Passkey Down: President Ford is Dead

Book I, Chapter I

Vidal

Donor
Book I - America in Waiting: The Remainder of Nixon's Term

Chapter I

In the Wake of Fromme's Bullet

Lynette Fromme, better known as “Squeaky,” was ready to go down in history as the first woman to assassinate a president. Fromme was concerned about environmental issues and believed that the clearest way to send a signal about the need for clean air and clean water was to assassinate Gerald Ford, the 38th president. At Sacramento’s Capitol Park, Fromme got a clear shot of the president who was walking with his entourage to the California State Capitol to see Governor Jerry Brown. When she was close enough to the president, Fromme raised her handgun and fired two quick shots. Both bullets pierced Ford’s chest and he dropped instantly. The Secret Service sprung into action. Agent Larry Buendorf immediately moved to restrain Fromme. In their flailing, Fromme fired a third bullet, instantly killing Buendorf. She began to sprint, but others in the crowd tackled her to the ground until Secret Service agents moved in to confiscate Fromme’s weapon and place her under arrest.

Gerald Ford was in the back of an ambulance racing toward Mercy General Hospital in Sacramento. He was barely responding to agents as they attempted to talk to him. In Washington, First Lady Betty Ford was immediately notified that her husband was shot and Vice President Nelson Rockefeller was moved to a secure location in the White House. When the ambulance arrived at the hospital, nurses moved in to save Ford’s life, immediately wheeling him in for surgery. The president was alive, though barely breathing. Doctors had not yet begun the operation when Ford flatlined. He had lost a significant amount of blood and one bullet was stuck in the president’s lung. He died before doctors could attempt to save his life.

When Betty Ford heard the news she collapsed onto a couch in the White House Residence, where she began weeping. Downstairs, Nelson Rockefeller received the news from Deputy White House Chief of Staff Dick Cheney who was not in California for the trip. Rockefeller said his priority was to speak to the First Lady, which he did. He traveled to the Residence where he sat on the sofa next to the First Lady and wrapped her in an embrace. Ford cried on the new president’s shoulder for several minutes before she pulled away, “We need to swear you in now,” she said, a grave look on her face. Rockefeller nodded in his head and the two walked to the Blue Room of the White House where Nelson Rockefeller took the Oath of Office and became the 39th President of the United States. Rockefeller made no public remarks at the time of his swearing-in. He would address the nation from the Oval Office that evening.

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The assassin, Squaky Fromme, was quickly loaded into a police vehicle after her arrest.

The president’s body was flown back to Washington on Air Force One. Betty Ford and her children joined President Rockefeller and the new First Lady, Happy, on the tarmac of Andrews Air Force Base. The sun was setting as members of the military carried the flag-draped coffin off of the plane. The ceremony was covered live on all of the networks. Just shy of 13 months in office, Ford would not go down as one of the longest-serving presidents in history, but his decision to pardon Richard Nixon proved to be one of the most respected decisions a president ever made. In the wake of his death, the American public gained an appreciation for the affable Jerry Ford.

Rockefeller’s address to the nation that Friday night was brief, but the new president hoped to quell the distress among the American people. “My fellow Americans: I feel a great sense of remorse tonight. The assassination of President Gerald R. Ford is a great shock and a great blow to our nation. Gerald Ford was a man of integrity, sincerity, openness, and dedication. For nearly 13 months, he served our nation with humility and brought us out of one of our darkest moments,” Rockefeller began. He continued: “I know not why the almighty Father summoned Gerald Ford home today, but I know our nation was fortunate to have him as long as we did. My admiration of President Ford’s selfless service to this country cannot be understated.”

Taking a deep breath, the new president transitioned to remarks about his own presidency and the perilous time for the country: “Once again our nation finds itself in a presidential transition. It is my intention to provide stability to this office in order to steady the ship of state. Our challenges tonight are unprecedented but they are not insurmountable. It is in the fiber of every American to rise up and overcome these problems. We will do just that. As I said when I became the Vice President of this land, ‘There is nothing wrong with America that Americans cannot right.’ I hold that to be true today, even in one of our darkest days.” The president moved to finish his brief remarks.

“In closing,” Rockefeller said, “the thoughts and prayers of my family and our nation are with Betty Ford tonight – a First Lady who served our country with warmth and courage. We extend them further to President Ford’s children and their families as well. It is the responsibility of all Americans to ensure Gerald Ford did not die in vain.” The lights went out. The cameras were off. Nelson Rockefeller turned to Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, “I’m going to bed. Tomorrow, we’re getting into this.”

