PC/AHC/WI: Maximilian I of Austria and Mexico?

1. Plausibility check:

If Franz Joseph were to die heirless in, say, 1864 or 1865 would (or can) the Austrian throne fall to Maximilian, newly crowned Emperor of Mexico?

2. AHC:

If no, the challenge part is to make it so as plausibly as possible - even if you have to stretch...

3. WI:

What are the effects on intervention in Mexico with the Austrian navy and army now under the control of Mexico's Emperor? What about the nigh inevitable Great War? Long term effects on Mexico, Austria, America, Europe, and history in general?

Edit: Obviously the part of the agreement involving Max losing his Austrian nobility rights need be erased, forgotten, or negotiated out of existence. Is this task Herculean?
 
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The US is definitely not going to be ecstatic about such a large part of the Americas coming under the effective rule of a reactionary European power. Aside from that, I doubt Maximilian's taking the throne would be accepted by the Mexican conservatives if he has made no effort to accept Mexico as his new homeland. Without this leg to stand on, the French efforts would likely go even worse than IOTL.
 
I'd imagine it would end up similar to what happened in the late 16th century with Henri III of France. He was elected King of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and later inherited France. When he fled back to France the polish nobles had him deposed and replaced. Mexico might keep him for a few months but he would either be deposed or have to send one of his brothers to take his place.
 
I would imagine that he would be forced to give up one or the other, because I don't imagine anyone would be looking forward to that monstrosity.
 
I would imagine that he would be forced to give up one or the other, because I don't imagine anyone would be looking forward to that monstrosity.

Who would force him? The French stay slightly longer and are augmented by Mexican and now large Austrian forces. Juarez possibly relents and accepts the offer of amnesty and prime ministry at bayonet point, quickly learning how hands off max will be from an administrative standpoint, while bringing in European investors strengthening the economy perhaps more quickly and effectively than under the Porfiriato. He also never starts killing prisoners. The United States is in no shape to stop him for a while, and with a happier France it's not out of the question for nappy 3 to lend manpower he no longer needs in Mexico to the austro-Prussian war potentially turning the tide of that conflict (assuming it still exists ittl, which I have no reason to doubt it would).

Max is really in a prime position to stay emperor of both for some time. I can see him going back and forth extremely regularly, as well, as Max was a notorious lover of Mexico, if a little naive in how he showed it.
 
Who would force him?

The Mexicans, the Hungarians, the US, the British...

The French stay slightly longer and are augmented by Mexican and now large Austrian forces.

because Austria is Absolutely fine with being used to further the French Agenda, while they get no benefits?

I would assume that the Austro-Prussian War continues as per OTL, sense the Austrians are sending more resources to Mexico, resulting in similar circumstances, causing the Hungarians to considered leaving the Empire, and eventually the Austro-Hungarian Compromise.

However he now has to juggle the situation in Mexico and Austria.

Sending Austrian troops, which would contain Hungarians and those associated with their parts of the empire, to fight in Mexico and die for the French, would certainly not help those matters.

Juarez possibly relents and accepts the offer of amnesty and prime ministry at bayonet point, quickly learning how hands off max will be from an administrative standpoint, while bringing in European investors strengthening the economy perhaps more quickly and effectively than under the Porfiriato. He also never starts killing prisoners.



The United States is in no shape to stop him for a while, and with a happier France it's not out of the question for nappy 3 to lend manpower he no longer needs in Mexico to the austro-Prussian war potentially turning the tide of that conflict (assuming it still exists ittl, which I have no reason to doubt it would).

Given that Juarez fled twice, Established a government-in-exile, He would probably have to die.

Max is really in a prime position to stay emperor of both for some time. I can see him going back and forth extremely regularly, as well, as Max was a notorious lover of Mexico, if a little naive in how he showed it.

He didn't accept the initial offer, and only accepted it because it gave him a chance to go on a botanical expedition of Brazil.

and the big Question is...why would they make the offer to a sitting monarch?
 
There is no way this is possible, sorry. FJ would never, ever ever, allow Maximilian to retain his status within Austria and become Emperor in Mexico. FJ considered the fact that Maximilian was taking a foreign crown under French auspices a personal affront and the court would not overturn his wishes even after his death. If he dies and Maximilian is Emperor of Mexico then Karl Ludwig assumes the throne. The Austrians would sooner enthrone one of members of the Tuscan line or a woman (one of FJ's daughters), in the event that all of Sophie and Franz Karl's children died except Max.
 
