http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Protocols
A tenative deal was reached allowing the Germans use of bases but not really followed up.
the POD:
Rommels attack on Torbruk on April 30th 1941 succeeds and this impresses both the French and Hitler that Britain is weak enough to be beaten.
Lets say that Admiral Reader seizes the moment and convices Hitler if he delays Barbarossa one year, the French are willing to deal, and with the use of the French bases and if he gets cooperation from the Luftwaffe he can defeat the British by May of 1942 and Hitler can invade the Soviet Union then (with perhaps even Turkey joining in). Raeders sells this on the fact that beyond, the shipping war advantages, the Luftwaffe could make Gibralter unusable from French African bases, with Gibralter unusable, Malta if kept under air attack will fall, Rommel has retaken Cyrencia and Greece has fallen, Rommel has captured Tobruk and many supplies, Alexandria looks vulnerable. The Bismarck is about ready to raid. Iraq is in revolt. Condors based in Dakar can reach far into the Atlantic...
Lets say Hitler was thus willing to release significant numbers of POWs (lets say 20% of the 1.5 million French POWS immediately and 20% each May the deal is in place, plus 20% lower occupation costs, and a 20% reduction each year the deal is in place, Hilter also conceeds that France will get everything back in a final peace except Alsace Lorraine, and the French were willing to accept this deal.
With that the French agree to let the Germans use Dakar and Casablanca as submarine and air bases agains the Atlantic sea lanes. basically German aircraft, naval units, and air and naval personnel (including anti-aircraft) will be allowed in any Vichy colony (even including Syria) that they want to go, French units will defend these bases but otherwise won't attack Britain.
What could the Germans do in 1941 with French bases, and their armed forces fully committed against Britain, could they force Britain to the peace table???
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My own thought is this likely leads to war with the USA in a short period of time.
A tenative deal was reached allowing the Germans use of bases but not really followed up.
the POD:
Rommels attack on Torbruk on April 30th 1941 succeeds and this impresses both the French and Hitler that Britain is weak enough to be beaten.
Lets say that Admiral Reader seizes the moment and convices Hitler if he delays Barbarossa one year, the French are willing to deal, and with the use of the French bases and if he gets cooperation from the Luftwaffe he can defeat the British by May of 1942 and Hitler can invade the Soviet Union then (with perhaps even Turkey joining in). Raeders sells this on the fact that beyond, the shipping war advantages, the Luftwaffe could make Gibralter unusable from French African bases, with Gibralter unusable, Malta if kept under air attack will fall, Rommel has retaken Cyrencia and Greece has fallen, Rommel has captured Tobruk and many supplies, Alexandria looks vulnerable. The Bismarck is about ready to raid. Iraq is in revolt. Condors based in Dakar can reach far into the Atlantic...
Lets say Hitler was thus willing to release significant numbers of POWs (lets say 20% of the 1.5 million French POWS immediately and 20% each May the deal is in place, plus 20% lower occupation costs, and a 20% reduction each year the deal is in place, Hilter also conceeds that France will get everything back in a final peace except Alsace Lorraine, and the French were willing to accept this deal.
With that the French agree to let the Germans use Dakar and Casablanca as submarine and air bases agains the Atlantic sea lanes. basically German aircraft, naval units, and air and naval personnel (including anti-aircraft) will be allowed in any Vichy colony (even including Syria) that they want to go, French units will defend these bases but otherwise won't attack Britain.
What could the Germans do in 1941 with French bases, and their armed forces fully committed against Britain, could they force Britain to the peace table???
----------------------------------------------------------
My own thought is this likely leads to war with the USA in a short period of time.