Part I. Consequences if western-Soviet dividing line ran through Poland..

If the west and Soviet met in Poland on VE Day, the Polish-German border


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raharris1973

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..or Czechoslovakia at VE Day?

We can use the the forum to discuss whether a PoD allowing this is even plausible, but I'd also like to assume it as a starting point and "skip ahead" to some post-Nazi consequences:

-fate of ethnic Germans and the eastern German frontier?

Would Benes decrees expelling ethnic Germans still be enforced, or not?

Would Poland "move west" and if so, by the same amount as OTL or less?

Points against -

Western Allies more likely to have moral qualms against ethnic cleansing Germans than Soviets

Western Allies have a huge German constituency under occupation and would need to assume full responsibility and cost for dealing with Germans expelled from East Prussia, Pomerania or Silesia

Points in favor -

The portion of pre-1939 Poland out of Soviet control, liberated by the west and accessible to the London Poles will be fairly small, particularly compared to 1939 Poland. (see attached maps for alternative lines)

There would be many Poles seeking homes postwar, many of them victims of deliberate expulsion from Soviet territories (and earlier Nazi confiscations), and many others objecting to life under a communist Polish regime, who would be eager to settle in former German territories.
 

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raharris1973

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related map for potential lines in Czechoslovakia

...also attached.
 

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I'm sorry, but NONE of the proposed partition lines make ANY SENSE. You completely disregard the terrain - rivers, mountains, lakes etc.

My division proposals:

1. Wisloka - Vistula - Narew rivers (basically late 1944 OTL frontiers)
2. Vistula all the way

With western border being 1938 with Poland gaining all Oppeln Silesia + Middle Pomerania.

Intersting effect is divided Warsaw. While both resulting countries (West & East Poland) would undoubtly claim Warsaw as the capital, the seats of government will move to Lodz (West) and Lublin (East) most likely.
 
How could WAllies even reach Poland before Soviets?

Perhaps a failed Stalingrad breakout? Kursk turns into a disaster.

On another note, having Read the first chapter of "all Hell let loose", if a democratic West Poland was to emerge I would find it extremely gratifying if the WP Gov froze both France and Britain out for their conduct towards Poland.
 
You'd need the Axis to actually crush the soviets and push them into siberia. Then, the germans would need to occupy the former soviet territory and, considering how they dealt with the natives, they'd have a lot of armed resistance on their hands.

So then, once the western allies break through and establish themsevles in Western Europe, the germans will need to pull a large portion of their army back west to deal with them. Then comes a second attack from the russians, which re-establishes soviet control over their own territory.
 
Intersting effect is divided Warsaw. While both resulting countries (West & East Poland) would undoubtly claim Warsaw as the capital, the seats of government will move to Lodz (West) and Lublin (East) most likely.
I'd assume that West Polish State would be based in Poznań rather than Łódź. Łódź is too large, not that old and full of workers. It would be an excellent candidate for secondary socialist capital, but not the western one.
 
I'd assume that West Polish State would be based in Poznań rather than Łódź. Łódź is too large, not that old and full of workers. It would be an excellent candidate for secondary socialist capital, but not the western one.
I assumed that at first W.Poland government would expect unification to happen soon, so at first all offices would stay in Warsaw. Only later they'd realise that situation isn't going to change soon and having Ministry of Military Affairs in range of enemy artillery fire is not a good idea. But because Warsaw would stay the official capital, some institutions would stay - such as Sejm, Ministry of Education and some other ministries, ambassies etc. But with i.e. President & Prime Minister in Poznań and Sejm in Warsaw all that traveling would be a chore. So I chose a first big city close to Warsaw - Łódź - as a seat of government.
 

Orry

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How could WAllies even reach Poland before Soviets?

Army Coup - realising that the war can not be won they concentrate of keeping the 'Red Terror' away from the Fatherland... they would rather be occupied by the western allies.

Needs to be early enough that the western allies have not agreed the division of Germany...

If the Germans concentrate 'everything' in the east and welcome the Western Allies then the physical requirments would be met.

Perfectly possible as a wargamed senario but how you would get it to work in 1940's europe is harder to see
 
How could WAllies even reach Poland before Soviets?
Fabian von Schlabrendorff's plan to kill Hitler on his flight back to Germany from Smolensk succeeds, and Germany gets a reasonably sane leader, who realises that defeat is inevitable and that the Soviets are much more of a threat to the German way of life than the Western Allies, and so throws all Germany's resources into stopping them at the expense of leaving France virtually unguarded. A little far-fetched perhaps, but IMO about the best you're likely to get.
 

raharris1973

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Tizoc and Magnificate...

See attached map which is a more detailed treatment of actual changes in the frontline in 1944-1945.-- Care to post your own maps of the what you think the more probable dividing lines would be.

I found that most parts were too large a file when saving them as a picture file, so I marked up the maps in powerpoint, and saved it as a .pdf to get the file size down.



Luath- I'm not sure what you were getting at here.

On another note, having Read the first chapter of "all Hell let loose", if a democratic West Poland was to emerge I would find it extremely gratifying if the WP Gov froze both France and Britain out for their conduct towards Poland.


hhmmm, I'm not familiar with the book, but is it about how the western powers let Poland down, so you're saying an appropriate reply would be a west Poland being hostile toward Britain and France (presumably relying on ties to the US alone?)
 

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  • Poland map 1945.pdf
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raharris1973

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Is this a decent approximation of Tizoc's dividing lines?

The attached .pdf contains two alternative eastern borders, and an estimated western border for a "west Poland". of course might the rivers and particulars of combat make even a more tiny west Poland, centered on Poznan, well west of Lodz, with the border in the north running up the Vistula until it bends to the east, continuing south until it runs into the north-south course of the Notec (Netze), and then continuing south until it hits the bend of the Warta river, and continuing up river, and south, along the course of the Warta , until nearing the Carpathians and Vistula again?
 

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  • Poland map 1945 borders.pdf
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Luath- I'm not sure what you were getting at here.




hhmmm, I'm not familiar with the book, but is it about how the western powers let Poland down, so you're saying an appropriate reply would be a west Poland being hostile toward Britain and France (presumably relying on ties to the US alone?)

I apologize for polluting your thread good sir, in all honesty it was a moment of bitter pettiness brought on by facing up to a harsh reality. Of course no surviving West Polish government would even think of removing themselves from the influence of such regional powers. But there would probably be a lot of bitterness in WP post war regarding the failure to fully respond to the invasion. Still a Timeline were West Poland becomes a beacon of hope for Poles would defiantly be something I'd want to read.
 
Fabian von Schlabrendorff's plan to kill Hitler on his flight back to Germany from Smolensk succeeds, and Germany gets a reasonably sane leader, who realises that defeat is inevitable and that the Soviets are much more of a threat to the German way of life than the Western Allies, and so throws all Germany's resources into stopping them at the expense of leaving France virtually unguarded. A little far-fetched perhaps, but IMO about the best you're likely to get.

Any extra German troops sent to the Eastern Front would get ripped apart by the Soviets. The Germans simply lacked the manpower & resources to stop the Red Army post-Kursk.

Also without Hitler the German state would fall apart, meaning the Soviets might reach the Rhine not the Elbe.

Even if it didn't occupation zones in Germany were going to be split between the Grand Alliance, and no German government was going to get terms from the Allies.


As for Poland, for a start ''Eastern-Poland'' would be annexed to the U.S.S.R the western half could at best hope for Finlandization. Though even that is nearly ASB.
 
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