Paris Peace Talks break down Allies invade Germany 1919

Now IIRC the whole lead up to the signing of the treaty of Versailles was quite tenuous as the Germans didn't quite seem to get that they'd lost the war. How could we get it so the peace talks break down and the war resumes with the Allies invading Germany?
 
Hindenburg declare a second war of national liberation (ala the war against Napoleon) and an enraged German population rises up to throw Allied forces back over the 1914 border. The Allied powers are forced to settle for a much weaker treaty while Hindenburg becomes undisputed dictator with the possible return of the Kaiser as his puppet.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Pretty simple, have Scheidemann defeat Ebert in the internal SPD discussion, wether the Social Democtrats should support the Treaty of Versailles.
With the SPD against it, it would have died.
Since it is an internal party decision Ebert would have backed it without loosing face (the public might never know that he was for it) and stayed president.
They wouldn't have resumed the fight, they hardly had troups, but had the allies really the will and manpower of occupiing the whole of Germany.


Even better is, if Ebert resign with Scheidemann, and every new Government will resign the moment it is asked to sign the treaty.

Once the soviet army reaches the Vistula, France and England will make a better offer.
 
Hindenburg declare a second war of national liberation (ala the war against Napoleon) and an enraged German population rises up to throw Allied forces back over the 1914 border. The Allied powers are forced to settle for a much weaker treaty while Hindenburg becomes undisputed dictator with the possible return of the Kaiser as his puppet.

The allies slowly and bloodily grind Germany into the dust, actually.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Hindenburg declare a second war of national liberation (ala the war against Napoleon) and an enraged German population rises up to throw Allied forces back over the 1914 border. The Allied powers are forced to settle for a much weaker treaty while Hindenburg becomes undisputed dictator with the possible return of the Kaiser as his puppet.

You can say a lot of bad things about Hindenburg (and they are probably right), but his loyalty to Kaiser Wilhelm II. was never in question.
 
No way, the Allies (even the Americans, who in comparison only lost a few thousand) were almost at the breaking point, whereas the German war effort would have been renewed as there were defending their own country instead of occupying France and Flanders.

The allies slowly and bloodily grind Germany into the dust, actually.
 
No way, the Allies (even the Americans, who in comparison only lost a few thousand) were almost at the breaking point, whereas the German war effort would have been renewed as there were defending their own country instead of occupying France and Flanders.

:eek::confused:

The Germans were literally starving to death. They had morale problems when the discovered the Allies had actual bread during the Michael offensive. They have no allies left, and they no longer have the strength or manpower to hold defensive lines anymore. Look at the OTL Hundred Days.

And: the Americans were at the breaking point? After what? Second Marne and the Hundred Days?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
No way, the Allies (even the Americans, who in comparison only lost a few thousand) were almost at the breaking point, whereas the German war effort would have been renewed as there were defending their own country instead of occupying France and Flanders.

Sorry, but you are wrong, the German army started to fall appart in Sommer 1918. People where hungry and German soldiers didn't even care enough anymore to bury there dead comrades.
 
Sorry, but you are wrong, the German army started to fall appart in Sommer 1918. People where hungry and German soldiers didn't even care enough anymore to bury there dead comrades.

Oh, and plus the massive surrenders of German troups, even in large, relatively well-armed groups: morale was in the sh*tter at that point.
 
The German war effort would not be 'renewed' since even if morale can suddenly receive a shot in the arm that does nothing for irreplacable materials such as ferrous metals and grain. Germany had shot her bolt. The previous 6 months had not been spent solving the problems, it had been spent struggling to get by and in a state of disorganisation.

The blockade of Germany was kept up during the negotiations, it would certainly be maintained in the event of a return to war. Germany was dependent on food imports through the blockade which they struggled to pay for in part due to intransigence of the entente powers. Were war restored this would be cut off. Starving people struggle to make war.

The actual number of people who would be interested in rallying to renewed combat is also debatable. Although an isolated and short lived example, consider the Soviet Republic in Bavaria. By 1919 it is quite clear Germany has lost. Once the allies push over the Rhine, something they would manage without too much difficulty, they shall take the Ruhr and the German economy, which is already on its last legs, shall truely collapse. Starving soldiers with minimal ammunition or heavy weapons will struggle to oppose the Allies who possess these things.

