PC: A joint German-Soviet invasion of Poland, but without Nazism

CaliGuy

Banned
Would it have been plausible for a non-Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union to eventually invade Poland together? Basically, the logic of such an invasion would be to capture the Polish Corridor (for Germany) and to expand to the Curzon Line (for the Soviet Union).

Also, such an invasion could occur while France and/or Britain are busy elsewhere--whether in India, Vietnam, Algeria, and/or somewhere else. That way, France and Britain would be unwilling to militarily intervene during this invasion.

Anyway, would such an invasion be plausible?
 
I summarized Henry Ashby Turner's analysis of a conservative-authoritarian (but non-Nazi) Germany in the 1930's as follows: "With respect to Poland, things were different. The generals, like most other Germans, did want the Corridor back, and the Poles were unlikely to yield on this. So a German-Polish war was likely. But it is doubtful that this would have been a *world* war. A great deal of prior provocation on Hitler's part was necessary to have Britain and France issue guarantees to Poland. By holding on to limited demands (which it could justify on grounds of self-determination, especially for Danzig and much of the Corridor), Germany could probably avoid British or French intervention. Soviet intervention would be avoided, as in OTL, by giving the USSR eastern Poland (or if you prefer, western Ukraine and western Belorussia). But in order to avoid western intervention, the Germans would allow a Polish state to remain (shorn of some territories, such as the Corridor). Essentially, everyone would be satisfied with the results except the Poles--and even they of course would fare much better than in OTL." https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...s-over-in-193ps-germany.413448/#post-14516643
 
Probably needs someone like Schleicher in charge or that coup Blomberg threatened if Rohm didn't go (can't imagine Bruning or anyone else in Centre would go to war against Poland), but yes, it's very likely. The Poles hated Schleicher who was working with the Soviets. Hitler actually calmed the Poles down hence why they signed a treaty together while breaking with the Soviets. Hitler of course later changed his mind.
 
I summarized Henry Ashby Turner's analysis of a conservative-authoritarian (but non-Nazi) Germany in the 1930's as follows: "With respect to Poland, things were different. The generals, like most other Germans, did want the Corridor back, and the Poles were unlikely to yield on this. So a German-Polish war was likely. But it is doubtful that this would have been a *world* war. A great deal of prior provocation on Hitler's part was necessary to have Britain and France issue guarantees to Poland. By holding on to limited demands (which it could justify on grounds of self-determination, especially for Danzig and much of the Corridor), Germany could probably avoid British or French intervention. Soviet intervention would be avoided, as in OTL, by giving the USSR eastern Poland (or if you prefer, western Ukraine and western Belorussia). But in order to avoid western intervention, the Germans would allow a Polish state to remain (shorn of some territories, such as the Corridor). Essentially, everyone would be satisfied with the results except the Poles--and even they of course would fare much better than in OTL." https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...s-over-in-193ps-germany.413448/#post-14516643
In case of this hypothetical war, would the Soviets get involved, especially if Germany was led by Schleicher? I know Stalin was very cautious, but he had claims on Polish land and if Germany is going to war with Poland, it seems like a good time for him to do so as well.
 
I started a thread on how far a surviving Weimar Republic would go to reshape the international order. Regaining land lost to Poland was a major foreign policy priority. It was also on good terms with the USSR, unlike the Nazis.

It wouldn't have exercised the same incompetent and deceitful diplomacy that the Nazis did, so not to back the UK and France into a corner to declare war on Germany over Poland (who the UK had little real interest in).

As long as the Weimar Republic could secure the Rhineland and its border with France, and keep Czechoslovakia on side, a joint invasion of Poland with the USSR would have been very plausible, and probably more successful than the Nazis (as in not triggering another World War, and Germany would keep its gains in Poland).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I summarized Henry Ashby Turner's analysis of a conservative-authoritarian (but non-Nazi) Germany in the 1930's as follows: "With respect to Poland, things were different. The generals, like most other Germans, did want the Corridor back, and the Poles were unlikely to yield on this. So a German-Polish war was likely. But it is doubtful that this would have been a *world* war. A great deal of prior provocation on Hitler's part was necessary to have Britain and France issue guarantees to Poland. By holding on to limited demands (which it could justify on grounds of self-determination, especially for Danzig and much of the Corridor), Germany could probably avoid British or French intervention. Soviet intervention would be avoided, as in OTL, by giving the USSR eastern Poland (or if you prefer, western Ukraine and western Belorussia). But in order to avoid western intervention, the Germans would allow a Polish state to remain (shorn of some territories, such as the Corridor). Essentially, everyone would be satisfied with the results except the Poles--and even they of course would fare much better than in OTL." https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...s-over-in-193ps-germany.413448/#post-14516643
Thanks for this information and link, David! :) Indeed, I think that virtually all of the analysis in this link that you shared is spot-on! Frankly, the one thing that I disagree with is about the Anschluss--basically, I think that even a non-Nazi military German government might eventually try to have an Anschluss occur, but through negotiation with Britain and France rather than through military force.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In case of this hypothetical war, would the Soviets get involved, especially if Germany was led by Schleicher? I know Stalin was very cautious, but he had claims on Polish land and if Germany is going to war with Poland, it seems like a good time for him to do so as well.
Yes, the Soviets would get involved in this war. After all, Stalin took advantage of a good opportunity when he saw one.

