Paper Doves in Flight: Poland & The World After Communism
- Thread starter Heat
- Start date
John Oliver called him the Polish Six Flags guy. Which about sums it up, really.
The Olszewski Government
With the election having no clear winner, President Walesa took it upon himself to jump-start government formation. His initial proposal, made to the Democratic Union's most respected figure, left-leaning intellectual Jacek Kuron, involved Walesa himself becoming Prime Minister. When it turned out that this questionably constitutional idea had absolutely no support in the Sejm, Walesa changed tack and proposed a broad coalition of post-Solidarity parties centred around the Democrats, the Liberal Democratic Congress and the Centre Alliance, with Mazowiecki's successor as Prime Minister, the Liberal Democrat Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, staying on as PM. While the Democrats and the Congress were open to this idea, the Centre rejected it, as its leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski had already begun his own efforts to form a government, with Jan Olszewski, noted conservative opposition activist and attorney, as its head.
All efforts to form a government were hampered by the isolation of the two largest parties, the Democratic Union and the Democratic Left Alliance. While the Democrats were merely mistrusted due to their role in the break-up of Solidarity and their 'soft' stance on decommunisation, the Democratic Left was actively hated, to the point where many MPs refused even to sit next to them on the Sejm benches. (The People's Party's leader, Waldemar Pawlak, and the Socialist leader Piotr Ikonowicz eventually persuaded their MPs to grudgingly do so.)
In the end, Kaczynski managed to bring together six parties - his own Centre Alliance, the nationalist, Pilsudski-ite Confederation for an Independent Poland, the Christian National Union, the Liberal Democrats, the Peasants' Agreement and the Real Politics Union - in support of Olszewski. "The Six", as they became known, were able to choose Christian Nationalist leader Wieslaw Chrzanowski as Marshal of the Sejm, and members of their parties as Vice-Marshals and heads of the major parliamentary committees, compounding the isolation of the Democrats and the Democratic Left.
Despite Walesa's best efforts to keep Bielecki, who he believed he could influence, in his post, the Sejm approved Olszewski's candidacy as Prime Minister on December 5. Apart from the Six, he was also supported by Krzaklewski's rump Solidarity (which had pledged during the election campaign to not enter any government), the two small Christian Democratic parties and, surprisingly, the Socialists, who were encouraged by Olszewski's pledges to move away from Balcerowicz's economic policies and fight back against ex-communist influence in politics and business. Walesa officially designated Olszewski as formateur on December 5, even though he privately hoped that the right-winger would fail and clear the way for another Walesa-approved candidate. But despite the walkout of the Liberal Democrats (who disapproved of Olszewski's proposed economic policies, and were egged on by Walesa who wished to sabotage the negotiations), Olszewski finally managed to put together a government including the Centre, the Confederation, the Christian Nationalists, the Peasants' Agreement, the Real Politics Union and the Party of Christian Democrats, and supported by the People's Party, Solidarity, the Christian Democracy coalition, and the Socialist Party.
After narrowly winning a confidence vote in the Sejm on December 19, almost two months after the election, Olszewski proudly announced his government's priorities - a final reckoning with the Communist past, moving away from the liberal economic policies of the Mazowiecki and Bielecki cabinets, reforming the armed forces, the police, and the secret services, and improving relations between the state and the Catholic Church. However, it escaped no one's notice that the six parties included in the government had only 181 MPs between them, far from a majority, leaving the government dependent on external support.
As Poland entered the New Year, one question was on everyone's mind: how long could the government last?
All efforts to form a government were hampered by the isolation of the two largest parties, the Democratic Union and the Democratic Left Alliance. While the Democrats were merely mistrusted due to their role in the break-up of Solidarity and their 'soft' stance on decommunisation, the Democratic Left was actively hated, to the point where many MPs refused even to sit next to them on the Sejm benches. (The People's Party's leader, Waldemar Pawlak, and the Socialist leader Piotr Ikonowicz eventually persuaded their MPs to grudgingly do so.)
In the end, Kaczynski managed to bring together six parties - his own Centre Alliance, the nationalist, Pilsudski-ite Confederation for an Independent Poland, the Christian National Union, the Liberal Democrats, the Peasants' Agreement and the Real Politics Union - in support of Olszewski. "The Six", as they became known, were able to choose Christian Nationalist leader Wieslaw Chrzanowski as Marshal of the Sejm, and members of their parties as Vice-Marshals and heads of the major parliamentary committees, compounding the isolation of the Democrats and the Democratic Left.