The next morning Betty Ford woke to plan the national funeral of her husband. It was the second time in 12 years that the nation would come together for a state funeral for a slain president. Ford wanted a respectable affair for her husband, but she was not interested in the elaborate display that was afforded to John F. Kennedy per the wishes of his wife, Jacqueline. The funeral was scheduled for Monday, September 8th, 1975, three days after the assassination of President Ford. On Sunday the 7th, Ford’s body was to lie in state at the U.S. Capitol building. Unlike Kennedy’s body, the casket was transported in a hearse as part of a larger motorcade. There was no horse-drawn caisson. Ford’s casket lied in repose outside the House Chamber, the first time in history. It was a nod to Ford’s long service in the House of Representatives. [1] After a period of repose, his body was carried to the Capitol Rotunda, like Lincoln’s and Kennedy’s before him.

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President Ford's casket laid in repose in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol Building the Sunday before his state funeral.

Monday morning, the funeral motorcade made its way from the Capitol Building to the Washington National Cathedral. Unlike Kennedy’s funeral, there was no marching in the streets, though onlookers lined the route to say goodbye to the president. When the pallbearers moved to take the body out of the hearse, the U.S. Coast Guard Band played “Hail to the Chief” and “Nearer, My God, to Thee.” [2] White House Chief of Staff Donald Rumsfeld, former President Richard Nixon, and President Nelson Rockefeller then eulogized the 38th president. At the conclusion of the service, Ford’s body was loaded onto Air Force One and brought to Grand Rapids, Michigan, where his body was buried in a private service with Ford’s closest friends and family. When the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library and Museum was dedicated in 1978, the president’s body was relocated to his final resting place on the grounds.

The responsibilities of planning the funeral fell to Mrs. Ford. As she crafted the affair, President Rockefeller met on Saturday morning with Rumsfeld and Cheney to determine how best to move forward. George Hinman, a longtime aide to the vice president, was also in the meeting. There was a great deal of animosity between Rumsfeld and Rockefeller, however. Rockefeller’s belief in an autonomous vice president drew the ire of Rumsfeld and others in the White House. [3] In the meeting, Rumsfeld announced his intention to step down from his job as White House Chief of Staff once President Rockefeller had a chance to settle into the position as president. Rockefeller thanked Rumsfeld for his candor and decision. [4]

Rockefeller began the conversation by wanting everyone’s thoughts on the vice presidency. Rumsfeld had himself suggested Rockefeller for the position when Ford was tasked with finding a new vice president. Now, he was again running through a list of who's who in Washington. Cheney was the first to address the elephant in the room: Ronald Reagan. The former California governor was preparing a bid for the White House that would attract the support of the New Right. Cheney believed that if Rockefeller had any presidential ambitions of his own, he should reach out to Reagan and offer him the vice presidency. Rockefeller was not prepared to make such a concession. Not only because he did not want to give in to Reagan’s primary threat, but he also did not believe that Reagan would make a good president in the event something were to happen to him. Hinman mentioned George H.W. Bush, the U.S. Ambassador to China. Bush came from a well-respected northeast political family. In other words, he was too similar to Rockefeller. Instead, the president wanted a qualified candidate who could pose regional and ideological balance to his Administration.

When Cheney and Rumsfeld left the meeting, Rockefeller and Hinman debated several names, including Rumsfeld himself. Rockefeller narrowed it down to two potential candidates: Senators Howard Baker and Bob Dole. He would meet with both of them after Ford’s funeral. Rockefeller’s consideration of ideological and geographical balance was the first indication that the new president was intent on mounting a bid for the White House in 1976. Sixteen years after his first attempt, Rockefeller was now significantly to the left of much of the Republican Party. In order to win the nomination and win reelection to the White House, he would need to not only beat Ronald Reagan but also unify the Republican Party ahead of the November general election. Though Nixon had done it, there was a serious question over whether or not Rockefeller could also succeed.

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Once President, Nelson Rockefeller moved quickly to consolidate power by replacing Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State.

Rockefeller also believed that if he were to win the White House, he would need to completely distance himself from the presidency of Nixon while wrapping himself in the memory of the slain Ford, whom he intended to paint as a martyr for civility in politics. As vice president, Rockefeller had grown increasingly agitated with Secretary of Defense Jim Schlesinger, who had also come to annoy Rumsfeld and Ford. At the same time, Rockefeller was not about to allow Henry Kissinger the kind of unlimited influence over foreign policy that he experienced under Presidents Nixon and Ford. Not long after Ford’s body was buried in Michigan, his successor asked for the resignations of the entire cabinet. He did not intend to accept all of them, but he did decide to replace Kissinger and Schlesinger. Kissinger also lost his role as national security adviser.

