Paris Commune of 1871 Survives

Ok. Let's assume that the Paris Commune of 1871 survives. The Communards maintain control of the city (possibly by the help of similar revolts in Orleans, Lyons, or Marseilles) long enough to begin expansion and eventual control of most, if not all, of France. By the turn of the century, how does this affect Europe and the world?

Obviously, France is a major center and would probably undergo more international political strife than the RSFSR did between 1917 and 1921. Germany would undoubtedly try to use the ensuing civil war in France (let's say fighting last until about 1880 or even 1890, depending on what happens) to gain territory and expand while Britain goes about and gobbles up the French colonies. By the time the Communard government is firmly entrenched in Paris, a whole new order would have to be established. Probably France would be in a constant state of war with her neighbors, or even industrial violence in Britain, Ireland, Germany, and Spain would lead to similar revolts abroad that would act as a buffer against France's enemies. In any event, the major change would be the center of the Communist International. Obviously, Lenin and the Bolsheviks in Russia would never be able to claim a seat of power so long as Paris stood with the red flag. Even if this more successful commune collapses by 1917, without linking the Bolshevik party in some way to the policies of the Communards, the Bolsheviks would have little to no success.

How else might this play out?
 
Why, exactly?
For one thing, it was just Paris and none of the surrounding countryside, thus food would quickly become scarce if the commune was surrounded. The French army was nearby, and damned if Bismark would let France turn all Socialist on his watch without an attempt to restore decency. Even if the army fell in line with the Socialists instead of crushing them, Prussia would still intervene.

And this wasn't much after the Franco-Prussian war, so the Prussian forces would be on top of their game.
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
For one thing, it was just Paris and none of the surrounding countryside, thus food would quickly become scarce in the commune was surrounded. The French army was nearby, and damned if Bismark would let France turn all Socialist on his watch without an attempt to restore decency. Even if the army fell in line with the Socialists instead of crushing them, Prussia would still intervene.

And this wasn't much after the Franco-Prussian war, so the Prussian forces would be on top of their game.​


Agreed. Without ASB intervention, there is no way for the Paris Commune to survive. Even if the French army doesn't stomp them into dust, and then even if the Prussian army doesn't intervene and stomp them into dust, the various elements within the Commune would soon turn on each other and bring the whole thing down in a bloody mess.
 
If some particularly revolutionary Communards seize members of the provisional government before they flee Paris (I'm thinking Adolphe Theirs among others), then its possible that the provisional government would be in enough disarray that the Paris Commune could provoke sympathizers to rise in other cities.

Many troops who were in Paris went over to the Commune en masse, and I think that if the Commune had more communication with the rest of the country, it might have been able to provoke a larger republican rising across the country. The monarchist majority that was elected to run the provisional government was not acceptable to even many moderate republicans (there were moderate republicans who participated in the Commune). Other urban rising would sap resources from the provisional government, and possibily provoke a German intervention.

A German intervention might actually be a godsend for the Communards. The Germans intervening against the Communards would make the provisional government look like German puppets, while the Communards who die become nationalist martyrs. Any Communards who make it out of the city might be able to raise the country against the (German-puppet, monarchist) provisional government.

So capturing provisional government members (including Theirs), which allows other French urban risings, and a German intervention, could work together to legitimize the republican Communards as the people fighting for France. The surviving Communards get to the other rebelling cities, many troops refuse to follow the orders of the "Prussian Puppets" of Versailles, and we have a France ready to lurch into monarchist-republican civil war.

Except that the Communards have nationalist martyrs (complete with ACTUAL bloody shirts) and the monarchists have fueding royal claimants.
 

Typo

Banned
The problem with the Paris commune was that it was one city against the rest of Europe, even if some other major cities revolt, it was going to be put down ruthlessly, if not by the French than the Germans.

France after 1866 was eclipsed from first rate power status. It cannot fend off it's neighbours like it did centuries ago.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
For several reasons already mentioned it was doomed to fail, acctually the same reasons the Spartacists were doomed to fail much later. One city, with a conservative hostile countryside and too few armed troops to even try to make a stand.
 
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