Despite Walesa's best efforts to keep Bielecki, who he believed he could influence, in his post, the Sejm approved Olszewski's candidacy as Prime Minister on December 5. Apart from the Six, he was also supported by Krzaklewski's rump Solidarity (which had pledged during the election campaign to not enter any government), the two small Christian Democratic parties and, surprisingly, the Socialists, who were encouraged by Olszewski's pledges to move away from Balcerowicz's economic policies and fight back against ex-communist influence in politics and business. Walesa officially designated Olszewski as formateur on December 5, even though he privately hoped that the right-winger would fail and clear the way for another Walesa-approved candidate. But despite the walkout of the Liberal Democrats (who disapproved of Olszewski's proposed economic policies, and were egged on by Walesa who wished to sabotage the negotiations), Olszewski finally managed to put together a government including the Centre, the Confederation, the Christian Nationalists, the Peasants' Agreement, the Real Politics Union and the Party of Christian Democrats, and supported by the People's Party, Solidarity, the Christian Democracy coalition, and the Socialist Party.
After narrowly winning a confidence vote in the Sejm on December 19, almost two months after the election, Olszewski proudly announced his government's priorities - a final reckoning with the Communist past, moving away from the liberal economic policies of the Mazowiecki and Bielecki cabinets, reforming the armed forces, the police, and the secret services, and improving relations between the state and the Catholic Church. However, it escaped no one's notice that the six parties included in the government had only 181 MPs between them, far from a majority, leaving the government dependent on external support.
As Poland entered the New Year, one question was on everyone's mind: how long could the government last?
Last edited:
It was even worse in OTL, I've actually expanded Olszewski's base of support. Though since it's been expanded with the addition of the KPN and Korwin-Mikke's lot, easily the most extreme and cantankerous parties in the Sejm, that doesn't mean it'll be any more stable than OTL.
As someone with friends in Poland as well as having a considerable interest in Polish politics, I love it that someone is doing a Polish wikibox TL. You have my interest.
One day, Poland will be stronk again.
One day, Poland will be stronk again.
Oh lord...
I have to say, the more I learn about the history of Poland since the end of Communism, the more I think things had the potential to be better for the country.
fasquardon
Yep. The original Olszewski government was a four-party coalition with just under 25% of the seats.
I didn't mention that it was messed up even further due to a split in the Peasants' Agreement, which I've butterflied here.
You'd have needed different people in charge, and/or a different global political zeitgeist altogether. I've toyed with the idea of avoiding Reagan and Thatcher and thus bringing about a different sort of economic transformation whenever Communism falls, more oriented towards Scandinavian-style social democracy than neoliberalism. The Swedish model was looked into by the Communists and by Solidarity, but in the end, it was 1989 and neoliberalism was seen as The Way Forward. It would have been different, at least.
Last edited:
Hm. I have to say, I've never considered the implications of Social Democracy catching on in post-Communist Europe before.
It is an interesting thought.
fasquardon
The idea had very strong currency among the PZPR and Solidarity elites. Many believed that countries coming out of communism would naturally be better-suited to a social democratic economic model than a pure liberal one. There was a report written in the late 80s in which a group of PZPR economists looked into the Swedish model and whether it would be possible to adapt it to Polish conditions. The conclusions of the Round Table talks still paid some lip service to the report, but by that time the former advocates of social democracy had mostly been converted to neoliberalism and there was no political will to implement it. Of course, since this is Poland we're talking about, there's no guarantee that it would be adapted competently.
I'm surprised that there aren't more Polish TLs around, to be honest. There's potential, and it's not like we, as a country, are short on people who'd love to see a good Poland-wank. (in b4 someone links The Polish Wars)
I'd enjoy reading a TL where Interwar Poland gives Nazi Germany and/or the Soviet Union a bloody nose, and forces them to fuck off.
That'd be, unfortunately, an ASB TL. IIRC from discussions on DWS board, with the same armanents as OTL it's possible to lengthen 1939 campaign from 1 to 3 months IATL.
But back to 1990s - will Macierewicz will make his list ITTL?
I don't think I'm really spoiling anything by saying that Macierewicz gonna Macierewicz.
That said, with both Moczulski and Korwin in the government, the list crisis will go quite differently than IOTL. But you'll have to wait to find out, the next update will be an international one.
U.S. 1992 Presidential Election
As American politicians geared up for the 1992 election, President Bush seemed unstoppable. Thanks to the success of the Gulf War, his approval rating had risen as high as 89%, leading most of the Democratic bench, such as New York Governor Mario Cuomo, New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, or West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller to simply write off the election as unwinnable for the Democrats. In the end, six men would run in the Democratic primary: Tennessee Senator Al Gore (whose entry into the race led Bill Clinton to abandon his plans to run, believing he wouldn't get far with another, much better-known Southerner running), former Massachussetts Senator Paul Tsongas, former California Governor Jerry Brown, Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa. Meanwhile, the billionaire Ross Perot had decided to run as an independent, on a platform emphasising balanced budgets, protectionism, term limits or members of Congress, and direct democracy. His candidacy attracted many anti-establishment voters, and he in fact briefly led the polls, with Bush in second place and any potential Democratic nominee in third.