There is no way this is possible, sorry. FJ would never, ever ever, allow Maximilian to retain his status within Austria and become Emperor in Mexico. FJ considered the fact that Maximilian was taking a foreign crown under French auspices a personal affront and the court would not overturn his wishes even after his death. If he dies and Maximilian is Emperor of Mexico then Karl Ludwig assumes the throne. The Austrians would sooner enthrone one of members of the Tuscan line or a woman (one of FJ's daughters), in the event that all of Sophie and Franz Karl's children died except Max.

This makes me sad. Are you positive there is no way? Not even a long shot?
 
I suspect becoming emperor of austria would lead him to abandon claims in Mexico and allow the liberals to take power, Mexico would be an incredibly secondary elemant of the personal union and would likely be incredibly resistant to its new emperor now that they are effectively a colony of a foreign power again.
 
There is NO way that the USA would ever allow Max to be the ruler of Mexico. In 1865 the USA has the best army in the world. Why do you think the French backed down in the first place? Having help from a (lets get real) weak Austro-Hungrian empire does not help the situation. How long would it take the US with their industrial might to make their military an even more imposing force? France I understand has a decent Navy. The USA had a huge Navy then. Yes much of it is blockade duty ships. But again how long does it take for the USA to build an even bigger and better navy? An all out war would last no more than 2 to 3 years and would result in a complete American victory. Grant, Sheridan, Sherman and Thomas vs Bazaine and company is a huge mis-match.
 
There is NO way that the USA would ever allow Max to be the ruler of Mexico. In 1865 the USA has the best army in the world. Why do you think the French backed down in the first place? Having help from a (lets get real) weak Austro-Hungrian empire does not help the situation. How long would it take the US with their industrial might to make their military an even more imposing force? France I understand has a decent Navy. The USA had a huge Navy then. Yes much of it is blockade duty ships. But again how long does it take for the USA to build an even bigger and better navy? An all out war would last no more than 2 to 3 years and would result in a complete American victory. Grant, Sheridan, Sherman and Thomas vs Bazaine and company is a huge mis-match.

"Not worth it" and "not possible" are not the same thing.

The US's industrial capacity at this point is equivalent to France, and military quality . . . I'm not sure how impressive it really is.

It's potent, but I'm not sure it's "the best".

Plus, France is not exactly weak militarily - I'm not sure of its generals, but "a complete victory in two or three years" sounds highly optimistic.
 
Throwing Fenrir a bone...

If ( and as IV would tell you, that's a huge if ) Maximilian manages to take the throne of Mexico and Austria and secures both territories sufficiently by 1866 for Max to be viewed as a hegemonic risk by the U.S. and the U.K., is it possible for the Austria-Prussian War to develop into World War I?

U.S., U.K., Prussia, Italy, Mexican Republicans, and allies on one side

Vs.

France, Austria, German Confederation, Mexican Royalists, and allies on the other

It looks pretty stacked against Max, but could a short Great War be he result of his dual emperor-hood?
 
Throwing Fenrir a bone...

If ( and as IV would tell you, that's a huge if ) Maximilian manages to take the throne of Mexico and Austria and secures both territories sufficiently by 1866 for Max to be viewed as a hegemonic risk by the U.S. and the U.K., is it possible for the Austria-Prussian War to develop into World War I?

U.S., U.K., Prussia, Italy, Mexican Republicans, and allies on one side

Vs.

France, Austria, German Confederation, Mexican Royalists, and allies on the other

It looks pretty stacked against Max, but could a short Great War be he result of his dual emperor-hood?

Possibly?

such a war would probably come right on the heels of the US Civil war, so I Don't really see them getting too involved, probably shipping the republicans arms, but not actually declaring war.

The UK and Russia seem more like wildcards to me.
 
Really? The U.S. embarking on another war right off the ACW? Nope. By this point everybody over there just wanted to go home.

This doesn't look too promising anyway, and would doom the Mexican empire faster than OTL unless the Austrians start pumping in troops. This would also lead to a rather interesting Franco-Prussian war later on.

Or, the Austrians could use it as a dumping ground for dissenting minorities.
 
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