PC/AHC: Is this alternative Mexico plausible or does it become ASB?

After publishing this thread[1], related to a PA in Mexico. I consider it appropriate to challenge how to keep Mexico stable, republican, democratic in the plausible without falling too far into ASB.

For example, in OTL. Most Latin American countries have had turbulent times throughout their history, including Mexico. I would like to know if these ideas would be plausible with a POD between 1750 and 1830 but without changing much, the course of people, countries, etc..

*1) Historically, there would be no First or Second Mexican Empire, nor would there be any Porfiriato and Maximato. Even so, there could be some crises that will not destabilize the country. The closest thing would be the conflict against the United States between 1835 and 1850. There could be other conflicts but I don't have them planned yet.

*2) On the political-executive level, Mexico would be stable and democratic. There would be no revolutions, rebellions or coups d'état. Most leaders (national, state, and local) will end their terms of office except in the event of death, removal, or resignation. The governors would have a four-year term with the possibility of re-election for at least another term. There would be a vice presidency. There would be a clear line of succession and impeachment proceedings. Their elections and presidencies would be stable, but there could still be scandals but they would not destabilize the country.

*3) political-legislative, The Congress will be Bicameral, Senators and Deputies will have mandates of 4 years and may be reelected several times with a maximum of 24/32 years. Every two years, half of the Senate and Chamber of Deputies will be renewed just like in the USA. There would be extraordinary elections to elect a new legislator to succeed a deceased one.

*4) political-judicial, will have 11 judges and must be over 50 years old to be a judge.

*5) Political-state-executive/legislative, it will be almost the same as at the national level, at the municipal level there will be councils that would resemble legislatures.

*6) In military terms, the country is comparable to countries such as Finland, Spain and Australia, and since 1820 it has been growing and is considered a regional power.

*7) In religious matters, although Catholicism is popular, it has no influence as in OTL and the number of believers has been reduced over the years, it barely maintains between 50 and 70% of the faithful, and the Christian/Protestant religion has between 10 and 35% and has continued to grow at least since 1850/1900.

*8) Mexico has 31 states and the CDMX/DF. Between 1819 and 1851, Mexico lost a little more than half of its territory. Between 1820 and 1828, Central America separated from Mexico and formed a single country that would later dissolve into several countries just like OTL. While between 1835 and 1850, Mexico lost the territory of the current OTL states of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California and the northern-most portions. Mexico's defense was a little better than in OTL and resisted some battles but the US advanced to Mazatlan, Tampico and San Luis Potosi before Mexico surrendered and accepted to cede territory to the US, everything that was north of the Rio Grande and partially the line proposed by slidell between Chihuahua and Baja California, would later be bought a portion of territory (a small gadsen) leaving the country with almost the same current OTL territory. This would be the most significant conflict in the country since the War of Independence, there would be no French intervention, no Mexican Revolution. Mexico would send armed forces to other countries under the auspices of an international coalition to overthrow regimes or establish order.

Perhaps it would be necessary to create "smaller PODs" before the "main POD". For example:

*1) Getting some OTL people to have other careers and have a different "mindset". For example, to make Miguel Hidalgo not become a priest and look for another career as a military man or another. That José María Morelos be a merchant or a lawyer,

*2) Find a way to bring American influence to bear on the independence struggle and the drafting of the Constitution.

*3) Seek a way to keep independence as short as possible and keep Miguel Hidalgo, Allende, Morelos and some of them who become Presidents of Mexico alive.

Note: To clarify something, I'm not very good with maps. I prefer to keep the borderline as in OTL. But I would like to have different borders.

[1] Threads: How likely is it that the U.S. Constitution will influence the Mexican constitution?
 
Last edited:
One of the problems you run into is its hard to avoid the decentralization vs. centralization debate and have Mexico remain stable at the same time. Its in alot of ways a consquense of the cultural-poltical and economic system set up by the Spainish and has been ingrained in Mexico for centuries. However, if we assume the Independence struggle is more heavily American influenced and backed, I could certainly see this working by establishing a Federal model structured after the US... though such a measure would likely be only temporary, particularly as the Church would gain excessive influence in the more Conservative states and you'd have to give greater autonomy/rights to various native groups, reducing the speed of assimilation. Invariably, Mexico is going to have to have a Civil War over this increasing cultural divide, or the Federal government is going to have to concede that Mexico is more an economic rather than a cultural unit with the different states regions having their own strong "Flavor" and disparities in wealth.
 
I think you need to find a way to have the federalists win in the struggle with the centralists. The shorter the conflict the sooner stability of a sort could be established.
There are things that are very hard to butterfly away. The Comanche/Apache problems are going to be nearly impossible to fix, IMO before the latter part of the 19th century.
If your Mexico, as you envision it, doesn't outright bribe these tribes (like the Spanish), then you're stuck having a hard time populating the northern parts of the country.
Add to that, from about 1820-1840, if you don't fix the Indian problem in the north, you're going to have some kind of population invasion from the United States, whether it be legal or illegal.
Also, at some point, if you can't figure a way to increase the population of California by at least a factor of 10, you might still be looking at an invasion from the United States, of course that could hinge on the US getting a more or less favorable Oregon Treaty.

Others may disagree, but I think an early victory of the Federalists gives Mexico the best opportunity to stabilize their country.
 
Top