PC/AH Challenge: Restoration of the Yuan Dynasty

With a POD no earlier than 1368, how likely is it that the Yuan Dynasty, or any Mongol Dynasty can again rule all, or most of China?

Before ruling it out offhand, note that there were far more organized Tumans (self contained armies of approximately 10,000 horsemen) in existence in 1368 than in 1200 when Genghis Khan began his conquest. And that the Manchus who overthrew the Ming Dynasty in 1644 were the direct descendants of the Jurchens who had ruled Northern China as the Jin Dynasty, so a "restoration" of a fallen dynasty does have some precedent.

Since I have not included a poll, please feel free to rate the plausibility by analogy, except using that mammal which shall not be named!:D

How plausible would you say is the establishment of another Mongol Dynasty Post-1368? And how might it occur?
 
Kinda hijacking, but make me wonder if, centuries later, there is descendants of the Mings left for a similar restauration, if the Qings fall...
 
Kinda hijacking, but make me wonder if, centuries later, there is descendants of the Mings left for a similar restauration, if the Qings fall...

Not really. The hardcore Ming loyalists fled to Fujian Province in the south before taking the boat ride over to Formosa when the mainland fell. Everyone else left behind ended up kowtowing to the Manchus after a couple of generations.
 
This did seem possible during the early Ming Dynasty, since raids on northern villages were not uncommon. In fact one Ming emperor was even kidnapped for ransom, which spurned the building of the wall.

If the descendants of Genghis somehow did manage to conquer China under the Ming, they won't call themselves Yuan and won't claim to be its successor. This is merely because they need to increase their legitimacy among their Chinese subjects.

In OTL the legacy of Genghis Khan was so powerful among the Mongol tribes that Altan Khan bestowed the title of Dalai ("Ocean" in Tibetan) to a Tibetan Lama, who proclaimed him the re-incarnation of Genghis ("Ocean" in Mongol). But such shenanigans won't fly among the Chinese Confucian bureaucracy.

Kinda hijacking, but make me wonder if, centuries later, there is descendants of the Mings left for a similar restauration, if the Qings fall...
There actually are descendants of the Ming. Ironically one of them, Zhu Rongji, served as Premier of China between 1998 and 2003. So maybe there *was* a restoration of the Ming after all.
 
This did seem possible during the early Ming Dynasty, since raids on northern villages were not uncommon. In fact one Ming emperor was even kidnapped for ransom, which spurned the building of the wall.

If the descendants of Genghis somehow did manage to conquer China under the Ming, they won't call themselves Yuan and won't claim to be its successor. This is merely because they need to increase their legitimacy among their Chinese subjects.

In OTL the legacy of Genghis Khan was so powerful among the Mongol tribes that Altan Khan bestowed the title of Dalai ("Ocean" in Tibetan) to a Tibetan Lama, who proclaimed him the re-incarnation of Genghis ("Ocean" in Mongol). But such shenanigans won't fly among the Chinese Confucian bureaucracy.


There actually are descendants of the Ming. Ironically one of them, Zhu Rongji, served as Premier of China between 1998 and 2003. So maybe there *was* a restoration of the Ming after all.

Wrong dynasty for the first part - that was the Song I think...

But interesting....
 
I think the most likely course for a Mongol re-conquest of China would be similar to how the Qing followed the Jin Dynasty, only in this case, after the fall of the Ming, the Mongols would invade and take over China. This could probably happen after a few centuries but the entire course of Ming history would have to go differently for the Mongols to be in a position to conquer all of China a second time.

I guess a scenario could be that a Timurid invasion of China weakens the Ming Dynasty, and in the aftermath the Mongols manage to become stronger to conquer China later. But I don't think the Northern Yuan was strong enough then to do this.

I guess you could have a situatation where the Hongwu Emperor dies in 1369, the nascent Ming get thrown into disarray, and a combination of Yuan loyalists (Basalawarmi et al.) and Mongol forces retake the country. This doesn't seem very likely. Only slightly more likely: one of Hongwu's generals gets paranoid regarding the purges, kills Hongwu, and tries to take the throne for himself, which then results in chaos. I don't think either of these are too likely because the Chinese would probably continue to resist the Mongols, who aren't really in a position to conquer China again so quickly after losing it.
 
