PC: A Polish-Russian Partition of Ukraine If/After Mitteleuropa Implodes?

CaliGuy

Banned
I'm curious about this--if Germany wins WWI, creates Mitteleuropa, and then loses control of Mitteleuropa (for instance, due to its financial costs or whatever) after, say, several decades, would it be plausible for Poland--newly freed from German domination--and Russia to partition Ukraine between the two of them?

Basically, the logic behind such a partition of Ukraine would be this--Russia might still consider Ukraine to be a part of its rightful territory while parts of western Ukraine would have significant Polish percentages:

http://web.archive.org/web/20170221190022/http://s30.postimg.org/7hhd52kwh/The_Poles_Map.png

The_Poles_Map.png


Thus, if it's both militarily and politically (in terms of avoiding large-scale international sanctions, et cetera) possible, why not have Poland annex western Ukraine (with its large number of ethnic Poles and Ukrainian nationalists) while having Russia annex the rest of Ukraine?

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
The German plan for Poland involved a considerable portion of the country directly annexed to Germany, with basically a strip from Warsaw to Bialystok and Lublin independent. Unless the implosion of Mitteleuropa involves Poland gaining control of the richer western parts of the country, it's in no position to partition anything.

Besides that, a Russia that considers Ukraine part of Russia even after several decades probably looks at Poland the same way--the Poles would be better served trying to prop Ukraine up as an independent buffer. Not that Poland's diplomats have always been rational...
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The German plan for Poland involved a considerable portion of the country directly annexed to Germany, with basically a strip from Warsaw to Bialystok and Lublin independent. Unless the implosion of Mitteleuropa involves Poland gaining control of the richer western parts of the country, it's in no position to partition anything.

Wasn't the Polish Border Strip mostly agricultural, though?

Besides that, a Russia that considers Ukraine part of Russia even after several decades probably looks at Poland the same way--the Poles would be better served trying to prop Ukraine up as an independent buffer. Not that Poland's diplomats have always been rational...

Polish nationalism has a more fierce history than Ukrainian nationalism, though; indeed, even a revanchist Russian leader might be able to figure this out (which in turn helps explain why Stalin didn't outright annex Poland in 1945 like Lenin did with Ukraine in 1919-1921).
 
Besides that, a Russia that considers Ukraine part of Russia even after several decades probably looks at Poland the same way

Not necessarily - Poland was different, because its independence had been recognized by the Russian Provisional Government, and it also didn't have such an important place in Russian nationalism. Thus the Whites did not consider Poland a part of Russia and recognized Polish independence - even those of them that disliked Poland or got into diplomatic squabbles with it.
While Ukraine did not have that legacy, and had a much more important role in Russian nationalist ideology, so pretty much no one in Russia recognized it as a valid state.

Depending on the international situation, allying with the Hetmanate could be useful for Poland - but it could also be totally useless. And the Hetmanate itself might not be willing to play, or have a completely different set of its own problems.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not necessarily - Poland was different, because its independence had been recognized by the Russian Provisional Government, and it also didn't have such an important place in Russian nationalism. Thus the Whites did not consider Poland a part of Russia and recognized Polish independence - even those of them that disliked Poland or got into diplomatic squabbles with it.
While Ukraine did not have that legacy, and had a much more important role in Russian nationalist ideology, so pretty much no one in Russia recognized it as a valid state.

Bingo! After all, Poland was linguistically more different from Russia than Ukrainian was and also was a part of Russia for just 120 years (as opposed to Ukraine's 270 years).

Depending on the international situation, allying with the Hetmanate could be useful for Poland - but it could also be totally useless. And the Hetmanate itself might not be willing to play, or have a completely different set of its own problems.

Agreed. However, given Poland's small territorial size, Poland might want to expand somewhere--and the two most plausible targets are western Ukraine and southern Lithuania.
 
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