At a ceremony in the White House Rose Garden, Rockefeller made three high-profile nominations. First, he announced his decision to name Robert Dole as the next Vice President of the United States. Dole went on to an easy confirmation vote from the members of the House and his colleagues in the United States Senate. He did not receive a single vote against him. Next, Rockefeller announced that Bush was to replace Henry Kissinger at the Department of State. Senate Democrats were weary of Bush’s rising political fortunes, but he was ultimately confirmed with little opposition. To replace Schlesinger at the Department of Defense, President Rockefeller appointed the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Bill Clements, whom Schlesinger had entrusted with much of the job’s bureaucratic demands.

Rockefeller’s move symbolized a clear transition to a stronger presidency. The removal of Kissinger from the height of influence to no office whatsoever marked an enormous shift in the distribution of power in Washington. Bush’s appointment as Secretary of State was another nod to the establishment Republican wing while Dole’s nomination to the vice presidency was an attempt by Rockefeller to reach out to conservative Republicans. Dole, though not a member of the New Right, was seen as to the right of Rockefeller (though that was admittedly not difficult).

In California, Ronald Reagan watched with growing concern about how he would mount a presidential bid against Rockefeller. He had intended to launch his campaign in November, but was concerned that such an announcement would appear insensitive – that he wasn’t giving Rockefeller the time he needed to heal the country. Any later, however, and Reagan began to run into the primary season. He would continue his unofficial campaign for the presidency while his advisers planned how best to proceed given the changing situation in the United States. It did not help that Rockefeller’s approval ratings after his first month on the job hovered near 80%. The new president had taken office decisively and moved to put America on surer footing. He was wasting no time and he was commanding the respect his office entitled him. It remained to be seen how, if at all, Reagan could adapt his strategy to accommodate for Rockefeller.

[1] Ford’s casket did lie in repose outside the House Chamber during his 2006 state funeral.

[2] The detail of the Coast Guard Band is in line with Ford’s 2006 state funeral.

[3] This according to Donald Rumsfeld’s Known and Unknown, 185.

[4] Rumsfeld was already planning to leave the Administration in September 1975. The assassination of Ford and ascension of Rockefeller, whom Rumsfeld did not get along with, seems a natural time for Rumsfeld to leave Washington. (Rumsfeld, Donald. Known and Unknown, 193)
 
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I don't see Rumsfeld suggesting Bush, the two hated each other. Anyway, this looks like a great timeline. I can't wait until the next update.
 
Any less than zero chance Manson had of getting out just got closed off here; one of his disciples shot the president, so Manson will die in prison (just like OTL).

This is how I imagine his parole hearings go (both in OTL and TTL):
Parole Board head: Next up...OK, Mr. Manson. Denied. We're just holding this hearing for appearance purposes so, guard, just take him back to his cell...

On another note, this is the fourth major assassination of a U.S. prominent figure or president since 1963 (and the second assassination of a U.S. president); the national psyche must be affected to some degree...
 
Book I, Chapter II

Vidal

Donor
Book I - America in Waiting: The Remainder of Nixon's Term

Chapter II

The Candidate from Sacramento


Ronald Reagan was convinced he would be the next president, but he wasn’t sure whether now was his time. The time was certainly ripe for the rise of the New Right within the Republican Party. The pursuit of the Panama Canal Treaty was a unifying moment for conservatives as they rallied to oppose the efforts of the Ford Administration to hand over control of the Canal to Panama. Rockefeller was sure to continue this policy. Senator Jesse Helms watched Rockefeller’s ascension to the presidency with disdain, convinced that the party needed a challenge from the right more than ever before. Reagan was his guy. The ex-governor, however, wasn’t as convinced that he could make a play for the Republican nomination in the wake of a national tragedy.

For his part, Nelson Rockefeller believed that Ronald Reagan was a thorn in his side. He did not believe that Reagan had much of a claim to the Republican nomination, but after pursuing the White House for more than a decade, Rockefeller was not prepared to risk his hold on power. Rockefeller invited Reagan to the White House twice after Ford’s death. Once after Ford’s funeral and another time two weeks later for a discussion on policy. Together, Rockefeller and Reagan held a press conference where Reagan was forced to heap praise on Rockefeller for “bringing the country together.” Rockefeller thanked Reagan for the praise and the meeting and promised to heed some of his advice on policy matters.

In fact, Rockefeller moved quickly to cut off the Reagan primary campaign before it sprung to life. He met with Jack Kemp, the leading proponent of Reagan’s economic philosophy in the House, and together they announced a plan to reform the tax code in the United States. Rockefeller announced a reduction in the corporate tax to be included in the president’s first budget proposal. While Rockefeller did not fool anyone into believing he was now a conservative, he was working hard to appease conservative Republicans on the Hill and around the country.