While allied morale shall take a hit that they must once again return to war, they had not expected Germany to surrender when she did. The British atleast had plans for 1919 campaigning, possibly up to 1920. They are certainly in a better state to continue the war than Germany. Clemenceau and Foch shall be overjoyed: that border on the Rhine is as good as done.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
While allied morale shall take a hit that they must once again return to war, they had not expected Germany to surrender when she did. The British atleast had plans for 1919 campaigning, possibly up to 1920. They are certainly in a better state to continue the war than Germany. Clemenceau and Foch shall be overjoyed: that border on the Rhine is as good as done.

So what do they do if there is no more German army, no more German Government?
They occupy the country, that is very expensive.
Are they able to fed the entire German population?
 
At a guess no, lots more Germans will starve to death in the chaos. Occupation is only expensive if it is protracted and your obeying certain rules. If the French and British start shifting everything in Germany that isn't nailed down then the occupation, atleast in the short term, could be quite lucrative. Certainly more so than reparations which would likely never be paid.

Presumerably they try to form a German government. It likely goes badly. Revolution from the left seems quite likely, especially if the right have discredited themselves with a romantic, if doomed, last stand.
 

Markus

Banned
Pretty simple, have Scheidemann defeat Ebert in the internal SPD discussion, wether the Social Democtrats should support the Treaty of Versailles.
With the SPD against it, it would have died.
Since it is an internal party decision Ebert would have backed it without loosing face (the public might never know that he was for it) and stayed president.
They wouldn't have resumed the fight, they hardly had troups, but had the allies really the will and manpower of occupiing the whole of Germany.


Even better is, if Ebert resign with Scheidemann, and every new Government will resign the moment it is asked to sign the treaty.

Once the soviet army reaches the Vistula, France and England will make a better offer.

That is a VERY good scenario, from the beginning to the end! The Allies could have easily taken all of Germany, but they still would not have found a political leader who would have signed it.
France could have reacted by supporting secessionists even more, but England did not like that idea very much in OTL and compared to a full scale invasion and occupation of a country with a hostile population and an uncooperative government that´s small potatoes.
 

Typo

Banned
The allies will be in position to do what was actually done to Germany post-1945. Germany might be partitioned, there would probably be a much greater emotional commitment to keeping the Germans down, the allies might be more willing to actually enforce their terms.

Actually the British were planning on using massed tank offensive in Germany in 1919 if the Germans don't surrender first.

Here's Dale Cozort's scenerio
http://members.aol.com/dalecoz/WW2_0198.htm
What actually happened: Germany's World War I era government collapsed on November 10, 1918. The armistice ending World War I quickly followed. From November 1918 thru May 1919, Germany's new civilian government fought a series of small-scale civil wars against German communists. Meanwhile the victorious Allies were hammering out the terms of German surrender. They were harsh. The Allies presented those terms to German negotiators on April 29, 1919. The terms were published in Berlin on May 7, 1919. The Germans were furious, but by that time they didn't feel that they had much choice but to sign. They signed the treaty a few hours before the deadline on June 24, 1919. As allied terms for Germany's eastern borders became more apparent, some circles in Germany seriously considered going back to war, at least in the east. Cooler heads prevailed, and Germany's border with Poland was temporarily settled through a mixture of plebiscites in some areas, and small scale wars between unofficial forces supported by the two countries in others. Germany actually didn't do too badly in the border disputes. Some mixed areas went to Poland, but others went to Germany. Inter war Germany had quite a few Poles. What might have happened: In early March 1919, word of the early plans for the German/Polish border leak out. Those early plans were much more favorable to the Poles than the border that was eventually established. They would have left 3 million Germans inside Polish borders, and would have given Poland a large chunk of Prussia. The Allies deny that any border has been agreed upon. That is true, but it is not believed in Germany. Germans in the disputed regions have already formed militias to fight the Poles and the Communists, but the fighting with the Poles has died down to some extent. German nationalists now begin mobilizing for an all out war. The German army also begins making contingency plans for resuming the fighting if the peace plan is not acceptable. German militias in border areas with Poland become very well armed. They win some big victories in the renewed fighting and it becomes obvious that the Polish army itself is in trouble. The most effective Polish army in existence in 1919 is something called Haller's army. It is a French trained and equipped group of somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 men who were being groomed for a role on the Western front at the end of World War I. In March 1919, Haller's army is still in France. It's needed urgently in Poland. In our history, Germany reluctantly allowed Haller's army to be shipped across Germany over a period of time--probably in late March or early April 1919. In this scenario, the Germans don't actually refuse to let it cross, but they procrastinate throughout April. The Poles desperately need that army. They are fighting border wars with German nationalists in the west and Ukrainian nationalists in Galacia on the east. German soldiers returning from the eastern front are encouraged by German nationalists to turn over their weapons to the Ukrainians. Some even stay as mercenaries or advisers.
The Allies are very reluctant to start the war up again. They take some precautionary steps, but otherwise wait to see if the German government will sign the peace treaty. Parts of Haller's army gradually filter over to Poland in roundabout ways through May and June, but the Poles take it on the chin both in the German border areas and in Galacia. In Galacia, the major city of Lvov falls to the Ukrainian nationalists in early May. Along the German/Polish border, the German militias gradually advance, constrained more by fear of Allied intervention than by Polish opposition. Haller's men gradually change that as the deadline for the peace treaty approaches. The Allied attitude toward the Germans gradually hardens as it becomes obvious that the German militias are being used by the German government to impose their vision of peace in the east. As a result, the Germans fare worse in the peace treaty than they did in our time line. The allies repeatedly demand that Germany disband the militias. Germany claims that it does not control them.

