PC: A Muslim-majority Russia due to massive Russian expansion in the 20th century?

How exactly do you define "game-changing" here? Indeed, there are some natural resources in these areas--though I am unsure if this was known about back in the 1930s and 1940s:

As in: a resource which is extremely valuable and/or sorely lacking in Russia itself; something that could significantly affect its global status; something that's worth inventing an ideological justification from scratch and risking such a massive conflict.
Also, for what it's worth, it appears that Bukhara controlled the Uzbek-majority parts of Afghanistan up to the 19th century:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_Turkestan

"At the beginning of the 19th century they belonged to Bukhara; but under the emir Dost Mahommed the Afghans recovered Balkh and Tashkurgan in 1850, Akcha and the four western khanates in 1855, and Kunduz in 1859. The sovereignty over Andkhui, Shibarghan, Saripul, and Maimana was in dispute between Bukhara and Kabul until settled by the Anglo-Russian agreement of 1873 in favour of the Afghan claim."

In turn, this could form the basis for a Russian claim to these areas.

However, as I have previously said, Russia might want Afghanistan as an ally in a future war against the British and thus might not aggressively pursue these territorial claims.


OK. Also, though, what about going for all of Iran for the natural resources (oil, et cetera) and living space there?:

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_industry_mining78.jpg
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_industry_mining78.jpg

Well, I suppose Kornilov's origin suggests he could develop some kind of pan-Asian tendencies. So there's one way he'd fit into the scenario, though there's still not much to suggest he'd be a radically expansionist dictator - or even any kind of dictator, necessarily.

Living space? Eh, I still think there's plenty in Siberia and the Far East, or in Central Asia for that matter...and much of Iran is a desert, isn't it?
After all, if Hitler managed to sell a war for Lebensraum to the German people in our TL, why can't a non-Bolshevik Russian leader do the same in this TL? Indeed, I can imagine a narrative of how it is Russia's destiny to expand not only to the Pacific Ocean and into Central Asia, but also to the Indian Ocean!

Not sure to what extent Hitler was really selling a "war for Lebensraum". Lebensraum was certainly no secret, but I imagine the public view - and Nazi propaganda towards the general public - was more keen to emphasize WW2 as the "war to overturn Versailles", "war against the Communist menace", and so on.

Also, @Halagaz, what do you think that Russia's chances would be in a 1940s war with the British Empire over Iran in this TL?

I think Russia would make considerable gains in Iran (and maybe elsewhere); and then, eventually, get overextended, bogged down, and start losing. The final settlement might not necessarily be devastating for Russia - indeed, it could even get a slight increase in territory or influence - but it would ultimately be far less than they originally wanted. Basically, I imagine the war would be something between a draw and a British/coalition victory.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
As in: a resource which is extremely valuable and/or sorely lacking in Russia itself; something that could significantly affect its global status; something that's worth inventing an ideological justification from scratch and risking such a massive conflict.
OK. Anyway, if so, the response to your question would be No.

Well, I suppose Kornilov's origin suggests he could develop some kind of pan-Asian tendencies. So there's one way he'd fit into the scenario, though there's still not much to suggest he'd be a radically expansionist dictator - or even any kind of dictator, necessarily.

OK.

Living space? Eh, I still think there's plenty in Siberia and the Far East, or in Central Asia for that matter

It never hurts to have more living space if one's population is rapidly growing, no?

...and much of Iran is a desert, isn't it?

This topographic map of Iran suggests that it's more mountains than desert:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Iran_Topography.png

Iran_Topography.png


Not sure to what extent Hitler was really selling a "war for Lebensraum". Lebensraum was certainly no secret, but I imagine the public view - and Nazi propaganda towards the general public - was more keen to emphasize WW2 as the "war to overturn Versailles", "war against the Communist menace", and so on.

Fair enough, I suppose.

I think Russia would make considerable gains in Iran (and maybe elsewhere); and then, eventually, get overextended, bogged down, and start losing. The final settlement might not necessarily be devastating for Russia - indeed, it could even get a slight increase in territory or influence - but it would ultimately be far less than they originally wanted. Basically, I imagine the war would be something between a draw and a British/coalition victory.

OK; understood.

Anyway, though, let's think of an alternate scenario for this, shall we: Germany avoids resuming USW and thus causes the U.S. to remain neutral in WWI. Eventually, WWI ends with a status quo ante bellum in the West and with Brest-Litovsk-style German territorial gains in the East. Afterwards, Germany sends some troops to Russia to help the Whites overthrow the Bolsheviks.

A couple of decades later, Russia annexes Xinjiang and perhaps parts of Afghanistan and/or Iran (if it can get away with it without a new war). Later on, Russia starts a new war with Germany in an attempt to recapture Ukraine (and Belarus, if Germany takes Belarus as well in 1918). After some initial Russian victories, Germany defeats Russia in this war (largely thanks to the large manpower reserves of Mitteleuropa).

