Let me lay out the parameters of this scenario, Mary I of England has a son with Phillip of Spain ca. 1556 (we'll call him Henry) and she lives a few years longer, dying in around 1567 or so. Many of the reformation policies are reversed and the Catholic succession is secured. Following the death of Francis II, the Catholic Monarchs secure a betrothal, in 1561, between the five year old Henry and the nineteen year old Queen of Scots, Mary.
Henry von Habsburg ascends to the Throne in that year as King Henry IX and, in his minority, he has a series of strong Catholic regents under the foreign influence of Phillip, who is no longer King (per the terms of his marriage to Mary) but nonetheless exerts influence. Phillip, as per OTL, becomes King of Portugal in 1581. As per OTL, Don Carlos (his first son) dies in 1568. Since the POD is in 1556, all of Phillips's subsequent children are butterflied but we can assume a similar situation whereby he has another three sons who both die young (as opposed to the two IOTL; Phillip III lived) and then two daughters, only one of which lives until 1598. We can call her Isabella to mirror her OTL character for simplicity's sake. At this time, she's unmarried.
Under the terms of the marriage, King Henry IX of England, Ireland, and Scotland (Jure uxoris) stands to inherit the entire low countries. This will presume the butterflying of the 80-years war, as an England actively hostile to the Dutch rebellion will potentially doom the whole exercise.
The terms also stated that "if Prince Charles died without issue, the eldest son or daughter of Phillip and Mary should succeed, as well to Spain and Italy, as the other Dominions" (source).
This lines up perfectly to what would almost certainly be the most controversial incident in European history to that time; Henry would stand to inherit, by the terms of his parents marriage terms, the entire Spanish Inheritance, ruling a massive empire spanning from India to nearly all of the Americas to the entirety of the British Isles, all of Iberia, all of the Netherlands, etc. This would almost certainly not go over internationally (France will be howling) but also domestically as I'm sure many powerful forces in Iberia would prefer the young eligible bachelorette Isabella (whom they could more likely control). The Portuguese may additionally view this as an opportunity to exit.
Spain's domains to that point were not governed by Salic law - presumably Phillip may try to impose it to avoid the succession war, but it may not take. I presume the Netherlands (by merit of the fact that Mary of Burgundy inherited them) are not governed by total Salic law, and in any case Henry's claim to them is rock solid as it comes and he will probably end up with them or part of them following a conflict barring some disaster .
It's fair to assume that the 42-year old Henry will try to push his claim. I would assume France would support Isabella. Where would the Emperor (a Habsburg, though probably not thrilled about the union) stand? Rudolf II (b. 1552) was famously unmarried and perhaps marrying his cousin so as to reunite his great uncle's patrimony or pass it off to a second son provided he has one.
Who else arrays where? Do I have my general understanding of how things would unfold correctly?
Henry von Habsburg ascends to the Throne in that year as King Henry IX and, in his minority, he has a series of strong Catholic regents under the foreign influence of Phillip, who is no longer King (per the terms of his marriage to Mary) but nonetheless exerts influence. Phillip, as per OTL, becomes King of Portugal in 1581. As per OTL, Don Carlos (his first son) dies in 1568. Since the POD is in 1556, all of Phillips's subsequent children are butterflied but we can assume a similar situation whereby he has another three sons who both die young (as opposed to the two IOTL; Phillip III lived) and then two daughters, only one of which lives until 1598. We can call her Isabella to mirror her OTL character for simplicity's sake. At this time, she's unmarried.
Under the terms of the marriage, King Henry IX of England, Ireland, and Scotland (Jure uxoris) stands to inherit the entire low countries. This will presume the butterflying of the 80-years war, as an England actively hostile to the Dutch rebellion will potentially doom the whole exercise.
The terms also stated that "if Prince Charles died without issue, the eldest son or daughter of Phillip and Mary should succeed, as well to Spain and Italy, as the other Dominions" (source).
This lines up perfectly to what would almost certainly be the most controversial incident in European history to that time; Henry would stand to inherit, by the terms of his parents marriage terms, the entire Spanish Inheritance, ruling a massive empire spanning from India to nearly all of the Americas to the entirety of the British Isles, all of Iberia, all of the Netherlands, etc. This would almost certainly not go over internationally (France will be howling) but also domestically as I'm sure many powerful forces in Iberia would prefer the young eligible bachelorette Isabella (whom they could more likely control). The Portuguese may additionally view this as an opportunity to exit.
Spain's domains to that point were not governed by Salic law - presumably Phillip may try to impose it to avoid the succession war, but it may not take. I presume the Netherlands (by merit of the fact that Mary of Burgundy inherited them) are not governed by total Salic law, and in any case Henry's claim to them is rock solid as it comes and he will probably end up with them or part of them following a conflict barring some disaster .
It's fair to assume that the 42-year old Henry will try to push his claim. I would assume France would support Isabella. Where would the Emperor (a Habsburg, though probably not thrilled about the union) stand? Rudolf II (b. 1552) was famously unmarried and perhaps marrying his cousin so as to reunite his great uncle's patrimony or pass it off to a second son provided he has one.
Who else arrays where? Do I have my general understanding of how things would unfold correctly?
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