The Germans still have forces on the other side of Poland, along the old eastern front with Russia. The Allies have encouraged those forces to remain as a screen against the Bolsheviks. As tensions rise between the Poles and the Germans, supplies to those forces through Poland becomes an issue. Germany tries to keep that eastern army in existence. That's difficult because the men are tired of war and just want to come home. Poland frantically tries to build a modern army, while the new German regime tries to consolidate power, partly by appealing to German nationalism and anti-Polish feelings.

The Germans work frantically to line up allies.. They try to line up discontented elements in what used to be Austria-Hungary. They try to work out a tacit understanding with the Bolsheviks to cooperate with the Germans against the Allies. In our history a Bolshevik regime took power in Hungary from March to July of 1919 but was defeated by the Czechs and Romanians. In this scenario, the Germans wouldn't be eager to help the Bolsheviks given their own internal situation, but they might use the situation to distract the Allies

The German government knows that Germany can't win a renewed war. They also know that the Allies are not at all eager to restart the fighting either. They play a dangerous game, skating to the edge of renewed war to gain concessions. The deadline for the Germans to sign the treaty comes and goes. The Germans say that they don't want a renewed war, but that no German government can sign that peace treaty. They also play the Bolshevik card, saying that trying to impose that peace on the Germans will lead to a Bolshevik takeover in Germany.
The situation gets out of control. Haller's army is now mostly in place. The French have sent large amounts of equipment to Poland, though it takes a while due to the roundabout way it has to get there. Large numbers of French officers are training the new Polish army. The tide turns in the war between the German militias and the Poles. The Germans funnel more arms and men to the militias and to the Ukrainians. The Allies are somewhat split. The French want to make sure the Germans are not in a position to become a power in Europe again. The English are reluctant to go to war again to put more Germans in Poland. The Italians aren't pleased with their booty from the peace treaty. Any Italian contribution would be token. The Americans just want to get their people home again. But none of them are willing to let Germany get away with defying them. The Allies declare that a state of war exists, and issue an ultimatum to expire in 48 hours.
The German government makes the decision to sign, but is quickly overthrown by nationalist army officers. In the chaos, the Bolsheviks make another bid for power. As the fighting inside Germany goes on, the time limit on the ultimatum expires. The Allies start their advance. The German Bolsheviks are put down with a great deal of ruthlessness, and the new regime tries to gather the shattered country for war. Germany is still under blockade, and they desperately need food. The Germans decide to try to hold the line in the west while destroying Poland or forcing it to capitulate in the east. That would give Germany renewed access to the Ukraine's farmlands and give it a fighting chance.
In Russia, the fighting complicates an already strange multi-sided struggle. The allies want to help a White (anti-Bolshevik) Russian regime to power. Then they could funnel aid to Poland through Russia. The Russian Bolsheviks are trying to help their German comrades overthrow the German government, but the Russian Bolsheviks are tacitly allied with that German government against the White Russians and the Allies. The White Russians aren't thrilled by the existence of an independent Poland, but are willing to tolerate it for the time being in order to get Allied aid. Ukrainian, Lithuanian, and Byelorussian nationalists are willing take help from anyone who is willing to give it to them, but they are smart enough to realize that the Germans are probably going to lose, so any alliance with the Germans is unspoken. German "mercenaries" train their armies in exchange for food. Unfortunately, the nationalist governments are weak enough that they can't really ensure that food. They are also wary of the Germans because the Germans helped overthrow an earlier Ukrainian government in favor of a puppet government.
This strange pseudo-World War II goes on from about June 27, 1919 to late November 1919. The Germans initially win big in Poland while giving ground reluctantly in the west. The Allies have such a superiority in tanks and aircraft and manpower by mid-1919 that the German retreat in the west starts to become a collapse. The German offensive into Poland takes Warsaw, but the Poles fight on and the Germans have to pull most of their forces out to fight in the west to avoid a collapse. That collapse comes anyway. The allies have literally thousands of tanks, and using them in masses. They have control of the air. The only reason the war doesn't end sooner is that the allies can't find a German government willing to surrender to them, so they have to take the entire country, fighting pockets of die-hard nationalists and Bolsheviks. While troops from the Western Allies and Poland link up in November 1919, pockets of fighting go on into 1920. Die hard German troops continue fighting on various sides of the Russian civil war for years afterward (which implies that the Russian civil war lasts longer in this scenario--I'll get to that later.)
How realistic is all of this? The Germans would be stupid to do this, but there have been plenty of times when a determined minority have forced a government into an impossible situation. If the Germans from the areas that were to be lost to Poland had time to organize, they could have made it impossible for the Germans to sign the treaty ending World War I. I can't see the Allies letting the Germans get away with not signing, so I think it's very possible that war could have come again in 1919, in spite of the war weariness in every country.

