Party Systems of the USA and Independent CSA?

[Rush Tarquin]

What are everyone's thoughts on the domestic politics of the USA and CSA in a TL where a Peace Democrat becomes president and ends the war?

First is the issue of who gets blamed for what in the North. Are the Republicans to blame because they are viewed as precipitating a civil war they failed to win? Are the copperheads traitors and the Peace Democrats fools for giving up part of the country they could have retained? Is the attitude good riddance to the South?

How damaged are the Democrats electorally without the Solid South? Where could they make up the difference? Are the USA and CSA dominated democracies by the Republicans and Democrats respectively until 1900? Are the US' Republicans even more dominated by OTL Radical Republicans and ACW military men? Is it even more corrupt?

How unpopular would blacks become in the North and would it translate into politics? Can the America Party make a comeback and displace one of the major parties in the US? Who will be the other party in the CSA and what name will they have: the Whigs? How strong will minor parties be, like a Texan Independence Party or South Carolina hardliner plantocracy party?

Will there be equivalents of OTL political movements and groupings like the Mugwumps, Bourbon Democrats, and Silverites? What would their party movements and affiliations end up being? What non-OTL movements can you see popping up in the US and South in this TL?

Will the Populists aim to force an alliance with Upper Midwest blue collar workers since the option of expanding into the rural South won't be open to them? Could/would they ditch silver to appeal to them? Could this start a western party which rolls the Populist, Progressive, Farmer-Labour, and Nonpartisan League into one movement/party? Can they replace one of the major parties in the US?

 

[Rush Tarquin]

No takers? Any random musing on the topic you might have had?

 

[M79]

Could you provide us with a draft of the final treaty and a map? IT might help to know how badly off the CSA starts...

 

[Rush Tarquin]

I'll use the map and treaty that was under discussion in another thread started by Anaxagoras. I don't have time to link to it now, but I'll get back to you.

 

[Anaxagoras]

I'll use the map and treaty that was under discussion in another thread started by Anaxagoras. I don't have time to link to it now, but I'll get back to you.

Below is the conceptual treaty in question (with some edits since it was last discussed). The scenario was, generally speaking, a more successful Confederate military effort during 1864, leading to the election of a Peace Democrat and an end of the war through a collapse of political will in the Union.

It has since occurred to me that a clause must be added requiring the withdrawal of Confederate forces from Union territory, as there would have been some small Confederate units operating in Missouri and Kentucky.

None of the maps that were posted in the thread were done by me, I should point out.

If anyone wants to discuss the treaty, I suggest that do so in the thread we originally had about it, rather than on this thread, as I would not want the general discussion about postwar politics to be derailed.

TREATY OF PEACE AND AMITY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE CONFEDERATE STATES OF AMERICA

The United States of America and the Confederate States of America, moved by a mutual and sincere desire to see the calamity of war and the unnecessary effusion of blood and treasure ended, and to establish peace on the firm foundations of friendship and mutual respect, have appointed for that purpose respective plenipotentiaries.

The President of the United States has appointed the following plenipotentiaries:
Horatio Seymour, Governor of the State of New York
John Dix, Major General of the United States Army
August Belmont, former Minister to the Netherlands
Charles Francis Adams, Ambassador to the Court of St. James

The President of the Confederate States has appointed the following plenipotentiaries:
Alexander Stephens, Vice President of the Confederate States
John Breckinridge, Major General of the Confederate Army
John Slidell, Minister to France
Benjamin Hill, Member of the Confederate Senate

These plenipotentiaries, after a reciprocal communication of their respective full powers, have arranged, agreed upon, and signed the following Treaty of Peace and Friendship Between the United States of America and the Confederate States of America.

Article I
There shall be a firm and universal peace between the United States and the Confederate States, and between their respective citizens, without any exception of places and persons.

Article II
The United States acknowledges the independence of the Confederate States.

Article III
Upon the exchange of mutual ratifications of this treaty, the military forces of the United States shall begin to withdraw from all territory of the Confederate States currently under their occupation, with such withdrawal to be completed in as expedient a manner as practical, but within two months in any event. Care shall be taken to avoid unnecessary disruptions to civilians and there shall be no unnecessary destruction of property during this time. The Confederate government, and its military forces, shall use all means within its power to assist the withdrawing United States forces.

Article IV
Immediately upon the exchange of mutual ratifications of this treaty, the United States and the Confederate States shall transmit orders to their respective naval vessels, wherever they might be, to immediately cease all hostile action against the other party. Furthermore, immediately upon the exchange of mutual ratifications of this treaty, the United States shall lift the naval blockade imposed upon the Confederate States on April 19, 1861.