Thus, what Russia is ultimately stuck with are the Great Russian-majority territories (albeit with a larger population due to no Russian Civil War, no forced collectivization and purges, and a less deadly WWII), perhaps Georgia and Armenia, and a whole bunch of Muslim-majority territories which have rapidly growing populations. True, this wouldn't be enough to make Russia Muslim-majority, but it would nevertheless eventually (due to higher Muslim birth rates) result in a very large Muslim minority in Russia. Indeed, maybe out of a total population of 350 million, you have something like 215 million ethnic Russians, 10 million ethnic Georgians, Armenians, et cetera, and 125 million Muslims. 125 million out of 350 million is 36%.

Thus, how exactly is having such a large Muslim minority going to affect Russia in this TL?
 
Interesting, didn't know that.

OTOH, the scenario you proposed avoids the Russian Civil War and communist dictatorship, which means that there will be many more ethnic Russians running around. In addition to that, the Russian birthrate may stay higher and fall much slower without an aggressively secularizing regime..

Not necessarliy. The Soviet government was pro-natalist, especially for ethnic Russians. A non-Soviet Russia should be more prosperous (because free markets work better, even partially free markets, and because no WW II). Thus it should follow the demographic path associated with prosperity, education, greater personal autonomy, i.e. plunging birth rates, as shown all around the world for many generations.

This could more than offset the absence of losses due to Communism and war.

Looking at present-day numbers: suppose Great Russia conquers the Middle East, and expands in Asia, but loses the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine.

Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, and Mongolia (non-Moslem components) have 161M.

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, West Bank, Yemen, and Xinjiang (Moslem components) have over 400M.

Yes, many of these countries have minorities of the other religion, but as a first cut, this shows a strong possibility of Moslem-majority "Russia".
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not necessarliy. The Soviet government was pro-natalist, especially for ethnic Russians. A non-Soviet Russia should be more prosperous (because free markets work better, even partially free markets, and because no WW II). Thus it should follow the demographic path associated with prosperity, education, greater personal autonomy, i.e. plunging birth rates, as shown all around the world for many generations.

This could more than offset the absence of losses due to Communism and war.

Looking at present-day numbers: suppose Great Russia conquers the Middle East, and expands in Asia, but loses the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine.

Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, and Mongolia (non-Moslem components) have 161M.

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, West Bank, Yemen, and Xinjiang (Moslem components) have over 400M.

Yes, many of these countries have minorities of the other religion, but as a first cut, this shows a strong possibility of Moslem-majority "Russia".
There's absolutely no way in Hell that Russia would expand anywhere near that much, though!
 
Not necessarliy. The Soviet government was pro-natalist, especially for ethnic Russians. A non-Soviet Russia should be more prosperous (because free markets work better, even partially free markets, and because no WW II). Thus it should follow the demographic path associated with prosperity, education, greater personal autonomy, i.e. plunging birth rates, as shown all around the world for many generations.

This could more than offset the absence of losses due to Communism and war.

Looking at present-day numbers: suppose Great Russia conquers the Middle East, and expands in Asia, but loses the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine.

Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, and Mongolia (non-Moslem components) have 161M.

Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, West Bank, Yemen, and Xinjiang (Moslem components) have over 400M.

Yes, many of these countries have minorities of the other religion, but as a first cut, this shows a strong possibility of Moslem-majority "Russia".

Fair point wrt the Soviet government's occassional pro-natalism. But many of their measures and aspects were quite harmful from a natalist perspective. In any case, I do not think this could come close to offsetting OTL's losses.

A non-Soviet Russia is still not Western Europe. (And didn't even western European birth-rates take until the 60s before they started to plummet below replacement levels?) It would still have a very long journey ahead as a developing society, before it becomes a truly "developed" society with the expected plunging birth rates.
 
It never hurts to have more living space if one's population is rapidly growing, no?

This topographic map of Iran suggests that it's more mountains than desert:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Iran_Topography.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Iran_Topography.png

Maps such as this one suggest that a large chunk of Iran is not considered appropriate living space by the Iranians themselves. Though the northern parts are okay, I suppose.

652px-iran_ethnic_groups_map.png
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Maps such as this one suggest that a large chunk of Iran is not considered appropriate living space by the Iranians themselves. Though the northern parts are okay, I suppose.

652px-iran_ethnic_groups_map.png
Yeah, the central parts of Iran don't appear to be suited for large-scale human habitation.

Also, what do you think about this part of what I wrote, Halagaz?:

Anyway, though, let's think of an alternate scenario for this, shall we: Germany avoids resuming USW and thus causes the U.S. to remain neutral in WWI. Eventually, WWI ends with a status quo ante bellum in the West and with Brest-Litovsk-style German territorial gains in the East. Afterwards, Germany sends some troops to Russia to help the Whites overthrow the Bolsheviks.