Senator Jesse Helms was not moved. Convinced that Rockefeller would ignore the demands of the conservatives once reelected, Helms called Reagan and urged him to announce his challenge for the nomination. Reagan remained concerned about the appearance of seeking the Republican nomination just two months after Gerald Ford was assassinated. Helms told Reagan that if Rockefeller were the Republican nominee, he would start a third party and find another candidate, perhaps James Buckley from New York, to carry the banner across the finish line. Reagan believed such an effort was a waste of time. No one was going to beat Rockefeller if he made it to the general election, nor would a far-right candidate pose much of a threat to the president.

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Governor Ronald Reagan was planning on challenging President Ford for the nomination when Ford was assassinated.

Ronald Reagan decided he was not going to challenge Nelson Rockefeller just two weeks into November 1975, but he decided to keep his decision a secret between he and his wife for as long as he could so as to keep a high national profile. While he attended events in New Hampshire and other important primary states, the Rockefeller White House grew increasingly worried that Reagan was about to jump into the race. They made a decision that ultimately backfired. They went on the offensive. In an interview with the Washington Post, one Rockefeller campaign aide was asked his thoughts on the upcoming challenge of Ronald Reagan from the right. The interviewer described Reagan as an “exceptionally conservative voice.” The aide responded that Governor Reagan’s record in California was “barely half as conservative” as folklore had it. He specifically invoked Reagan’s decision to sign the nation’s most liberal abortion law in 1967. Reagan was outraged at the comment and decided he was going to challenge Rockefeller to “shut the bastard up.”

The president was equally furious. He fired the aide from the campaign and phoned Reagan directly to apologize. Rockefeller was the last person to want a debate about abortion brought into the Republican primary. In the second week of December, Ronald Reagan traveled to New Hampshire once more where he declared his intention to seek the Republican nomination at Saint Anselm College. Though Reagan had built a large campaign apparatus, his late entry hurt his candidacy. His announcement barely predated the busy Christmas and New Year season. Reagan did not return to the campaign trail until the second week of January – a month after he began his campaign.

President Rockefeller moved quickly to discredit Reagan’s campaign as opportunistic. Republican lawmakers gave interviews with print and television to decry Reagan’s decision. Though Senators Helms and Strom Thurmond came to Reagan’s defense, many others said Reagan should have put his personal ambition aside for the good of the party and the nation. “We don’t need another bitter campaign,” Howard Baker, the top Republican in the Senate, remarked. Ronald Reagan was largely on his own in his quest to defeat the sitting president, but he was not going to go down without a fight.

Reagan hit Rockefeller on the Rockefeller Commission, an investigation into the practices of the FBI and the CIA. “I have to ask, don’t you think there’s a bigger threat posed by the people the FBI and the CIA are looking into than by the FBI and the CIA?” [1] His campaign was painting Rockefeller as unpatriotic. The Rockefeller campaign responded by attacking Reagan’s tacit support for cover-ups. “I did hear that,” the president said in response to a question about Reagan’s attack on the Rockefeller Commission. “I think what you see here is someone who doesn’t recognize the grave risk Watergate opposed to this great American democracy. The American people have to know where their president is on issues like these, and I am always going to be on the side of transparency in government.” Reagan’s base still supported his position, but Rockefeller had won over many Republicans (and independents) with his response.

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The campaign for the Republican nomination, between President Rockfeller and Governor Reagan, turned extremely negative.

“And who knows? If we can get Washington out of the classroom, maybe we can get God back in.” [2] The audience went wild with applause. Ronald Reagan was running an unabashedly conservative campaign. In the South, he talked about morality. Up north, he hit Rockefeller on American values – the Rockefeller Commission, the Panama Canal, and other matters where Reagan said the president was “leaving us out to dry.” Reagan also took issue with Secretary of State George Bush who had been meeting with Soviet leaders in an effort to resolve the Cold War. “We have to start playing tough with these people or they’re gonna walk all over us,” he told one audience in New Hampshire.

Rockefeller hit Reagan equally hard and campaigned aggressively in New Hampshire, determined to win the first-in-the-nation primary. He traveled to a breakfast event in Concord where he slammed Reagan’s “temperament” and suggested that the best thing for the nation was stability at the top. “We’ve gone through a lot in the last four years. I’m the third president in as many years. Public confidence has been understandably shaken. We need to remind the American people that the Republican Party, like no other party, is capable of leading America in this dark national time. I am the candidate to do that,” he said. Rockefeller’s message was a success with establishment types and party leaders. Bob Dole, the new vice president, campaigned equally hard for Rockefeller on a similar message. It was unclear whether or not the message would resonate with voters. Polling of the New Hampshire primary showed a close match between the president and Reagan. It was going to come down to the wire. [3]

Reagan was running on a small government message and began hitting Rockefeller on wasteful spending. He repeatedly referenced Linda Taylor, who Reagan claimed had “80 names, 30 addresses, 12 Social Security cards, and is collecting veteran’s benefits on four non-existing deceased husbands.” [4] The president chose not to engage directly with Regan on the topic of welfare fraud. Instead, he included a pitch in his stump speech about wasteful government spending. “Ronald Reagan,” he told crowds, “believes in no government. That’s a fine opinion. I believe in a government that serves the people, and that includes a government that doesn’t waste the tax dollars of our hard-working people!” While another Rockefeller may have engaged directly with Reagan on the merits of welfare legislation, the president was restrained, hoping that he could do what he had to do and say what needed to be said in order to skate through to a presidential nomination. He was finally president; he wasn’t going to let Ronald Reagan steal it from him.