Article V
All prisoners taken by either side, on land or sea, without regard to race or previous condition of servitude, shall be restored as soon as practical after the exchange of mutual ratifications of this treaty.

Article VI
The territory of the Confederate States of American consists of the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Texas, with the status of Tennessee being determined as specified in Article IX.

Article VII
Military posts, forts, and other government facilities that belonged to the United States government within the confines of a state on the date of that state’s secession from the United States shall devolve to the Confederate States, with the Confederate States paying to the United States a sum equal to the fair market value of said facilities in a timeframe later to be agreed upon.

Article VIII
The Confederate States forever abandons any and all territorial claims to the State of Maryland, the State of West Virginia, the State of Kentucky, the State of Missouri, the Territory of New Mexico, the Indian Territory, the District of Columbia, and any portions thereof.

Article IX
A plebiscite shall be held in the state of Tennessee to enable the citizens of the said state to decide for themselves whether their state shall remain within the United States or shall join the Confederate States. Immediately upon the exchange of mutual ratifications of this treaty, the United States and the Confederates States shall each appoint five commissioners to create a ten-person commission with authority to organize and oversee the plebiscite within the said state and to ensure that it be free and fair. The plebiscite shall be held within one year of the exchange of mutual ratifications of this treaty.

Article X
The following counties of Virginia are ceded to the United States: Fairfax, Loudoun, Alexandria, Mathews, and Accomack.

Article XI
Each party reserves to itself the right to fortify whatever point within its territory it may judge proper so to fortify for its security. However, any effort by military forces of one side to prevent the free passage of vessels belonging to the other side on the Potomac and Ohio Rivers in times of peace shall be an act of war.

Article XII
The United States and the Confederate States agree that the Indian Territory shall be an independent state under the mutual supervision and protection of both powers. Negotiations for establishing a proper government in the Indian Territory shall commence not less than six months after the mutual exchange of ratifications of this treaty.

Article XIII
Neither the United States or the Confederates States, nor any citizen thereof, shall be bound in any way or manner for any loss of property which may have regrettably taken place during the period of military hostility between the two nations. For the purposes of this treaty, “property” shall be held to include persons held to servitude under the laws of the Confederate States.

Article XIV
When traveling into the United States, citizens of the Confederate States shall not be permitted to bring persons held to servitude under the laws of the Confederate States with them.

Article XV
The vessels and citizens of the United States shall, in all time, have free, unhindered and uninterrupted use of the Mississippi River for means of transportation. In the Confederate ports on the Mississippi River, citizens of the United States shall enjoy the same rights and privileges on matters of deposit and harbor fees as citizens of the Confederate States. Armed vessels of a military nature belonging to the government of the United States may only transit the Mississippi River with the permission of the Confederate government and under escort by the Confederate military, and only if they proceed immediately from United States territory to the Gulf of Mexico.

Article XVI
The citizens of the United States and the Confederate States shall have the freedom to trade in the territory of the other nation and shall pay within the other nation no other or greater duties, charges or fees whatsoever than the most favored nations are or shall be obliged to pay; and they shall enjoy all the rights, privileges and exemptions in navigation and commerce, which the most favored nation does or shall enjoy; submitting themselves, nevertheless to the laws and usages there established, and to which are submitted the citizens and subjects of the most favored nations.

Article XVII
To facilitate commerce and friendly relations, the two nations grant to each other the liberty of having in the ports or inland centers of commerce of the other consuls, vice-consuls, agents & commissaries of their own appointment, whose functions shall be regulated by particular agreement whenever either party shall choose to make such appointment; but if any such consuls shall exercise commerce, they shall be submitted to the same laws and usages to which the private individuals of their nation are submitted in the same place.

Article XVIII
Vessels of one nation that are legally in the jurisdiction of the other nation shall be subject to the same rules, regulations and protections as are extended to the vessels of the other nation, but vessels belonging to a citizen of the United States or flying the flag of the United States shall not be permitted to transport persons held to servitude under any circumstances. When any vessel of either nation shall be wrecked, foundered, or otherwise damaged within the jurisdiction of the other, the crew and vessel shall receive the same assistance which would be due to the citizens of the nation in which the incident takes place.

Article XIX
If private citizens of either nation, acting under proper law, shall erect monuments or memorials to their respective war dead on battlefields in the territory of the other nation, the local authorities shall protect said monuments and memorials and treat any act of vandalism directed towards them as a serious criminal offense.

