PC: Abyssinian-German coordination in WWI

Plausibility check:

Abyssinia (Ethiopia) during WWI was completely surrounded by Allied territory (mostly British and Italian, but also French Somaliland). This places it in a strategically very difficult position. Nevertheless, would it have been possible for Abyssinia to declare war on the Allies with the expectation of help from/coordination with German forces in German East Africa? How many troops and resources did Germany have in GEA that could plausibly have been spared? Could they and the Abyssinians have jointly invaded and occupied Britain's East Africa Protectorate (Kenya) for any length of time? How would it have affected the East African theater of the war, as well as overall Allied planning and operations?
 
Not at the startof the war and not with otl course of the war. With a tl of greater German success and chance of winning and ability to more closely assist abyssinia then they might pile on in one of the later war years. I doubt they would help German east Africa, rather they would go for their own aims while the Germans were in the feild, perhaps try to get a port.
 
Not at the startof the war and not with otl course of the war. With a tl of greater German success and chance of winning and ability to more closely assist abyssinia then they might pile on in one of the later war years. I doubt they would help German east Africa, rather they would go for their own aims while the Germans were in the feild, perhaps try to get a port.

What if Abyssinia then only declared war on Italy, and massed its forces for an invasion of Italian Somaliland? Would they have a chance of capturing Mogadishu? Would they be able to hold the territory long enough for the Italy to cut its losses and leave? And would the British stay out, or intervene to help the Italians?
 
Plausibility check:

Abyssinia (Ethiopia) during WWI was completely surrounded by Allied territory (mostly British and Italian, but also French Somaliland). This places it in a strategically very difficult position. Nevertheless, would it have been possible for Abyssinia to declare war on the Allies with the expectation of help from/coordination with German forces in German East Africa?

Assuming Prince Iyasu stays in power unchallenged (not easy), theoretically yes, but there's no reasonable expectation about German Ostafrika.

How many troops and resources did Germany have in GEA that could plausibly have been spared?

Zero.

Could they and the Abyssinians have jointly invaded and occupied Britain's East Africa Protectorate (Kenya) for any length of time?

Almost certanly not.

How would it have affected the East African theater of the war, as well as overall Allied planning and operations?
Significantly. Ethiopia's armies were large, especially by the standards of African colonial warfare. Although they weaponry was somewhat dated and, more importantly, irreplaceable in the event of war with the Entente, numbers could conceivably make up for this, for a time. If Ethiopia fights defensively, they could eat a lot of scarce Entente resources/manpower, subtracting that to other theatres - most likely to the benefit of the Ottomans and von Lettow. Ostafrika came to engage about 100.000 Entente troops, though most of it was third-rate militia unlikely to see action elsewhere anyway. And von Lettow had what, less than a tenth of that? Ethiopia could probably field (but not supply indefinitely) about 200/250 thousand armed men, and has no shortage of competent military leaders (infighting and mistrust among them may be a major problem). IOTL in 1935 Italy took about a year, with a much larger technological edge, to subdue an Ethiopian force of similar dimension, deploying about twice as many troops (despite total air superiority, overwhelming advantage in artillery, and liberal use of gas). This may give a ballpark (somewhat optimistic for Ethiopians) of what level of commitment the Entente needs to put into defeating Ethiopia: it's the same order of magnitude of a major Western Front offensive in terms of manpower (far less demanding in terms of weapons and ammunitions though).
 
What if Abyssinia then only declared war on Italy,

Not going to happen. Britain and France would join instantly.

and massed its forces for an invasion of Italian Somaliland?
Massing forces in the Ogaden Desert is hardly advisable.


Would they have a chance of capturing Mogadishu?

Very small. And why bother anyway? Eritrea is closer, richer, probably less rebellious, and Ethiopia Irredenta.

Would they be able to hold the territory long enough for the Italy to cut its losses and leave?

Nope. The Prestige of the Master Race is at stake. Ethiopia Delenda Est. Italy may defer the matter but not just pack and leave.

And would the British stay out, or intervene to help the Italians?

They'd intervene for day one, which would make Ethiopian offensive action anywhere a difficult proposition. Britain's possessions surround poor Ethiopia. Of course, Britain expects her nice post-war cut of colonial real estate out of this, and will get it.
 

Deleted member 94680

Abyssinia (Ethiopia) during WWI was completely surrounded by Allied territory (mostly British and Italian, but also French Somaliland). This places it in a strategically very difficult position.

Simplifying things somewhat. Why would they even consider attacking the Allies in this situation?

Nevertheless, would it have been possible for Abyssinia to declare war on the Allies with the expectation of help from/coordination with German forces in German East Africa? How many troops and resources did Germany have in GEA that could plausibly have been spared? Could they and the Abyssinians have jointly invaded and occupied Britain's East Africa Protectorate (Kenya) for any length of time? How would it have affected the East African theater of the war, as well as overall Allied planning and operations?

Have you read up on Lettow-Vorbek and his campaign? They couldn't even keep the British out of German East Africa, let alone spare troops for agressive actions.


For this one to fly, a POD earlier than during WWI would be needed.
 