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Reagan was in the North Country, campaigning in more rural areas of the state. One reporter asked him how he felt. A confident Reagan beamed, “I feel very good. Very good. I think our campaign’s going to have a lot of momentum coming out of here.” The Rockefeller campaign did everything it could to lower expectations. Senator Richard Schweicker, who was campaigning for the president in New Hampshire, said he wouldn’t be surprised if Reagan won. “After all, he’s out here campaigning all the time. President Rockefeller has a day job – and he’s doing a damn fine job of it if I may say so myself.”

On February 24th, voters across the Granite State went to the polls. The trajectory of the presidential election was on the ballot. Democrats were seeing a wide-open field. Though Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter came out on top in Iowa, it was anyone’s guess if he could sustain that lead going into New Hampshire. For the Republicans, if Rockefeller lost in New Hampshire it would likely be the end of his campaign. If the moderate couldn’t win in the northeast, he couldn’t win anywhere. Likewise, the Reagan campaign made New Hampshire a central part of its strategy. While a loss in the state would not end his campaign, Ronald Reagan was counting on victory. When polls closed, Mel Thomson, Reagan’s campaign chairman, appeared on WMUR where he said he expected the governor to win by five points. [5]

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Reagan's campaign strategy relied on winning New Hampshire to deliver an immediate knockout punch of President Rockefeller.

At 11:00 in the evening, the Manchester Union Leader declared victory for Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter. The Republican race was far less certain. At midnight, Rockefeller led Reagan by just 400 votes. Hours later, the president surged further, beating his primary challenger by more than 3,000 votes in the end. [6] Reagan was defeated. The papers soon ran the story that the Reagan campaign was in trouble. Suddenly, Reagan and his staff reversed course. They were never expected to do so well in New Hampshire, they said. The state’s location lent itself to Rockefeller and his political views. They argued Reagan’s near-victory was the story, not his defeat.

It was difficult for Reagan to put the cat back in the bag, however. He had already touted success and was now seen as having suffered a major setback in his bid for the presidency. On March 2nd, the president easily won the contests in Massachusetts and Vermont. The March 9th primary in Florida posed a major contest for both candidates. Polling suggested it leaned to Reagan, but the president had momentum and conservatives began doubting whether or not Reagan could really pull off a victory over the establishment. They weren’t about to toss their vote to Rockefeller, but many were content with staying home, convinced that they didn’t need to go through the trouble of voting because Reagan couldn’t win.

Reagan and his team recognized this problem and moved quickly to make Florida a top priority for them. Their initial strategy relied on a victory in the three major primaries right out of the gate: New Hampshire, Florida, and Illinois. [7] Without New Hampshire, they were struggling. Without Florida, they were done. If Reagan couldn’t beat Rockefeller in any significant contest after months on the campaign trail, it wasn’t worth the effort. His campaign team advised Reagan to hit Rockefeller where it hurt: his personal life. An attack on Rockefeller’s extramarital activities and his divorce would rally Reagan’s evangelical base. There was just one problem: Reagan, too, was divorced. Without the family values sword, Reagan chugged along, delivering the same stump speech and flashing his signature smile. It didn’t work. Reagan lost again in Florida. Meanwhile, Rockefeller’s message that he was a steady hand was working with Republican voters who thought Rockefeller was their best chance against the Democrats in November.

[1] This was a line repeated by Reagan according to Rick Perlstein’s The Invisible Bridge (I’ve lost the page number, unfortunately).

[2] This is an actual line from Regan’s 1976 stump speech. See Rick Perlstein’s The Invisible Bridge, 697.

[3] In OTL, the New Hampshire primary was a neck-and-neck battle through and through. Reagan awoke predicting victory on the morning of February 24th while neither the Ford nor Reagan camps were particularly confident. (Cannon, Lou. Governor Reagan: His Rise to Power, 416)

[4] Linda Taylor, and Reagan’s use of her was an effective part of his New Hampshire primary campaign according to Rick Perlstein’s The Invisible Bridge, 603.

