PC: Allies take most or all of Italy in 1943.

In OTL, after Italy signed the Armistice of Cassible with the Allies, Germany immediately invaded, taking over about 3/4 of the Italian peninsula within two weeks. It took almost two years of hard fighting to drive the Germans out.

My understanding is that some of this was due to misunderstandings and diplomatic issues between Italy and the allies. Is it plausible to have an Italy that successfully resists the Germans long enough for US and UK troops to reach the north of the country, or else to have the Allies land in the north directly? If so, how does this affect the rest of the war. The Alps are pretty tough to cross, but could you have, e.g., the Allies forgoing Overlord and attacking France by land instead?
 
... Is it plausible to have an Italy that successfully resists the Germans long enough for US and UK troops to reach the north of the country, or else to have the Allies land in the north directly?

No, the Italian army was to weak from poor leadership & demoralization to effectively resist. Desertion was daily weakening the ranks and there were many Facist/Axis sympathizers among the officers.

However this result could be a German decision. Through August & early September there was a debate within the German leadership over the strategy in Italy. Most thought the peninsula was indefensible & should be imeadiatly abandoned. Hitler initially favored this school Rommel had been made commander of the northern region and charged with organizing a army group there. Kesselring was the dissident voice. He correctly guessed the Allies would not be as effective as feared & a extended delaying action fought in the south. Hitler changed his mind and gave Kesselring carte balance to execute his ideas, & Rommel was transferred to France. As flakey as hitler was this could have gone the other way & the Allies fetched up against a solid defense line on the northern Apennines mountains.


If so, how does this affect the rest of the war. The Alps are pretty tough to cross, but could you have, e.g., the Allies forgoing Overlord and attacking France by land instead?

There are multiple mountain ranges, each multilayered. The southern Apennines where Monte Cassino is, are a relatively minor mountain range, but it took six months to break that single defense line. It took another six months for the Allies to break the defense line on the northern Apennines. After after that there are the several branches of the Alps. Through all this are few paved roads and easily blocked railways. Even before you get to those Italys ports and railways are wholly inadequate to support more than one Army Group of a dozen divisions. In France the Allies fielded three AG of eight armies & 60+ divisions.

The fastest way to the industrial heart of Germany is via Northern France and Belgium. There you have many large ports, one of the densest transportation networks in the world, skilled and friendly motivated work force to liberate, no mountain ranges worthy of the name, and the British isles as a invasion base.
 
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