Short Term Consequences: In Russia: With a war going on with Germany, Allied aid to the White Russians in 1919 would be more determined. I suspect that the Whites would be able to physically occupy Moscow and possibly Petersburg. That wouldn't end the civil war. The Bolsheviks would probably regroup somewhere in Russia, just like the Chinese communists did after they lost to Chiang in the first round of the Chinese civil war. There would be a long period of chaos in Russia as the White Russians attempted to establish effective control. They would be resisted by the remaining Bolsheviks and by a bewildering array of local forces representing peasant and worker factions. I could see civil wars continuing into the mid-1920s.
In Germany: That's a tough one. If the German communists were smart, they would try to wrap themselves in the mantle of opposition to foreign military presence. German nationalists would blame the communists for a "stab in the back". Separatist forces would be strong in some parts of Germany. (They were in our time line immediately after World War I). France and Poland would encourage those separatists. The Allies would give Poland it's maximum demands against Germany. Any disputed areas would go to Poland, including about a third of the part of East Prussia cut off from Germany by the Polish corridor. The rest of East Prussia would become a nominally independent state under Poland's watchful eye. Initially, the Allies would try to extract huge war reparations from Germany. When that didn't work they would start dismantling industrial machinery and carting it off. Eventually they would realize that wasn't going to work. Germany would have to be integrated back into the world system in some way. I suspect that would happen in the mid-1920s.
In the Allied countries: The Allies would end up with a big emotional commitment to Poland's existing borders with Germany. After all, that's what round two of World War I was all about. They would also end up with more experience at mobile warfare and more appreciation of the value of tanks. Unfortunately, they would also end up with more obsolete Renault FT era tanks. That haunted the French army through the beginning of World War II in our time line. There would be even more fear of Germany throughout Europe. I think the Americans would still go isolationist. England and France would probably be forced to remain close for a while longer, but they would still become rivals to some extent in the 1920s. Italy would still be dissatisfied by the peace, and it would still probably give rise to Mussolini or someone like him. As revolutionaries in Russia, Lenin and company would have less influence in the rest of the world than they did as the leader of a major power. That would have major impacts on European politics. I have no idea how that would play out.
In Central and Eastern Europe: Poland would expand at the expense of Germany, but it would also have less territory in the east. Given this scenario, I suspect that Poland would not be able to expand very much into disputed territory on the east. It would probably end up with about the borders on the east that it has now. There would probably be an independent Ukrainian state, though it would not control the majority of Ukrainian territory. It would be somewhat larger than the Ukrainian-speaking part of Galacia. Its existence would be precarious, with both the Poles and the Russians claiming parts of it, but both of them would be otherwise occupied so it might survive. I doubt that much else would change. The winners among the little countries of Central and Eastern Europe would still be too greedy for their own good. The losers would still want revenge.
Long Term Consequences: Would there be a Great Depression? Probably. World War I did too much damage to the world economic system. Those chickens had to come to roost somehow and somewhere.
Would there be a real World War II? Eventually. The Germans wouldn't find it quite as easy to rearm in this situation. The Poles would know that German rearmament would eventually mean the destruction of their country. They might intervene quickly and unilaterally. At the same time, I can't see the likes of France, England, and Poland keeping the Germans down in the long term.
Two nightmare scenarios:
- A World War II that was delayed long enough that when it did come it ended with two or more combatants using nukes.
- A World War II that came earlier, before tanks and trucks were reliable enough to pull off quick advances. Europe could not have survived another World War I style war of attrition and remained civilized.
 