Article XX
Both nations agree that creditors on either side shall face no legal impediment to the full recovery of any legitimate debts they may have accrued before the separation of the United States and Confederate States.

Article XXI
One quarter of the United States national debt as of January 1, 1861, shall be assumed by the Confederate States.

Article XXII
If unhappily any disagreement should hereafter arise between the United States and the Confederate States, whether with respect to the stipulations of this treaty or for any other reason, the two nations honestly pledge to one another that they will endeavor in the most sincere manner to settle the difficulties so arising and to preserve the state of peace and friendship in which the two countries are now placing themselves, using, for this purpose, mutual representations and pacific negotiations. And if, by these means, they should not be enabled to come to an agreement, a resort shall not, on this account, be had to reprisals, aggression, or hostility of any kind, by the one nation against the other, until the government of that which deems itself aggrieved shall have maturely considered, in the spirit of peace and friendship, whether it would not be better that such difference should be settled by the arbitration of commissioners appointed on each side, or by that of a friendly nation. And should such course be proposed by either party, it shall be acceded to by the other, unless deemed by it altogether incompatible with the nature of the difference, or the circumstances of the case.

Article XXIII
If unhappily war should ever again arise between the two nations, the merchants of either nation then residing in the other shall be allowed to remain six months to collect their debts and settle their affairs, and may depart freely, carrying off all their effects, without molestation or hindrance.

CONCLUDED ONBOARD THE RIVER QUEEN ANCHORED IN HAMPTON ROADS AUGUST 2, 1865, RATIFIED BY THE UNITED STATES ON OCTOBER 1, 1865 AND THE CONFEDERATE STATES ON OCTOBER 6, 1865, RATIFICATIONS EXCHANGED AT CITY POINT, VIRGINIA, ON NOVEMBER 1, 1865.

 

[M79]

Why not give the Indian Nation a plebescite of their own - USA, CSA, or independence?

Otherwise given that it is late 1865 not bad...

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

Why not plebecites for Kentucky and Missouri? Implying the time this ACW ends there was alot of anti-Lincoln and some growing resentment towards the Union in both states at this point.

 

[Anaxagoras]

To answer the specific question about postwar politics...

In the North, the Peace Democrats would only have triumphed if the Northern public had become disillusioned and convinced that either the war was unwinnable or that victory would not be worth the additional cost in blood and treasure. To me, this would have been followed over the next two years by a serious case of buyer's remorse, especially as Union generals like Grant and Sherman began writing about how they would have been able to win had they simply been allowed to press on with the war.

I think you would see a Republican Party centered on New England, but with large pockets elsewhere, that would have been very hostile to the Confederacy and still fired up with abolitionism. However, the Democrats would have stilled controlled the big cities with their packs of voters and would have continued to win the support of the continuous stream of European immigrants as well as the border states. This would have resulted in a fairly even balance between the two sides and make for some pretty interesting politics.

In particular, the Democrats would have been hostile to the idea of allowing escaped slaves from the now-independent Confederacy from entering Union territory as these people would have ended up competing with immigrants for low skilled jobs in the big cities. I don't think you'd see anything like a Fugitive Slave Law, but I can see Democrats being in favor of patrolling the Ohio and Potomac Rivers to keep the slaves out. In turn, the Republican Party (which had a large bloc of nativist, anti-immigrant types in its early years) would have likely become the party of opposition to unrestricted immigration and more welcoming to escaped slaves.

In the South, we saw during the war IOTL the development of two principal factions. The first was the faction opposed to Jefferson Davis and lead by such men as Senator Louis T. Wigfall of Texas, Governor Joseph Brown of Georgia, and Vice President Alexander Stephens. This faction also attracted military figures who had earned the rancor of Davis, most especially Joseph Johnston (though he personally claimed to be politically disinterested). The other faction, naturally enough, was one which supported Davis.

This can be easily explained when you think about pre-war political thinking in the South. For two generations, the South had been on the political defense because of slavery and the instinct of every Southern politician was to see an attack of some sort in every word or action done by every politician from the North. When the Confederacy was formed, many Southern politicians simply shifted this attitude onto Davis, seeing in every action about taxation or conscription not a necessary war measure but a calculated action to destroy liberty. It's hard to shake off such attitudes.

