PC/AHC: Indonesian Civil War (plausibility and reprecussions)

Most likely cause of an Indonesian Civil War


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Just curious as I am not exactly the most well-versed when it comes to Indonesian politics or history.

So past the declaration of independence in 1945, was there any point in time when Indonesia could have exploded into civil war? If so...

1) Who would've been the belligrents? Communists? Islamists? Local seperatist? Possibly even rival generals (a la Warlord era China)?

2) Just what would the consquences of such a war be on the rest of South-East Asia? Just how badly would an Indonesian Civil War destabilize the region?

3) Due to her proximity to the Indonesians, what does Australia do in the event of a Civil War? Simply offer aid? Occupy East Papua/relevant island(s)? Full-blown intervention?

4) Expanding on the above, just how bad would a potential refugee crisis be? On a scale of Vietnam to Syria.

5) In the event of it occuring during the Cold War, what do the superpowers do? Just how deep would the Americans and Soviet interfere? Or dare I say, Maoist China?
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
This might not be the answer you are looking for but like all 'independence' wars (especially post-WWII) the period between 1945 and 1949 was a civil war already!
 
Any of these factors would do, Indonesia became a powder keg of Islamists, Communists, Nationalists and Separatist Movements during the 1960's. A coup against Soekarno without the people's support would quickly spiral into a civil war due to his careful balancing of the different ideologies excluding the separatists. As for an assassination, it's hard to say and it honestly depends on who succeeds him. However, a civil war during the Suharto era would be a much more difficult challenge as Suharto managed to quickly consolidate power thanks to economic growth and help from the CIA. A separatist movement under Suharto would be a likely factor to kick off a civil war thanks to the fact that they managed to gain lots of supporters with examples including the Free Aceh Movement and the Republic of South Maluku. Suharto dealt with things in a rather quick and brutal way which he showed during the 1965 purge of communists and the East Timor crisis that saw soldiers marching through the streets in broad daylight. If he managed to bungle one of his responses, then Indonesia could end up with constant riots, ethnic strife, and an even more repressive government . However, I don't see this ending up like the Congolese Civil War but it could resemble an even worse version of the Troubles in North Ireland.
 
1) Who would've been the belligrents? Communists? Islamists? Local seperatist? Possibly even rival generals (a la Warlord era China)?

Communists: 48 and 65(?), they have a strong force built up by 65
Islamists: done that in the 50s, minor grassroots support. The islamic block generally prefers a united indonesia
Local movements: several, PRRI in sumatra, some eastern provinces... local rulers and warlord have power pre 65, but suharto managed to centralize powers behind him. The closest Indonesia came to a rebelling military is probably in 98 post suharto when everyone is scrambling for power.

2) Just what would the consquences of such a war be on the rest of South-East Asia? Just how badly would an Indonesian Civil War destabilize the region?

If they close the malacca or sunda or karimata strait it would be major. But otherwise not very much?

3)
Due to her proximity to the Indonesians, what does Australia do in the event of a Civil War? Simply offer aid? Occupy East Papua/relevant island(s)? Full-blown intervention

Aid at most. Peacekeeping units on UN mandate for some eastern parts: timor, papua, maybe ambon. Doubt they have the manpower to do much though.

4) Expanding on the above, just how bad would a potential refugee crisis be? On a scale of Vietnam to Syria.
Depends on where the conflict is happening. If in java: potentially disastrous. If in the more sparsely populated islands of sumatra or kalimantan, maybe vietnam level?
Either way domestic refugees are more likely and would require heavy food and sanitation aid

5) In the event of it occuring during the Cold War, what do the superpowers do? Just how deep would the Americans and Soviet interfere? Or dare I say, Maoist China?
Very deep, dont want to lose out on the resources. the US is quite involved in the 65 purge, but dont know how much influence does USSR and PRC has during that period. Sukarno was quite tight with both though.
 
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