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Pretty simple, have Scheidemann defeat Ebert in the internal SPD discussion, wether the Social Democtrats should support the Treaty of Versailles.
With the SPD against it, it would have died.
Since it is an internal party decision Ebert would have backed it without loosing face (the public might never know that he was for it) and stayed president.
They wouldn't have resumed the fight, they hardly had troups, but had the allies really the will and manpower of occupiing the whole of Germany.


Even better is, if Ebert resign with Scheidemann, and every new Government will resign the moment it is asked to sign the treaty.

Once the soviet army reaches the Vistula, France and England will make a better offer.

When does the Soviet army reach the Vistula? August 1920, as in OTL? Do you really think the Germans will be able to hold out under such pressure, with children starving by the thousand, for more than a year?
 

Vault-Scope

Banned
Tanks where still relatively new and short range in 1919, hardly several thousands.
Airforce in WW1 was quiet unlike WW2. Versaille treat forced Germans to burn down +15000 fighters so without it, allied air advantage would not be that big.
Allied advance in the west would be rather slow.

The bolcheviks and other "democrats" had already stabbed German war effort in the back once, they would certainly start again.
So by 1920, allies are inside Germany which faces major communist revolts, polish nationalists have been crushed and the red army from the east sweeps in.
Red army joins bolchevik insurrection in Vienna, Prague, Berlin.
Allies occupies western part of Germany but faces guerilla warfare on a massive squale, revolts begin to grow in London and Paris. In the USA itself, there is growing agitation even thought it is on a limited scale.
Allies encircles Berlin, red army wont surrender, brutal street battles occures as forces around Berlin are harassed.
Still in early 1921 red army guerilla continues, battles for Prague and Vienna are even worst. Paris and London faces increased riots.
Then the French governement makes a really bad mistake, securing Germany is not enought, they decide to secure Poland and Hungary too.
Even greater troubles errupts in Paris, police then armies fires into crowds, the entire city rises in revolt. L´Elyssé, central governement in Paris is stormed by angry mobes. A new governement is declared, insurrections engulf other major cities, France sinks rapidly into chaos.
The US and britain decides to intervene, the intervention is brutal. Masse-desertion begin in the French armies, entire divisons are defecting to the bolcheviks.
London and Washington decides to disarme the French army, which they consider unreliable. French armies refuses and the US decides to disarme them by force, that decision doesn´t go as well as planned.
Fighting escalates into open warfare, red army joins the frenchs in an all-out offensive, German people rose in revolts against the occupiers.
British and US forces attempts alliances with nationalist groups, too few of them accept hovewer, the GB-US forces are defeated.
In London itself, major revolts occures but are brutally crushed. All movements anywhere leftwing are stamped down. It takes some time before the british governement realise that it have repeated the same mistakes as in Irlande....
1922: Read army spreads to France & Italy, revolts start in all major british cities, these revolts are quickly crushed but average britons refuses to support the war any longer. Armed anti-bolchevik milices enstores a reign of terror, last vestiges of civil governement is overthrowed, a military junta comes to power.
1923: Populations in the USA have grown tired of the war in Europe, US governement is not keen in repeating events in Britain.
The military governor of Scotland althought english himself declares secession from Britain and gain massive support in the USA when he exposes the atrocities of the new brtish governement.
what remain of the Hunta retreates from continental europe to secure power at home.
The US and britain still agrees on a politic of containement with the help of Japan, Turkey, Spain, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, China, Iran.
 
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