[5] Thomson did do this, but it was before voting started. (Perlstein, Rick. The Invisible Bridge, 620)

[6] Ford only beat Reagan by 1,500 votes in New Hampshire. I’d like to defend Rockefeller’s larger victory here: He is a more gifted campaigner and more inclined to take the fight to Reagan. Another POD is that Nixon does not go to China just days before the New Hampshire primary as he did IOTL, which was believed to help Reagan slightly. It’s also possible that some independent voters crossed over and voted in the Republican primary as opposed to the Democratic primary as they like Rockefeller’s moderate record and he does not carry the baggage of Watergate.

[7] This according to Rick Perlstein’s The Invisible Bridge, 631.
 
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Yeah, Reagan isn't going to go the family values route with Rockefeller's divorce, not with his own...

Missing footnote 5 in the main update, BTW...
 
Great to see you're using The Invisible Bridge! I like your citations though I'm worried you're setting a standard that is too high for future TLs!
 

Vidal

Donor
Yeah, Reagan isn't going to go the family values route with Rockefeller's divorce, not with his own...

Missing footnote 5 in the main update, BTW...

Agreed. Also, thank's for the catch. I've added it in.

Great to see you're using The Invisible Bridge! I like your citations though I'm worried you're setting a standard that is too high for future TLs!

"If alternate history is a work of imagination, the 'alternate historian' has one obligation to readers: plausibility." -Jeff Greenfield.

In planning for this timeline, I realized that there are multiple different ways one could take the story because so much of it comes down to how you think the Ford assassination would affect the American psyche. Also, a primary battle between Reagan and Rockefeller is truly a controversial undertaking and I expect that as it progresses between that update and the next one, everyone is going to weigh in on how they think it might have gone. I want to make sure I have my ducks in a row to withstand any criticism.
 
Good update; have you read Jules Whitcover's Marathon, about the 1976 presidential race? That's also good...
 
Book I, Chapter III

Vidal

Donor
Book I - America in Waiting: The Remainder of Nixon's Term

Chapter III

The March to Kansas City

One of President Nelson Rockefeller’s first challenges in office was saving his hometown, New York City. For a decade the city was struggling with an unrealistic amount of spending and now the general economic woes of the nation, unemployment was above 12% in the city that never slept. The problem compounded itself and by 1974, the city was on the verge of bankruptcy. The position of the Ford Administration, despite the pleas of its vice president, was simple: Let New York go bankrupt. For Rockefeller, such a position would not suffice. Within days of taking office, Rockefeller was hard at work with Senator Jack Javits of New York and others to hammer out a plan to save the city.

In October 1975, President Rockefeller attended a National Press Club breakfast where he made a promise, “As long as I am president, New York City will not go under.” At the end of the month, he and Javits held a press conference in the White House briefing room and Rockefeller outlined his plan to save the city. Through 1977, New York City would be provided direct aid by the federal government. The aid took the form of loans that had to be paid back with interest at the end of each year. The loans would cease on June 30, 1977. Rockefeller assumed that six months into his reelection he could pass a bigger and more permanent mechanism to save New York when he didn’t need to worry about a Republican primary and he had more political capital to spend. Reagan immediately criticized the plan. “I’ve been traveling around the nation and I hear a lot of people asking me why New York isn’t going bankrupt and all I have to tell this is, ‘Look who’s in the White House.”

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New York Governor Hugh Carey and Mayor Abe Beame lobbied the Ford Administration extensively for NYC to receive federal aid.

In his announcement of the plan, Rockefeller made clear that his plan was not only about saving New York City but also about saving the United States economy. “If we were to allow the City of New York to go bankrupt, we would be putting the entire nation on a difficult economic footing. In fact, it could set off a domino effect that collapsed multiple businesses and perhaps other municipalities. As President of the United States, I have a responsibility to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he said. Not everyone believed it. A bailout of New York was largely unacceptable to most Americans, but Rockefeller’s balanced approach seemed to provide short-term aid so that the city could get back on its feet. It was palatable to most Americans, except for the Republican base.

In the wake of his loss in Florida, Ronald Reagan decided to resurrect his argument that Rockefeller was a candidate for the East Coast establishment. He traveled to his birth state, Illinois, to make the argument that voters in the Midwest could only count on one man: Ronald Reagan. The candidate visited Tampico High School, a school he did not attend, where he told reporters, “Oh my, such memories, here. You could get bathed in a warm bath of nostalgia.” [1] Rockefeller, seeing news coverage of the event turned to an aide, “Does this guy do anything besides bullshit?”

Despite losses in every contest except Iowa, Reagan was optimistic about his campaign’s chances. He was confident he would win in Illinois, though he’d learned not to say as much. Unfortunately, his campaign had to face a bitter reality: They were out of money. In his campaign stops, Reagan started hitting Rockefeller on his bailout of New York. “We can’t have a president,” Reagan said, “who is only concerned about his hometown!” The statement was awkward in that Reagan delivered it in his own birth state, but generally, voters ignored the inconsistency and agreed with Reagan that it was time for someone other than the Eastern elite to be represented in Washington.