I think the pro and anti-Davis attitudes would have come to a head when it came time to choose a successor to Davis in 1867. And despite the idea's popularity in alternate history, I see no reason to think that Robert E. Lee would have sought the presidency. I think the anti-Davis people would have put forth a candidate, some pro-Davis fellow would have then been leaned on to run, and you would have had the beginning of party politics in the Confederacy.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Why not give the Indian Nation a plebescite of their own - USA, CSA, or independence?

Otherwise given that it is late 1865 not bad...

Why not plebecites for Kentucky and Missouri? Implying the time this ACW ends there was alot of anti-Lincoln and some growing resentment towards the Union in both states at this point.

Good questions, but allow me to repeat. . . If anyone wants to discuss the treaty, I suggest that do so in the thread we originally had about it, rather than on this thread, as I would not want the general discussion about postwar politics to be derailed.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

To answer the specific question about postwar politics...

In the North, the Peace Democrats would only have triumphed if the Northern public had become disillusioned and convinced that either the war was unwinnable or that victory would not be worth the additional cost in blood and treasure. To me, this would have been followed over the next two years by a serious case of buyer's remorse, especially as Union generals like Grant and Sherman began writing about how they would have been able to win had they simply been allowed to press on with the war.

I think you would see a Republican Party centered on New England, but with large pockets elsewhere, that would have been very hostile to the Confederacy and still fired up with abolitionism. However, the Democrats would have stilled controlled the big cities with their packs of voters and would have continued to win the support of the continuous stream of European immigrants as well as the border states. This would have resulted in a fairly even balance between the two sides and make for some pretty interesting politics.

In particular, the Democrats would have been hostile to the idea of allowing escaped slaves from the now-independent Confederacy from entering Union territory as these people would have ended up competing with immigrants for low skilled jobs in the big cities. I don't think you'd see anything like a Fugitive Slave Law, but I can see Democrats being in favor of patrolling the Ohio and Potomac Rivers to keep the slaves out. In turn, the Republican Party (which had a large bloc of nativist, anti-immigrant types in its early years) would have likely become the party of opposition to unrestricted immigration and more welcoming to escaped slaves.

In the South, we saw during the war IOTL the development of two principal factions. The first was the faction opposed to Jefferson Davis and lead by such men as Senator Louis T. Wigfall of Texas, Governor Joseph Brown of Georgia, and Vice President Alexander Stephens. This faction also attracted military figures who had earned the rancor of Davis, most especially Joseph Johnston (though he personally claimed to be politically disinterested). The other faction, naturally enough, was one which supported Davis.

This can be easily explained when you think about pre-war political thinking in the South. For two generations, the South had been on the political defense because of slavery and the instinct of every Southern politician was to see an attack of some sort in every word or action done by every politician from the North. When the Confederacy was formed, many Southern politicians simply shifted this attitude onto Davis, seeing in every action about taxation or conscription not a necessary war measure but a calculated action to destroy liberty. It's hard to shake off such attitudes.

I think the pro and anti-Davis attitudes would have come to a head when it came time to choose a successor to Davis in 1867. And despite the idea's popularity in alternate history, I see no reason to think that Robert E. Lee would have sought the presidency. I think the anti-Davis people would have put forth a candidate, some pro-Davis fellow would have then been leaned on to run, and you would have had the beginning of party politics in the Confederacy.

This, very much.

The anti-Davis/oppostion party in the CSA has been given interesting names here on AH. Ones I liked were the "Liberty Party" in robertp6165's timeline and the "Constitution Party" in Turquoise Blue's timeline.

 

[Whanztastic]

I think in the north both the Republicans and the Democrats are going to have a hard time.

"Not all Democrats are traitors, but most rebels were Democrats."

 

[Rush Tarquin]

Below is the conceptual treaty in question (with some edits since it was last discussed).

Thank you very much for that.

If anyone wants to discuss the treaty, I suggest that do so in the thread we originally had about it, rather than on this thread, as I would not want the general discussion about postwar politics to be derailed.

And I strongly second this.

 

[Fiver]

For the Union, you'll probably see one party successfully dominating until about 1900 by blaming the other for the war, much like in OTL.

The one issue that united the Confederates - slavery - has been resolved, leaving them divided on most other issues. According to the book Look Away, the four main camps seemed to be Nationalist (favoring a stronger central government), Moderates (generally opposed to the power of the Davis government), Fire Eaters, and Reconstructionists. They also haven't divided into political parties yet; 1867 candidates will-probably be self-nominated and all nominally Democrats. That could easily include at least one candidate from each of the factions, since even Confederate politicians with similar political positions often had strong personal animosities towards each other.

