PC & AHC: ACW with no Mexican Cession

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
Is it possible for there to be an American Civil War without the US gaining the Mexican Cession? Texas okay, but not the Mexican Cession. How? As plausible as possible please.
 
Well, of course. There was always going to be a war.

The question is whether a greater concession or a lesser concession makes it happen sooner… or later.

Lesser means more free land, meaning they'd look elsewhere. The Caribbean would be very possible. Greater means more "slave" land, taken as free.

Which causes it faster? Which holds it off longer? Where else would we expand?

Interesting stuff.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
Well, of course. There was always going to be a war.

The question is whether a greater concession or a lesser concession makes it happen sooner… or later.

Lesser means more free land, meaning they'd look elsewhere. The Caribbean would be very possible. Greater means more "slave" land, taken as free.

Which causes it faster? Which holds it off longer? Where else would we expand?

Interesting stuff.

What are everyone's thoughts on what the breaking point would be? What would the compromises look like? Is there a compromise line and where would it be? Is there a popular sovereignty policy? Which state(s) would end up as the 'Bleeding Kansas' analogue?

How much of the Caribbean could be taken before compromise breaks down? Cuba could be admitted as one or two states, but apart from Hispaniola, what other parts of the Caribbean would justify states (and I'm assuming British possessions are kind of out of the question)?
 
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