PC: A plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine in exchange for a separate peace during WWI?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had Germany had enough sense to offer France a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine during World War I in exchange for a separate peace, would France have taken this opportunity?

For the record, I am asking about 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, early 1918, and late 1918 here. Also, by "separate peace," I mean that France would agree to give Germany a free hand in the East.
 
Never in a million, billion, trillion years. To France, the war was not about Alsace-Lorraine. It was about France being freed of the threat of the Germans taking Paris at any time The Prussian War had knocked the Fench off their pedestal and they were no longer the premier power that they had been. They now feared the Germans and this fear governed everything that they did

They wanted to be free of it and they would fight to the bitter end. This was their last chance and given the allies they had, it was a pretty good one

Even if the French really just wanted Alsace back, the Germans would always be able to renege on the deal if Russia was beaten
 
I wonder if war was averted whether Germany might agree to such a thing, or if it might have happened prior to war, but since those are precluded I imagine it might become a point during a negotiated peace either in 1916 when the war is obviously stalemated but Germany feels strong enough to be magnanimous, or in 1918 after the war is truly stalemated. Both scenarios may hinge on an altered war, say an east first strategy or more successful German opening early, or no American belligerence later, etc. I think German sentiment was one of frustration and ultimately contempt for the Alsatians who should have simply become better Germans. Lorraine was French enough to be impossible. Obviously the iron ore and strategic value of the Imperial territory undercut any desire to give up ground, especially if it is during war, but if the French focus the war on it and the countryside bears more scars like French hinterland then who knows. Oddly the people felt affinity to France until they were reunited and then had regrets, so a plebiscite might offer a weird result after the horrors of war, and what if the subject populace find it was a bad deal? I think the Danes that left never looked back but that was seemingly so much less complicated. I truly think Alsace-Lorraine is more nuanced in its loyalties, affiliations and sentiments than history perhaps prefers to record. But it is tantalizing to think it might have a better solution than "to the victor goes the spoils."
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Never in a million, billion, trillion years. To France, the war was not about Alsace-Lorraine. It was about France being freed of the threat of the Germans taking Paris at any time The Prussian War had knocked the Fench off their pedestal and they were no longer the premier power that they had been. They now feared the Germans and this fear governed everything that they did

They wanted to be free of it and they would fight to the bitter end. This was their last chance and given the allies they had, it was a pretty good one

Even if the French really just wanted Alsace back, the Germans would always be able to renege on the deal if Russia was beaten

Please keep in mind, though, that if Germany's leadership already makes a commitment to political liberalization during this time, it would be rather hard for Germany to attack France in the future.

I wonder if war was averted whether Germany might agree to such a thing, or if it might have happened prior to war, but since those are precluded I imagine it might become a point during a negotiated peace either in 1916 when the war is obviously stalemated but Germany feels strong enough to be magnanimous, or in 1918 after the war is truly stalemated. Both scenarios may hinge on an altered war, say an east first strategy or more successful German opening early, or no American belligerence later, etc. I think German sentiment was one of frustration and ultimately contempt for the Alsatians who should have simply become better Germans. Lorraine was French enough to be impossible. Obviously the iron ore and strategic value of the Imperial territory undercut any desire to give up ground, especially if it is during war, but if the French focus the war on it and the countryside bears more scars like French hinterland then who knows. Oddly the people felt affinity to France until they were reunited and then had regrets, so a plebiscite might offer a weird result after the horrors of war, and what if the subject populace find it was a bad deal? I think the Danes that left never looked back but that was seemingly so much less complicated. I truly think Alsace-Lorraine is more nuanced in its loyalties, affiliations and sentiments than history perhaps prefers to record. But it is tantalizing to think it might have a better solution than "to the victor goes the spoils."

Basically, I am thinking of this proposal being implemented in the event that the U.S. would have remained neutral in WWI (due to no resumption of USW). Also, Yes, Alsace-Lorraine had a lot of natural resources as well as strategic value; however, Germany would feel that it is a worthy sacrifice in this TL (if the plebiscite will turn out in favor of France) if it allows Germany to keep all of its gains in the East.
 
Please keep in mind, though, that if Germany's leadership already makes a commitment to political liberalization during this time, it would be rather hard for Germany to attack France in the future.



Basically, I am thinking of this proposal being implemented in the event that the U.S. would have remained neutral in WWI (due to no resumption of USW). Also, Yes, Alsace-Lorraine had a lot of natural resources as well as strategic value; however, Germany would feel that it is a worthy sacrifice in this TL (if the plebiscite will turn out in favor of France) if it allows Germany to keep all of its gains in the East.
It also might not turn out in favor of France, considering that like 70% of people there spoke a Low German dialect.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It also might not turn out in favor of France, considering that like 70% of people there spoke a Low German dialect.
True, but at least France would have a chance of winning this plebiscite--unlike the status quo, where A-L simply remains under German rule without any plebiscite.
 