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Even when some said he couldn't win, Reagan persisted in his campaign for the Republican nomination.

On Meet the Press, Reagan downplayed expectations. “I don’t think we need to win anything more than 40 percent of the vote,” he said on the program. [2] The Rockefeller campaign found it ridiculous. Dick Cheney, now a top member of the president’s campaign team, called the suggestion that Ronald Reagan could afford to lose Illinois “absolutely insane.” “The governor,” he said, “was born in the state. He has kept good relations with it. It’s a state naturally tailored to his politics. If Ronald Reagan can’t win Illinois, he can’t win the nomination. It’s that simple.” Privately, Rockefeller’s camp felt assured that they would win Illinois but wanted to make sure Reagan would not win by merely beating expectations.

Reagan came in second with about 43% of the vote in Illinois. The Reagan campaign declared it a victory. No one else did. His campaign was out of money and running out of time. The night of his defeat in Illinois, Ronald Reagan received an unexpected bit of advice from his wife, Nancy, who urged him to drop out of the race and end his campaign. She believed that by remaining in the race, Reagan was embarrassing himself and preventing any future presidential bid. “You’ve lost, Ronnie. It’s time to go home.” Reagan was furious. Why would he end his campaign? He had nothing to go back to. It made sense for him to remain a candidate until the Convention in Kansas City. There was a week before North Carolina, but the Reagan campaign barely had enough money to make it to the state. Advertisements were out of the question. Meanwhile, the Rockefeller campaign was rolling in cash. The Eastern establishment was thrilled to pour money into his effort that they could enjoy a final hurrah before, as Rockefeller put it, the Republican Party went the way of the “kooks.”

In North Carolina, it was hard for the Reagan team to remain optimistic. Conservative voters were likely to stay home, as they didn’t see a path to the nomination for their candidate. Senator Jesse Helms, however, was not content with allowing North Carolina, his home state, to be the final nail in the coffin for Reagan. He mobilized his apparatus in the state and delivered it to Reagan by five points. The Reagan campaign was ecstatic and the candidate enjoyed a new burst of energy and momentum – as well as cash. Conservatives started donating him money. Cheney characterized the Rockefeller campaign’s response, “At some point you have to look at the fact Reagan only won by five points in one of the country’s most conservative states. He doesn’t have a path to the nomination.”

With massive victories in New York, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Rockefeller reaffirmed his path to the nomination. The beginning of May would not be easy for the president, however. He lost in Texas, Georgia, Indiana, and Nebraska. It was an embarrassing stretch for the president, but Rockefeller recognized he had no natural constituency in those states. He came back and hit Reagan with wins in West Virginia, Maryland, and Michigan. West Virginia was a state few expected him to win, but he hung on against Reagan by dumping thousands into get out the vote efforts. He was now tapping into his vast personal fortune to defeat Reagan.

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President Rockefeller ran a massive campaign effort to win the Republican nomination in 1976 despite the political headwinds.

Rockefeller quickly realized that in order to end Reagan’s campaign, he had to beat him on his own turf. The president spent millions of dollars in Kentucky, Nevada, Oregon, and Tennessee ahead of the May 25th primaries there. He campaigned aggressively the week of the primary contests. He was certain that if he could just pick off some of them from Reagan, he would prove that Reagan barely appealed to his own base. Dole, too, campaigned hard. Without surrogates and without money, Reagan found it difficult to compete. He was running a message-oriented campaign, but too many voters were going without hearing his message. Again, in an effort to encourage conservatives to stay home, Rockefeller’s team reiterated that “Reagan was fighting a losing battle” that would only hurt the Republicans going into their fight against the Democrats in November. Rockefeller bested Reagan in Kentucky, Nevada, and Oregon. Reagan beat Rockefeller in Tennessee.

The primary contest ended in California where Reagan beat Rockefeller. It was on to Kansas City as no candidate had enough delegates to win the nomination outright. The president had a pit in his stomach – that he was about to lose the presidency after having just gained it. In the time between the California primary and the Republican National Convention, both candidates entertained delegates as best they could in hopes of schmoozing their way across the finish line. Rockefeller, especially, used his wealth to impress delegates. He invited many of those on the fence to the White House and his penthouse in New York.