I started a thread on how far a surviving Weimar Republic would go to reshape the international order. Regaining land lost to Poland was a major foreign policy priority. It was also on good terms with the USSR, unlike the Nazis.

It wouldn't have exercised the same incompetent and deceitful diplomacy that the Nazis did, so not to back the UK and France into a corner to declare war on Germany over Poland (who the UK had little real interest in).

As long as the Weimar Republic could secure the Rhineland and its border with France, and keep Czechoslovakia on side, a joint invasion of Poland with the USSR would have been very plausible, and probably more successful than the Nazis (as in not triggering another World War, and Germany would keep its gains in Poland).
Agreed with all of this. Indeed, the crucial question is this--how far into Poland does Germany expand? For instance, does it try grabbing Posen Province--let alone areas such as Lodz--in addition to grabbing Danzig and the Polish Corridor?
 
Yes, the Soviets would get involved in this war. After all, Stalin took advantage of a good opportunity when he saw one.


Agreed with all of this. Indeed, the crucial question is this--how far into Poland does Germany expand? For instance, does it try grabbing Posen Province--let alone areas such as Lodz--in addition to grabbing Danzig and the Polish Corridor?
1914 borders would likely be their maximum
 
Agreed with all of this. Indeed, the crucial question is this--how far into Poland does Germany expand? For instance, does it try grabbing Posen Province--let alone areas such as Lodz--in addition to grabbing Danzig and the Polish Corridor?

It probably depends on how France reacts. Sure, France and UK didn't want war, but if they made any threatening moves if Germany moves for Posen, then likely the Germans would stand down on that part.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Probably needs someone like Schleicher in charge or that coup Blomberg threatened if Rohm didn't go (can't imagine Bruning or anyone else in Centre would go to war against Poland), but yes, it's very likely. The Poles hated Schleicher who was working with the Soviets. Hitler actually calmed the Poles down hence why they signed a treaty together while breaking with the Soviets. Hitler of course later changed his mind.
Wasn't Hitler's pro-Polish foreign policy a deviation from the anti-Polish policy of various Weimar German governments?

1914 borders would likely be their maximum
OK. However, would the Germans actually go for the maximum? After all, going for Posen Province would add a lot of troublesome Poles to Germany.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It probably depends on how France reacts. Sure, France and UK didn't want war, but if they made any threatening moves if Germany moves for Posen, then likely the Germans would stand down on that part.
So, the most likely option for the Germans is to go for Danzig and the Polish Corridor but not for anything else, correct?
 
So, the most likely option for the Germans is to go for Danzig and the Polish Corridor but not for anything else, correct?
Closer to "We'll see how France reacts first. We also want Alsace-Lorraine, but we sure aren't going to risk war over it."

And when you think about it, if Adolf hadn't squandered all the goodwill from pity for Germany, France might even have turned a blind eye to a partition of Poland if they can be ensured of their own borders.
 
Wasn't Hitler's pro-Polish foreign policy a deviation from the anti-Polish policy of various Weimar German governments?


OK. However, would the Germans actually go for the maximum? After all, going for Posen Province would add a lot of troublesome Poles to Germany.
If they can get it without too much trouble they will.
Personally I think the smartest option would be to leave it alone, the poles would be alot more open to later reproachment if they dont take it. They will likely take back the parts of Silesia they lost as well.
 
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If they can get it without too much trouble they will.
Personally I think the smartest option would be to leave it alone, the poles would be alot more open to later reproachment if they dont take it. They will likely take back the parts of Silesia they lost as well.
I men, Poland was run by a nationalist military dictatorship in this period, no? Probably not a group that is very promising for future reproachment.
 

Loghain

Banned
What about Czechslovakia ? the most i can see No nazi goverment doing is very strongly lean on czechoslovakia to give German minority better treatment.
 
I men, Poland was run by a nationalist military dictatorship in this period, no? Probably not a group that is very promising for future reproachment.
Yes but after a crushing defeat they will be discredited and will likely be replaced I presume by someone who realizes that Poland can't marches it's neighbours to the east or west and is going to have to play second fiddle to Germany or Russia, which one will depend on who they ally
 
Yes but after a crushing defeat they will be discredited and will likely be replaced I presume by someone who realizes that Poland can't marches it's neighbours to the east or west and is going to have to play second fiddle to Germany or Russia, which one will depend on who they ally
Do you think Pilsudski would get thrown out? I mean, people loved that guy.
 
Do you think Pilsudski would get thrown out? I mean, people loved that guy.
The poles might not be the ones that throw him out but even if he isn't, he has no option but to roll over for the Germans because the Soviets would replace him with someone who was a more favourable shade of red and besides I like to think he wasn't stupid, I would be surprised if he didn't realize he has to work with (under) either the Germans or the Russians after they roll over Poland and the West doesn't lift a finger to help.
 
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