True, but at least France would have a chance of winning this plebiscite--unlike the status quo, where A-L simply remains under German rule without any plebiscite.
France will take it on the battlefield. Rhe war is not about Alsace-Lorraine its about domination. The Germans dominate France and France doesn't like it Liberalization doesn't end wars- the US had no problem attacking Spain, France had no problem attacking Vietnam or Madagascar
 
Basically, I am thinking of this proposal being implemented in the event that the U.S. would have remained neutral in WWI (due to no resumption of USW). Also, Yes, Alsace-Lorraine had a lot of natural resources as well as strategic value; however, Germany would feel that it is a worthy sacrifice in this TL (if the plebiscite will turn out in favor of France) if it allows Germany to keep all of its gains in the East.

I am not convinced that gains in the east offset the value of A-L or that the German leadership are inclined to let A-L go, in fact I suspect the Generals certainly saw value in a westward push of the border to improve any defensive line, to further weaken France and together with the industrialists certainly prized the resources gained for Germany and denied France. That said, A-L may be a very devastated piece of ground after two or more years of war waged upon it since I think it may see more direct French offensives in a scenario setting up a "victorious" Germany. Any war between Germany and France will involve A-L as the spoils unless it is a draw and perhaps both armies have occupied it in part.

But it is still plausible that to secure peace A-L may be the only bargaining chip (assuming we see no Schlieffen plan and Germany has no other significant French territory to return). Germany may be confident that the German speakers will "certainly" vote for the Reich and the French speakers are an insignificant enough portion to concede, thus a two-part plebiscite like that with the Danes in Schleswig, one covering Alsace and the other Lorraine. That might very well partition A-L, the expected outcome, and I think that is the most one sees after a number of butterflies get us to it. Purely logical is the whole thing should be made autonomous and become a neutral buffer both separating and linking the French and Germans but I will allow that to be quashed as ASB since we might not want yet another Belgium!
 

Archibald

Banned
No.way.in.hell. From 1870 onwards generations after generations of young french men were taught from the craddle about the humiliation of 1870 (particularly the siege of Paris and the humiliating armistice that followed). La ligne bleue des Vosges, revanchisme, le boche, attaque à outrance.

Maybe - maybe - if you threw Willhem II under a bus (or a horse cart) before he became Kaiser.
 
No.way.in.hell. From 1870 onwards generations after generations of young french men were taught from the craddle about the humiliation of 1870 (particularly the siege of Paris and the humiliating armistice that followed). La ligne bleue des Vosges, revanchisme, le boche, attaque à outrance.

Maybe - maybe - if you threw Willhem II under a bus (or a horse cart) before he became Kaiser.
There was economic and trade conditions from the 1970 war still in place in 1914.
Maybe Germany could have bought peace by offering a referendum and an end to the trade conditions still in place prior to war breaking out.

France however knew they needed an ally to deal with Germany and would not throw Russia under a bus because they knew they would be subject to German domination.

We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.
 

Perkeo

Banned
Never in a million, billion, trillion years. To France, the war was not about Alsace-Lorraine. It was about France being freed of the threat of the Germans taking Paris at any time The Prussian War had knocked the Fench off their pedestal and they were no longer the premier power that they had been. They now feared the Germans and this fear governed everything that they did

They wanted to be free of it and they would fight to the bitter end. This was their last chance and given the allies they had, it was a pretty good one

Did pre WWI Germany ever show an interest in conquering any further French territory? Even the infamous Septemberprogramm (which was written after the war began) was moderate on that issue.
 
Did pre WWI Germany ever show an interest in conquering any further French territory? Even the infamous Septemberprogramm (which was written after the war began) was moderate on that issue.
No but they would have been quite happy to tell France what to do and how to do it and that's exactly how the relationship would have played out, in the event of German victory or even a white peace.
 
How are you going to deal with the thousands of refugees who left Alsace after the 1870 war to avoid becoming German? They and their descendants will have to be included in the plebiscite and there will be the issue of descendants who died in WW1.
 
Please keep in mind, though, that if Germany's leadership already makes a commitment to political liberalization during this time, it would be rather hard for Germany to attack France in the future.
Well you left out German liberalisation in your first post, and I have to wonder if anything like that would occur in this scenario. Even if German plans in the West have gone awry and Alsace-Lorraine returned, their now likely being able to crush Russia, effectively seize the Baltic states and Poland as puppets, Austria-Hungary surviving, and their turning Ukraine into a satellite state would be more than enough to compensate and boost the Kaiser's prestige and see him resist any moves towards lessening his powers I would have thought.