Heading into the Republican Convention, Rockefeller’s team had several priorities. The first was to get the Mississippi delegation, a bloc of thirty votes, to undo their unit rule, allowing them to cast their votes individually. It was doubtful Rockefeller could win the majority of them and thereby take the 30 votes. Instead, he needed the votes of individual delegates so that he could still have 10-14 votes counted. Cheney, Rockefeller’s shrewd campaign manager, cut enough deals within the delegation to ensure they could unbind themselves from the winner-take-all plan. Many were unwilling to support Rockefeller outright, but Cheney persuaded them to agree to the rule change. Perhaps, some said later, with a literal exchange of cash. [3]

Ahead of the Convention, Dick Cheney made a bold suggestion to Rockefeller: Drop Dole and name Congressman Jack Kemp as his nominee for vice president. Rockefeller feared that doing so would alienate Dole himself as well as other conservative Republicans who didn’t quite fit into the New Right. Rockefeller thanked Cheney for the suggestion but said he was keeping Dole. Cheney pressed him, “Why on Earth are you so content with Bob Dole being vice president?” Rockefeller replied simply, “I could die.” He was unwilling to leave the White House in the hands of a Reagan or a Kemp. It was bad enough he couldn’t get away with leaving it to Bush.

The Republican National Convention opened amid chaos in Kansas City. On the first day of the Convention, Reagan, convinced he could not win unless he stole delegates from Rockefeller, announced he was naming Dick Schweicker, who endorsed and campaigned for Rockefeller in the primaries, as his running mate. Schweicker appeared with Reagan to say the two were united for victory in November. More than a few Rockefeller delegates looked at the ticket and respected Reagan for reaching out to them. Still, they’d rather have Rockefeller as the nominee. The nomination was most well received by traditionally conservative voters who now came around to the idea Reagan wasn’t as radical as the rest of the New Right.

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Reagan's decision to name Senator Dick Schweicker as his running mate backfired spectacularly, possibly costing him the nomination.

Reagan’s announcement came without consultation of Senator Jesse Helms, the man who won North Carolina for the former governor and was a key part of his Convention strategy. Helms was enraged and phoned Reagan. “If I had wanted Rockefeller to be on the bottom of the ticket, I would’ve told you to pick him!” He slammed down the phone and called James Buckley, the conservative senator of New York. He wanted Buckley to run a campaign on the floor to steal the nomination away from Reagan and Rockefeller. Buckley could take a substantial number of New York delegates and others from the Northeast and, combined with the Southern delegates Helms had in tow, could come out on top on the first ballot and by the third ballot sway enough people to his side to become the nominee. Buckley was less convinced and was concerned about upsetting the New York Republicans ahead of his Senate campaign there. With Buckley out, Helms took matters into his own hands.

“Rockefeller’s going to win this damn nomination,” he angrily told some North Carolina delegates. “I need you to vote for me on the floor instead of Reagan so that I can run a third party campaign and stop this guy in November.” The delegates fell in line. Meanwhile, Reagan was outraged that Helms had so brazenly abandoned his campaign at the 11th hour. Without Helms’ support, the South was gone. Reagan needed to get ahold of Helms. John Sears, Reagan’s campaign manager, found out where Helms was staying. Reagan and his entourage loaded into vehicles and drove off to corner Helms. When someone in Reagan’s campaign gave Helms the heads up, he left his hotel room and headed for the Convention Hall. Reagan missed him by minutes.

When the balloting started, Reagan knew that he would go down in defeat. Helms carried a great number of delegates from the South with him. Rockefeller, however, was not fully aware of Helms’ decision to enter the race until the nomination speeches were made. Up until that point, he was under the impression that the Schweicker deal had cost him the nomination. On the first ballot of the Convention, Nelson Rockefeller received 1,160 votes. Ronald Reagan finished with 872 delegates. Jesse Helms took 92 delegates. Nelson Rockefeller was the Republican nominee for president. [4]

[1] This according to Rick Perlstein’s The Invisible Bridge, 619.

[2] Reagan did this ahead of the Illinois primary IOTL as well. (Perlstein, Rick. The Invisible Bridge, 636)

[3] Cheney and Rockefeller did not get along while Rockefeller was the vice president. In fact, when the audio system cut out as Rockefeller gave his address at the OTL Convention, the candidate attributed it to Cheney. (Perlstein, Rick. The Invisible Bridge, 774) However, with Ford dead, Cheney would likely want to hold on to power. Still doubtful that Reagan could wrest the nomination from a sitting president, I find it conceivable that Cheney would try and get in Rockefeller’s good graces. Rockefeller, needing someone of Cheney’s ilk to help him win the nomination of a now more conservative party, would likely suck it up and appreciate Cheney’s value. It’s a very transactional relationship at this point.

[4] Another point of divergence is that Reagan is not given the opportunity to address the Convention. His famous 1976 remarks that cemented his iconic role within the GOP go unsaid.
 
Good update; Rockefeller better remember the quote that battle plans don't survive first contact with the enemy for his plan to save New York City...
 
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