Pathogen impact on slave trade to “new world”

This site has had several interesting discussions regarding the impact of European diseases on native new world populations. I’ve always been intrigued by how events would play out if the reverse would have occurred. So in that vein, here is a what-if.

What if an African originated pathogen breaks out in the slave populations being transported to the new world? It seems to me that the deplorable conditions on slave ships could have been perfect incubators for a disease(s) to strengthen and mutate. Let’s break it out into three different possible scenarios:

Scenario 1 - During the early late 17th or early 18th century an outbreak occurs throughout most of the Caribbean plantations. The slave populations are decimated, and the European populations suffer badly as well. The disease effects are so terrible that the mainland colonies ban importation of slaves.

Scenario 2 - During the mid 18th century (prior to American revolution), an outbreak occurs in the southern colonies, that spreads north. Slave populations are decimated. Due to widespread domestic slaves, white populations suffer badly, especially children. The colonies ban further importation, as religious/abolitionist groups declare wrath of god punishment for slavery. Slaves (or any person of color) are rounded up and put in Frontier camps, though many are killed outright.

Scenario 3 - During the mid 19th century (prior to the Civil War), an outbreak occurs in the southern states. The federal government attempts to quarantine the south, while border states/territories quickly declare their allegiance to the federal government. Southern and northern states round up any persons of color, and are placed in Frontier camps, though in the south states many are killed outright.

What are your opinions of these scenarios? Would any or all of them result in the abandonment of slave labor in the new world? How would these events effect the American revolution. Would the Civil War still occur?

Ric350
 
The conditions on slave ships aren't really conducive to generating the type of decimating plague you're thinking of. Super-deadly pathogens like that tend to be those that jump species, especially avian or swine viruses. Given that my understanding is that the slaves were not typically transported with livestock, the conditions for a species-jumping pathogen aren't there on the slave ships. And while disease would have been rife on the slave ships, the sorts of diseases that thrived there would have been those that target immunocompromised individuals, as being chained to the bottom of a boat with minimal sunlight, clean water, and nutrition is very immunocompromising. Such diseases would not be very effective at all against populations with stronger immune systems, such as free whites or slaves after disembarkment.

Also due to the time it takes for slaves to be transported to the new world from West Africa, it's difficult to come up with a pathogen that is so virulent that it can cause a major outbreak yet not also virulent enough that it simply kills everyone on board before they even make it to North America. You're probably better off trying to import viral vectors, as OTL malaria and yellow fever were carried to the New World from West Africa via mosquito vectors.
 
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