Also, why would France agree to this? Once Russia has been beaten, looted, forced to cede large amounts of territory, and generally denuded as a threat both economically and militarily what's to stop the Germans from coming back for round two a few years down the line? At which point France is in an even worse position.
 
Did pre WWI Germany ever show an interest in conquering any further French territory? Even the infamous Septemberprogramm (which was written after the war began) was moderate on that issue.

The French aren't afraid that the Germans will take more territory, they're afraid of the Germans reducing France to the status of Belgium. At all times after the Franco-Prussian war, the French knew in any dispute the Germans would win. Things like Morocco are what concern them. Every time their was a Franco-Italian dispute, the French knew the Italians had the Germans behind them. If war came, Germany could plunder France at will

After nearly fifty years, Alsace and Lorraine were distant memories but the humiliation of living in a second tier nation was a daily affair
 
All depend of period but i know that in 1918, alsatian population was pro-french, Philippe Husser a progerman say that just before Germany signing the peace most Alsatian hoped to be anenxed by France. many author wrote that Prussian millitarist and German really maltreated alsatian during war and it was treated as ennemies province and Zavern affair stay in memories after in begining of war i don't know.
 
Germany would not dream of offering such a peace unless her situation were truly desperate--in which case of course the French would not dream of accepting.

Interestingly, there did at one point appear to be the chance of reconciliation between Alsace-Lorraine's inhabitants and the German government. The increasing anticlericalism of the French government after the Dreyfus affair alienated many Alsace-Lorrainers. This made post-Kulturkampf German policy toward the church look more attractive (indeed, even during the days of the Kulturkampf the 1801 concordat had not been disturbed in A-L). After 1900, therefore, the clerical party in A-L looked forward to an autonomous A-L within the German empire. The ituation of the pro-French "irreconcilables" seemed desperate. "By 1911 a new constitution was granted which opened the way for the Reichsland, as it was called, to become an equal among the members of the empire. Provision was made for a bicameral Landtag and a vote in the imperial federal council. There was still plenty of dissatisfaction but the first election seemed to indicate that the government party had the majority." (1957 Encyclopedia Britannica article "Alsace-Lorraine")

This opportunity for reconciliation, however, did not last long; as an exposed part of the Empire, A-L was heavily garrisoned, clashes between civilians and the military authorities were inevitable, and the most notorious, the Saverne incident of 1913, did much to destroy any good will toward the German regime. So offering a genuinely fair plebiscite after 1914 would be the same thing as giving A-L to France--while the French would be very suspicious that the Germans would rig the plebiscite, and in any event would fear that a German state that had crushed Russia and made itself master of all Europe east of the Rhine could always take back A-L anyway.
 

Perkeo

Banned
The French aren't afraid that the Germans will take more territory, they're afraid of the Germans reducing France to the status of Belgium. At all times after the Franco-Prussian war, the French knew in any dispute the Germans would win. Things like Morocco are what concern them. Every time their was a Franco-Italian dispute, the French knew the Italians had the Germans behind them. If war came, Germany could plunder France at will

After nearly fifty years, Alsace and Lorraine were distant memories but the humiliation of living in a second tier nation was a daily affair

Well, claiming the right not to be a victim is one thing, claiming the right to be the bully another. There's no law, neither legal nor moral, against Prussia/Gemany outperforming its rival.

Still, I'd have loved to see the result of such a referendum. What a pity we'll never know. My guess is that it would have been as complex as the whole issue is.
 

Perkeo

Banned
How are you going to deal with the thousands of refugees who left Alsace after the 1870 war to avoid becoming German? They and their descendants will have to be included in the plebiscite and there will be the issue of descendants who died in WW1.
France will insist that those people shall be included, Germany that they shall not, and I could argue for both sides If I had to.

That is why I don't think we can settle the dispute with a referendum. The problem wasn't that the rulers didn't know what a honorable peace should look like, the problem was that the general concept of honorable peace went down the drain for some reason.
 
Had Germany had enough sense to offer France a plebiscite in Alsace-Lorraine during World War I in exchange for a separate peace, would France have taken this opportunity?

For the record, I am asking about 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, early 1918, and late 1918 here. Also, by "separate peace," I mean that France would agree to give Germany a free hand in the East.

I simply don't understand why people keep insisting that Germany offering a plebiscite on its own territory would have been in any way sensible. This would have been the ultimate sign of weakness to the French!
 
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