This did seem possible during the early Ming Dynasty, since raids on northern villages were not uncommon. In fact one Ming emperor was even kidnapped for ransom, which spurned the building of the wall.

Wrong dynasty for the first part - that was the Song I think...

But interesting....

Ming Emperor Zhengtong was kidnapped by the Mongols while leading his troops into battle.

Mind you... Aren't the Mings the ones who fought off Yuans and brought back chineses control, and the Songs the ones the mongols ousted?

EternalCynic is right on this one. It was a Ming Emperor who was captured by the Mongols during a failed invasion, but I feel that this could be attributed less to Mongol strength and more to a combination of bad weather and absolutely terrible leadership. And luck, because the Emperor should have been killed in the same hail of arrows that killed literally all of his guards. The man who came up with the idea, Wang Zhen, definitely ranks among the worst eunuchs in Chinese history, given the fact that the Chinese army during this incident lost maybe a quarter-million men.
 
If the descendants of Genghis somehow did manage to conquer China under the Ming, they won't call themselves Yuan and won't claim to be its successor. This is merely because they need to increase their legitimacy among their Chinese subjects.

So it is unlikely that, if the Mongols did come back into power, they would declare the Ming Dynasty to have been illegitimate usurpers? So long as the descendants of Genghis Khan continue to be the titular leaders of the Mongols, wouldn't it make more sense to just claim that their deposed ancestors remained the legitimate Emperors of China, regardless of the interlopers who ruled in the interim, after the fashion of "Louis XVIII" of France, who took the regal title "The Eighteenth" even though his nephew and titular predecessor had not in fact reigned.

Or would telling the Chinese people that the Ming Emperors that they had venerated for several generations were in fact usurpers risk undermining the cult of the emperor?
 
So it is unlikely that, if the Mongols did come back into power, they would declare the Ming Dynasty to have been illegitimate usurpers? So long as the descendants of Genghis Khan continue to be the titular leaders of the Mongols, wouldn't it make more sense to just claim that their deposed ancestors remained the legitimate Emperors of China, regardless of the interlopers who ruled in the interim, after the fashion of "Louis XVIII" of France, who took the regal title "The Eighteenth" even though his nephew and titular predecessor had not in fact reigned.

Or would telling the Chinese people that the Ming Emperors that they had venerated for several generations were in fact usurpers risk undermining the cult of the emperor?
Initially, once the Mongols establish control over a portion of "China" and rule over the "civilized lands", they will proclaim themselves as the Latter Yuan for propaganda purposes. Eventually, they will capture an imperial city, which they will claim as the capital, after which they *must* proclaim a different dynasty. To proclaim themselves as the Yuan Dynasty after this point would be to deny the existence of the Ming, which is both factually and politically unwise.

Even today, a hundred years after the abolition of the monarchy, this is still true. The People's Republic was only proclaimed after Mao captured Beijing, and to this day the CPC propaganda refuses to recognize the continued existence of the Republic of China after that day.

It may have been possible for the Mongols to "restore" the Yuan after an interlude of, say, ten years. Much longer than that is not possible.
 
Well since the OP lists the Qing dynasty as a restoration of the Jin Dynasty this might be somewhat appropriate...

What about having the fall of the Ming Dynasty be much more gradual...Someone arises and manages to hold off the Qing creating a divided China. Fastforward a few decades and you have the Mongols organizing under Galdan Khan...In OTL the Kangxi Emperor avoided a conflict through marriage, but perhaps in TTL this doesn't happen and the Mongols attack in conjunction with the Ming. The Qing perform admirably and manage to inflict a horrendous blow on the Ming by killing their leader and causing a succession crisis. However they are left weak and unable to resist the oncoming Mongols under Galdan...

Now...how long Galdan's new dynasty lasts is anyone's guess but probably not that long...
 
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