Ethiopia was in too much tumult and had no interest in fighting every single one of its neighbors, in a war it was certain to lose.
 

ben0628

Banned
Get Italy to join the Central Powers and I could maybe see it happening. I believe Ethiopia had friendly relations with Great Britain and Russia (who supplied them with weapons during its war with Italy) so going to war against the Entente would not happen.
 
Get Italy to join the Central Powers and I could maybe see it happening. I believe Ethiopia had friendly relations with Great Britain and Russia (who supplied them with weapons during its war with Italy) so going to war against the Entente would not happen.
Problem then is getting Ethiopia unified when it was so chaotic at the time and the Italians joining the CP of course
 
Get Italy to join the Central Powers and I could maybe see it happening. I believe Ethiopia had friendly relations with Great Britain and Russia (who supplied them with weapons during its war with Italy) so going to war against the Entente would not happen.

If this scenario had happened, would Ethiopia have a decent shot at defeating Italy, with British aid? And would the British have allowed Ethiopia to annex Eritrea and Italian Somaliland at the peace conference?
 

ben0628

Banned
If this scenario had happened, would Ethiopia have a decent shot at defeating Italy, with British aid? And would the British have allowed Ethiopia to annex Eritrea and Italian Somaliland at the peace conference?

A couple of things. Italy would most likely lose fairly quickly in Italian Somaliland and Eritrea if they joined (Unless Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck pulled something crazy out of his ass like he usually did in otl). The Italians would last longer in Libya, but would probably lose by the end of 1915.

As for Ethiopia. The problem that Ethiopia has is its internal problems. Solve these (at least temporarily), and they could defeat any Italian force with British aid, especially if Italy is busy in Europe.

Now, they would have to join in immediately after Italy joins the war if they want a shot at occupying Italian colonies post war. If they can do it before the British and French form an expeditionary force, I could see them retaining Eritrea post war, however Italian Somaliland would probably be combined with British Somaliland.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Iyasu V was at least accused of being pro- Central Powers, but that was by his political enemies that ended up overthrowing him. So there might be some grain of truth in it, but it could just be pissy Shewan nobles justifying their plots to get rid of an unpopular Emperor to the Entente nations.

There were also old treaties between UK, France and Italy to split Ethiopia between them in case the country collapsed. I guess joining the wrong side of a war would equal collapsing, so those treaties would probably come into effect.
 
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A couple of things. Italy would most likely lose fairly quickly in Italian Somaliland and Eritrea if they joined (Unless Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck pulled something crazy out of his ass like he usually did in otl). The Italians would last longer in Libya, but would probably lose by the end of 1915.

As for Ethiopia. The problem that Ethiopia has is its internal problems. Solve these (at least temporarily), and they could defeat any Italian force with British aid, especially if Italy is busy in Europe.

Now, they would have to join in immediately after Italy joins the war if they want a shot at occupying Italian colonies post war. If they can do it before the British and French form an expeditionary force, I could see them retaining Eritrea post war, however Italian Somaliland would probably be combined with British Somaliland.

Entente Ethiopia with CP Italy is quite a dire combination for Italy in the Horn. Note that chances of CP Italy only exist in Aug/Sept 1914, October at latest (assuming for instance a different outcome at Marne). Also note that Italy had been virtually ejected from Libya IOTL by April 1915 even before they were involved in WWI, exclusively by Libyan insurgents (marginally aided by the Ottomans). CP Italy's staying power in Libya is nil.
(Italy in the CP likely changes the dynamic of Ottoman entry in the war, and likely leads to no general Jihad call - this has effects on Ethiopian internal situation. The Libyan insurgency is now in the Entente camp by default - I don't know what other effect this may have on Darfur etc., but certainly changes are big).
Iyasu in this scenario is probably facing a much easier internal situation - the odds are locally too good for everyone NOT TO intervene against Italy, and there is no further clear religious divide angle at work (underlying tension in the ruling elite remains). However, this may be nullified by changes in Europe - CP Italy at an early stages greatly favors the Austro-Germans in the initial phase and puts France in a fairly uncomfortable situation.
 
Iyasu V was at least accused of being pro- Central Powers, but that was by his political enemies that ended up overthrowing him. So there might be some grain of truth in it, but it could just be pissy Shewan nobles justifying their plots to get rid of an unpopular Emperor to the Entente nations.

There were also old treaties between UK, France and Italy to split Ethiopia between them in case the country collapsed. I guess joining the wrong side of a war would equal collapsing, so those treaties would probably come into effect.

Sure. If Ethiopia is foolish enough to join, it likely ends on the losing side, and it certainly ceases to exist in the aftermath, getting partioned roughly along treaty lines (unless they are changed in some horsetrading). There is probably at least some truth in the claims of pro-CP alignment of Iyasu, and it seems fairly clear that the Entente supported Ras Tafari. However, Ethiopia only has a shot at entering the war in a decent strategical situation early in the war - better if it is before Italy, but I think that would be politically impossible (Ethiopia was friendly with Russia and France, had almost nil relations at all with either Austria or Germany, was never more than mildly unhappy with Britain... Iyasu was reportedly somewhat pro-Ottoman- but the rest of the elite emphatically was not. Relations with italy in this period were decent if not good - neither side thought of the other in terms of strategic enmity, though it was likely easy to whip it up if needed).
 
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