The idea of this TL is to parallel the development of the USA along the lines of Germany, since it occurs to me that, had things happened a bit differently, the various pressures and situations that led to the establishment of the various incarnations of the German nation could be replicated on the American continent. Do I think this is a likely TL? No. Do I think it's plausible? Maybe. As it stands, it's more of a thought experiment than a serious attempt at a timeline. I will focus almost exclusively on the USA; you may assume that the other countries are doing whatever would be necessary of them to make the TL plausible. In addition, there are probably some details regarding important events like riots and such that I should have included to make things plausible, but didn't think to.
The main POD I'm thinking of is in the Articles of Confederation. They're a bit better; not much, but enough that the Founding Fathers think they can work with it; perhaps some of the brighter ones passed away beforehand. In any case, it fails and the USA dissolves in all but name after a few decades. This may require a POD going back to the Seven Years' War.
My thoughts so far:
- Manifest Destiny materializes much later than OTL; as a result, California is successfully settled by Mexico and the balance of power between the US, Canada, and Mexico becomes less skewed.
- Tying into the previous point, Mexico (either as a republic or a monarchy) is more stable than in OTL from the beginning.
- American unification happens in 1871 under a republican dictatorship-style government, proclaiming the nation as the American Empire.
- Irish emigrate mainly to Canada, while Italians emigrate mainly to Mexico and Argentina. The American economy, while robust, does not boom quite like it did in OTL
- Slavery is abolished by 1890, not with a bang, but with a whimper; blacks are still virtually second-class citizens, even in states where they are the majority.
At this point the timeline more closely resembles Germany. I have two possibilities regarding how a parallel could play out, and I'm not certain which is more plausible:
OPTION 1:
- Following the Louisiana Purchase, the French majority in Baton Rouge and New Orleans opt to secede rather than join the union, due to a closer relation with Mexico. The francophone nation of Bas-Louisiane (English: South Louisiana), consisting mostly of swampland, is nevertheless prosperous.
- The US and Mexico end up on opposite sides during the first World War. The US seeks to acquire primarily English-speaking Tejas from Mexico. Rather than go through the heavily-fortified Arkansas border to attack Mexico, they invade and annex South Louisiana instead. The swamps cause more problems than solutions, however, and a trench war along the Tejas border develops.
- The US loses the war. In a humiliating peace, Britain adds New England to the Dominion of Canada. The President-for-Life/Lord-Protector/American Caesar/whatever is replaced by a parliament.
- During the interwar, reparations to Mexico take their toll and a depression causes hyperinflation. Paramilitary groups spring up and one Adam Hiller, a Canadian of Virginian descent who fought for the US in Louisiana, leads the American National Socialist Party, or ANSOP, to control the nation in 1933, founding the Second American Empire.
- After demanding newly-independent Canada to return the Free City of Boston to American control and being refused, the Second American Empire invades Canada, entering (or possibly causing) World War 2. They then invade Mexico and South Louisiana.
OPTION 2:
- Following the failure of the Articles of Confederation, the New England states form their own country and secede from the US, which is still in turmoil.
- The US and Britain end up on opposite sides during the first World War. During the war, the US invades New England in a bid to invade Canada. What results is a trench war along the St. Lawrence river.
- The US loses and the President-for-Life/Lord Protector/American Caesar/whatever is replaced by an elected parliament.
- A global depression caused by a financial collapse abroad causes hyperinflation in American states. Adam Hiller, a Canadian of Virginian descent who fought for the US in Quebec, leads the American National Socialist Party, or ANSOP, to control the nation in 1933, founding the Second American Empire. After demanding that Mexico cede New Orleans, the AE invades. Britain declares war in retaliation, and the US turns around and invades Canada.
During World War II, american blacks and Indians are persecuted and murdered by the thousands in concentration camps under a "national cleansing" program; the ANSOP justifies the program by arguing that those of African descent undermine national unity by stirring up racial tensions and thereby have caused the loss in World War 1, and that they seek to outbreed white Americans as part of a larger communal plan to usurp the nation and establish an African homeland in America.
The US eventually loses. All of its territories west of the Mississippi are partitioned. The northern portion of the territory is given independence as Lakota, and the English-speaking settlers are forcibly expelled back to US states. Primarily English-speaking Louisiana is either given independence or ceded to Mexico, and much of New England is granted independence or annexed into Canada. Most of the black population moves to Liberia, which becomes prosperous thanks to Mexican, Canadian, and European investment.
During the war, communist south American countries such as Cuba, Colombia, and/or Venezuela occupy Florida, West Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Under Soviet guidance, they set up a communist government, the American Democratic Republic, which is kept separate from the Federal Republic of America. The two nations would reunite in 1989.
All right, that's the idea, what do you all think?