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To seriously evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the two sides we need to look at the avability of critical resources to each side.

A really big and obvious problem is oil:

In this period the US is the world's number one oil producer, and it's not competitive - at all.

Germany and Italy are primarily dependant on Rumanian oil (and synthetics) plus what they can get from Russia (while the non-aggression pact lasts).

The Soviets have significant oil resources for their own use, but a very limited infrastructure for delivery - getting useful amounts to Murmansk, Persia etc will take time.

Japan has nothing of significance and will be watching the Dutch East Indies with gready eyes, enough so that it may determine alliances.

UK (and France) depend almost entirely on the upper Persian Gulf, thus the route around the Cape will become the lifeline of the Allies (there are other sources in the Caribbean or Asia, but they are either small, highly vulnerable or share the same around the Cape lifeline).
Oh, you can probably get small amounts through the Med if the MN can reliably contain the RM (possible), but tankers are far too big, slow and vulnerable to run through the middle of the Med when the Regia Aeronautica, small craft and submarines can operate from both sides of the straits.

Forget most modern oil sources (North Sea, Saudi Arabia, Libya etc), the one source that is untapped and available with ca 1940 tech is on the Dutch-German border, deliberately hidden by the dutch. No reason they shouldn't keep it hidden like OTL, unless the Allies does something really stupid like (publicly) handing the Dutch East Indies over to the japanese...

If the RN loses control of the Cape route it's more or less game over, unless they manage to convert the RN to coal in time :)

The US was OTL operating subs over very long distances in the Pacific, any reason they couldn't cover West Africa to Bay of Biscay fairly quickly after the war starts ?
Likely they would want bases on the brazilian coast to cover further south.
 
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