Possible candidates include: David Atchison, Robert Barnwell, PGT Beauregard, J C Breckenridge, Joseph Brown, James Chestnut, Howell Cobb, Wiley Harris, Robert Hunter, Joseph Johnston, Robert E Lee, John Reagan, Robert Rhett, Alexander Stephens, Robert Toombs, Louis Wigfall, and Zebulon Vance. I'd expect at least three and possible half-a-dozen or more of these men to throw their hats in the ring in 1867. If the CSA survives the election, these factions would start coalescing into political parties.

Alternatively, the CSA, all nominally Democrats might become a single-party autocratic state. A lot of decentralization got pitched out the window by the Confederacy during the ACW. For most Confederate politicians, States Rights were anything but sacrosanct. The Border Ruffians, the LeCompton Constitution, the Fugitive Slave Law, the Dred Scott decision - all blatant violations of States Rights and all enthusiastically supported by much of the South. The Davis administration dictated rates to railroads and required blockade runners to carry government cargoes free of charge. Workers were drafted to keep them from striking and to get better rates out of industries. Civilian firearms were confiscated. Half-a-million dollars in goods was impressed by the Confederate government. Internal passports were required in certain areas. The CS government declared that any debts owed to Union citizens were now owed to the Confederate government. Emory Thomas points out that by 1863, more government workers were employed by Richmond than by Washington DC. Men who actually believed in States Rights like Brown of Georgia and Vance of North Carolina were generally seen as obstructionists, not hailed for their dedication.

 

[Plumber]

Zebulon Baird Vance was involved in the formation of the anti-Davis Conservative Party in NC. That could be a good party name.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

Anyone brave enough to project changes further into the future?

 

[Blackfox5]

Regardless of the initial pro-Davis and anti-Davis factions, I think eventually the party system in the CSA will still be similar to what we saw in the US before the war in the South.

On one hand we will have the part of the aristocratic plantation slaveocracy. This is basically the South Carolinian position under Calhoun. These are the old style Jeffersonian Democrats.

Then we will have a faction in favor of the common white man, like Andrew Jackson. These are obviously the Jacksonian Democrats.

Then we will see a party of national development like the Whigs. Whigs will probably enjoy a lot of support from junior and senior military officers, much like how the Federalists were dominated by the Continental Army officers. Seeing how bad the national government was in servicing the army, they will want reforms to prevent such inefficiencies in the future.

Both the first and third factions are essentially elite minority factions and consumate enemies of each other. Who wins depends on which party better adopts the Jacksonian positions of bettering the common man.

IOTL, the Jacksonian faction basically reconciled with the slave aristocrats in unity to keep the freedman down. ITTL, that won't be an issue. It's possible they could go to any neo-Whig party provided they champion improvements that ordinary whites could use.

I think much depends on individual personalities and who can capture the imagination of early voters.

 

[Kuamong]

Might see the rise of a socialist party in the CSA once the slaves are freed. IMO, I think that's implausible, but what the heck. The Southern Democrats will survive in some form, maybe change their name to avoid confusion with their Union counterparts.

The Democrats in the Union may embrace the Progressive movement. I can see this being a possibility because the Dems will end up being the party of "Unable to finish", and the Republicans will use this to further their hold on US politics for sometime.

 

[Indigo]

My hypothesis for a southern victory. Lee is elected overwhelmingly in 1867 as a kind of George Washington who holds together pro and antidavis factions. However, he dies halfway through his term(per OTL) without having accomplished any major policy decisions. His VP John Reagan(Good balance as not military and in the Davis faction) succeeds him for the remainder of the term, and declines to run again. In 1873 is when the election becomes important. At this point probably either Longstreet,Taylor or Beauregard is elected president. I suspect Taylor as Beauregard is too foreign and Longstreet is probably less adept at politics than him.

 

[wolf_brother]

I always figured any TL that ends with an independent CSA would lead to the destruction of both the Dems and the GOP in the US. The Republicans had led the union into civil war, and then lost, and the Democrats had been actively supporting the insurrection. This would lead to groups like the Constitutional Unionists winning out big - "See, I told you so! See what talking about Slavery did to us! It's best to just ignore these things and carry on like they don't exist at all."

 

[Indigo]

I'm not sure that they would be destroyed. i figured it be something like the post vietnam war period, except with republicans being thought of as pro-vietnam(and vietnam being the confederacy and republicans and democrats being switched). So a wilderness period after the first peace democrat, then back to reps and dems (and populists).