A couple of decades later, Russia annexes Xinjiang and perhaps parts of Afghanistan and/or Iran (if it can get away with it without a new war). Later on, Russia starts a new war with Germany in an attempt to recapture Ukraine (and Belarus, if Germany takes Belarus as well in 1918). After some initial Russian victories, Germany defeats Russia in this war (largely thanks to the large manpower reserves of Mitteleuropa).

Thus, what Russia is ultimately stuck with are the Great Russian-majority territories (albeit with a larger population due to no Russian Civil War, no forced collectivization and purges, and a less deadly WWII), perhaps Georgia and Armenia, and a whole bunch of Muslim-majority territories which have rapidly growing populations. True, this wouldn't be enough to make Russia Muslim-majority, but it would nevertheless eventually (due to higher Muslim birth rates) result in a very large Muslim minority in Russia. Indeed, maybe out of a total population of 350 million, you have something like 215 million ethnic Russians, 10 million ethnic Georgians, Armenians, et cetera, and 125 million Muslims. 125 million out of 350 million is 36%.

Thus, how exactly is having such a large Muslim minority going to affect Russia in this TL?
 
Also, what do you think about this part of what I wrote, Halagaz?:

I think your first outline might work better for this sort of thing, actually.

A CP victory scenario denies Russia several Muslim-inhabited lands such as the Caucasus or eastern Anatolia, and makes expansion into Iran even more difficult.
Also, Germany and the Whites are not very compatible IMO, and the German intervention into the Russian civil war might just prolong it further and fail to create a stable, unified regime any time soon. In any case, it makes Russia significantly weaker than in your first scenario and places a huge question mark over even the easiest expansions.
And the WW2 analogue risks having Central Asia and other such territories also separated from Russia under Berlin's oversight.
 
I could a Muslim plurality Russia developing, but a Russia that goes on a massive conquest binge is going to need all of its core territory intact in Eastern Europe to do so. Manchuria, Inner and Outer Mongolia, Xinjiang, Afghanistan, portions of Persia, maybe Thrace.

There comes a point where Russia becomes so vast that Britain, Germany and Japan will do everything in their power to keep it down.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I could a Muslim plurality Russia developing, but a Russia that goes on a massive conquest binge is going to need all of its core territory intact in Eastern Europe to do so. Manchuria, Inner and Outer Mongolia, Xinjiang, Afghanistan, portions of Persia, maybe Thrace.

There comes a point where Russia becomes so vast that Britain, Germany and Japan will do everything in their power to keep it down.
Germany will be too mauled by its WWI defeat to do anything about Russia, though.

I think your first outline might work better for this sort of thing, actually.

A CP victory scenario denies Russia several Muslim-inhabited lands such as the Caucasus or eastern Anatolia, and makes expansion into Iran even more difficult.

Would the Turks actually be able to prevent the Russians from reconquering the Caucasus in the 1920s, though? After all, the Turks failed to decisively defeat the Armenians in 1918!

Also, Germany and the Whites are not very compatible IMO, and the German intervention into the Russian civil war might just prolong it further and fail to create a stable, unified regime any time soon. In any case, it makes Russia significantly weaker than in your first scenario and places a huge question mark over even the easiest expansions.

Why exactly do you say that Germany and the Whites weren't very compatible? I mean, sure, the Whites won't recognize the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk; however, Germany doesn't really need them to recognize this treaty. After all, as long as Russia remains weak, it can't pose a threat to either Germany or the status quo in Eastern Europe.

And the WW2 analogue risks having Central Asia and other such territories also separated from Russia under Berlin's oversight.

Sure--if Russia is stupid enough to continue the war after its troops are kicked out of Ukraine (and possibly out of Belarus as well, if Germany takes it in 1918) and thus German troops end up capturing Moscow. However, I am unsure that Russia's leadership in this TL would actually be that stupid.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I just can't envision a Russia able or willing to make such massive conquests in a world where the Great War happens. I think it takes a pre 1914 POD.
The Great War is necessary to destroy Germany's military power, though. Indeed, unless Germany allies with Russia (which probably requires a PoD of 1890 at the latest), Germany isn't going to allow Russia to expand like crazy.
 
The Great War is necessary to destroy Germany's military power, though. Indeed, unless Germany allies with Russia (which probably requires a PoD of 1890 at the latest), Germany isn't going to allow Russia to expand like crazy.

Most of the expansion would take place at the expense of China or other areas where German influence is minimal , likely between 1900-1914 and doesn't really concern Germany. Britain is the one who would flip out at the Russian expansion. Does Germany have an opinion on Russian adventures in Afghanistan or Dzungaria? Doubtful.
 
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