburg seemed futile and as Lee seemed to swat away one general after another in the East. IOTL, opposition to the draft and to emancipation provoked the worst riots in American history just weeks after the victories at Gettysburg and Vicksburg. If Lee had inflicted yet another major battlefield defeat on the Union army - on Northern soil, no less! - the Lincoln administration will have suffered a severe blow in terms of credibility. You'd begin to hear proposals for a negotiated peace, more opposition to conscription, a severe blow to the value of greenbacks, and more prominent Democrats drifting into the Copperhead camp.

Diplomatically, a Union defeat at Gettysburg could have proven an even greater disaster. While the Emancipation Proclamation had helped dissuade Britain from intervening on the side of the Confederacy, it had not fully eliminated the possibility. On June 30, John Roebuck MP placed a proposal to recognize the Confederacy in concert with France (with Napoleon III having told him that he would go forward with recognition if the British did the same). The British were already upset with the Americans due to the Peterhof Affair earlier in the year. If the tidings of the next packet ship had brought word of a great Confederate victory rather than a disastrous defeat, the proposal would have had a much greater chance of success.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Ok, let's go with something like Chamberlin not getting back his deserters before the battle, and Little Round Top falls on the second day? What are the practical expectations of how Lee might take advantage of this win -- if getting artillery to the hill in the next half hour is unlikely, how short a time is reasonable? And given these changes to the second day, how does the third play out differently?

 

[MN.Gruber06]

Ok, let's go with something like Chamberlin not getting back his deserters before the battle, and Little Round Top falls on the second day? What are the practical expectations of how Lee might take advantage of this win -- if getting artillery to the hill in the next half hour is unlikely, how short a time is reasonable? And given these changes to the second day, how does the third play out differently?

Those are questions I do not have the answer to, as I was not an artillery crewmember during the 19th century, nor have I ever seen the terrain at Gettysburg for myself. However, I can imagine the changes would be drastic. In addition to Anaxagoras' post, I also think a defeat of the Union at Gettysburg could cost Lincoln his reelection in 1864.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Those are questions I do not have the answer to, as I was not an artillery crewmember during the 19th century, nor have I ever seen the terrain at Gettysburg for myself.

Fair enough

 

[ChaosNDiscord]

I can tell you for a fact that the hill would be a real pain to lug cannon up, along with all the shot and so forth for the guns. The side facing the confederate main body is steep and rocky, the southen side fairly steep and fairly heavily wooded even today (and there's a road and a few paths going up it now). The position did dominate the Union line though, so I imagine you'd have a series of mad Union counterattacks while the Rebs tried to reinforce and bring up guns. Some of the plaques there mentioned there were lots of sharpshooters around on both sides and from all the rocky terrain it's easy to see how you could have a lot of sniper work even in that era.

I think by the time the rebs had guns up, even if the Union hadn't driven them off they'd simply pull out. With Sickels way out front it completely disrupted the confederate attack so the attack on roundtop came in late in the day. By the time the boys in grey could follow that up, the Union would have made a tactical advance to the rear.

At least that's my opinion.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

OTL was basically Meade deciding to fight at Gettysburg because he held the high ground, while Lee was on a roll after the crushing victory the first day.

I basically agree with your post but for one quibble. The Union simply being forced back onto the strategic high ground hardly counts as a crushing victory by the CSA on the 1st day. Granted, the Union casualties suffered on this initial day were 1/2 again as much as Lee's...

 

[Elfwine]

Putting any significant amount of artillery on LRP will be measured in hours. And by then, Weed's brigade, the Pennsylvania Reserves (two brigades), and pieces of 12th and 6th Corps will be able to push away whatever Lee can place there.

Chamberlain's stand was a brave one and deserves to be honored, but it should be honored as the kind of performance that lead to the Union victory, not as the 20th Maine being all that stood between Lee rolling up Meade and Lee being repulsed.

And Sickles being in front did more to disrupt the Union defense than the Confederate offense, but that's another rant.

In my opinion from years of reading on the subject:
If you want a Confederate win on day 2, having Longstreet able to throw in Pickett to back up McLaws and Anderson (and Anderson's full division advancing instead of three of five brigades, with one bogged down skirmishing and one doing next to nothing) might give the CSA the punch to force Meade to withdraw.

But then what?

Even if everything goes right for the CSA, 6th Corps and 12th Corps are largely intact (6th is tired, that's the main thing), and Meade is closer to his reinforcements than Lee is to his.

I doubt a victory at Gettysburg that simply forces the AoP is going to be stunning enough to influence anyone to vote in favor of recognizing the Confederacy, especially with news of Vicksburg arriving.

Militarily, Lee - as of July (meaning, without an earlier POD) doesn't have the force to fight another large scale battle and win - at least not vs. someone as solid as Meade.

He might well try, but I wouldn't bet on him.

 

[Fiver]

Diplomatically, a Union defeat at Gettysburg could have proven an even greater disaster. While the Emancipation Proclamation had helped dissuade Britain from intervening on the side of the Confederacy, it had not fully eliminated the possibility. On June 30, John Roebuck MP placed a proposal to recognize the Confederacy in concert with France (with Napoleon III having told him that he would go forward with recognition if the British did the same). The British were already upset with the Americans due to the Peterhof Affair earlier in the year. If the tidings of the next packet ship had brought word of a great Confederate victory rather than a disastrous defeat, the proposal would have had a much greater chance of success.

Roebuck's proposal had gained no support whatsoever and he withdrew it before news of Gettysburg reached Britain. And that's in spite of Britain expecting the Confederacy to win at Gettysburg.

 

[sloreck]

The best the ANV can do is to force the AoP away from Gettysburg, hold the field, and inflict more Union casualties than OTL while they suffer less. As another poster noted, Meade will withdraw to Pipe Creek where he wanted to fight initially anyways, and will remain between the ANV & Washington so the politicians won't have too much to panic about.

Even a victorious ANV is going to be short supplies after this battle, given the relative positions there is no way they can capture a significant portion of the Union supply train. Encircling the AoP or enfilading it with artillery is not possible, the terrain and road net won't allow it - only incredible incompetence by the AoP would prevent it from withdrawing in relatively good order before that would happen. If the ANV tries to go around the ends of the Union lines, time and terrain don't work. If they go "over" them due to Union withdrawal when the come down the reverse slops of the ridges they will be exposed to Union artillery without their own in support. By the time you get Confederate guns up to the top of the ridges the AoP will be long gone.

In my understanding Lee's plan was to inflict a crushing defeat on the AoP while living off the land in Pennsylvania, allowing Northern Virginia to recover and have a "free" summer to grow crops etc. It was, at least in part, a rumor of a large store of boots for the barefoot ANV that drew parts of the ANV to Gettysburg. Living off the land in Pennsylvania would keep the ANV fed, provide draft animals, maybe some clothes but would not provide ammunition etc in large amounts - so Lee had to beat the AoP in one big fight badly enough so he could stay north for a bit with no real opposition. Had he won as noted above, he would have had to retreat not much later than OTL because he simply could not fight another big fight without supplies of the sort he could not get by foraging, and would not get from the south.

 

[Shogun]

Meade would simply retreat to the Big Pipe Creek line in Maryland that he had decided on early in the campaign in OTL until the two armies accidentally collided with each other on July 1, thus forcing him to move to Gettysburg instead.

 

[Elfwine]

Had he won as noted above, he would have had to retreat not much later than OTL because he simply could not fight another big fight without supplies of the sort he could not get by foraging, and would not get from the south.

Lee wasn't out of ammunition or medical supplies OTL, why is a win going to be worse there?