The Democratic primaries finally began on February 10, 1992 with the Iowa caucuses, which were unsurprisingly won by favourite son Harkin, followed by the New Hampshire primary where Tsongas won, with Gore in second-place and Harkin in a surprising third. Brown's quixotic populist campaign was buoyed by a victory in Maine, while liberal firebrand Harkin narrowly beat out Bob Kerrey in South Dakota, contributing to his exit from the race a few weeks later. The primary soon turned into a race between Gore and Tsongas, with Harkin and Brown nipping at their heels. In the end, Gore won out and became the nominee, picking Kerrey as his running mate.
With Bush's approval ratings dropping due to the economy slowing and dissatisfaction with Bush breaking his famous 'no new taxes' pledge, Gore took the lead in the polls by a wide margin, especially after Perot briefly dropped out citing a supposed conspiracy by the Republican campaign to sabotage his daughter's wedding as his reason. His lead narrowed as the campaign progressed and it became abundantly clear that the Democratic ticket was not really exciting the public. Neither Gore nor Kerrey was particularly charismatic, and they failed to excite the liberal base as well as the Southern whites Gore had claimed he could bring back into the Democratic fold. Bush attacked Gore for his environmentalism, mocking him as 'Mr. Ozone' and claiming his policies would hurt industrial states. Gore's lead narrowed even further when Perot returned to the race in October, participating in a series of televised debates against Bush and Gore. The debates helped Perot massively, as he was seen to have put in a much better performance than Bush or the uncharismatic Gore, and he was soon polling above 15% again.
In spite of all this, Gore still held a narrow lead and seemed set for victory, until in mid-October The New York Times Magazine published an article on an incident that occurred during Kerrey's service in Vietnam. The article claimed that, during a raid on a Vietnamese village where a Viet Cong leader was said to be hiding, the unit Kerrey lead had unwittingly killed women and children. The controversy hurt the Democrats in the polls once more, leaving Gore and Bush effectively tied going into November with Perot at around 20%.
On Election Day, the Northeastern states of New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Connecticut all fell into the Bush column while Perot narrowly carried Maine, and Montana and Nevada were won by the Democrats by small margins, thanks to the Westerner Kerrey's presence on the ticket and Perot's huge popularity in the West hurting Bush. Gore's much vaunted Southern appeal was neutralised by his lack of charisma and only yielded the Democrats the border states of Kentucky and Missouri as well as Gore's home state of Tennessee, and the Republican attacks on Gore's environmentalist stances apparently struck a chord with enough voters to deliver the Rust Belt states of Ohio and Wisconsin to Bush by very small margins. In the end, while both major party candidates had solid reasons to consider themselves the winner of the election, only one of them actually had cause for celebration.
The Democratic primaries finally began on February 10, 1992 with the Iowa caucuses, which were unsurprisingly won by favourite son Harkin, followed by the New Hampshire primary where Tsongas won, with Gore in second-place and Harkin in a surprising third. Brown's quixotic populist campaign was buoyed by a victory in Maine, while liberal firebrand Harkin narrowly beat out Bob Kerrey in South Dakota, contributing to his exit from the race a few weeks later. The primary soon turned into a race between Gore and Tsongas, with Harkin and Brown nipping at their heels. In the end, Gore won out and became the nominee, picking Kerrey as his running mate.
With Bush's approval ratings dropping due to the economy slowing and dissatisfaction with Bush breaking his famous 'no new taxes' pledge, Gore took the lead in the polls by a wide margin, especially after Perot briefly dropped out citing a supposed conspiracy by the Republican campaign to sabotage his daughter's wedding as his reason. His lead narrowed as the campaign progressed and it became abundantly clear that the Democratic ticket was not really exciting the public. Neither Gore nor Kerrey was particularly charismatic, and they failed to excite the liberal base as well as the Southern whites Gore had claimed he could bring back into the Democratic fold. Bush attacked Gore for his environmentalism, mocking him as 'Mr. Ozone' and claiming his policies would hurt industrial states. Gore's lead narrowed even further when Perot returned to the race in October, participating in a series of televised debates against Bush and Gore. The debates helped Perot massively, as he was seen to have put in a much better performance than Bush or the uncharismatic Gore, and he was soon polling above 15% again.
In spite of all this, Gore still held a narrow lead and seemed set for victory, until in mid-October The New York Times Magazine published an article on an incident that occurred during Kerrey's service in Vietnam. The article claimed that, during a raid on a Vietnamese village where a Viet Cong leader was said to be hiding, the unit Kerrey lead had unwittingly killed women and children. The controversy hurt the Democrats in the polls once more, leaving Gore and Bush effectively tied going into November with Perot at around 20%.
On Election Day, the Northeastern states of New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Connecticut all fell into the Bush column while Perot narrowly carried Maine, and Montana and Nevada were won by the Democrats by small margins, thanks to the Westerner Kerrey's presence on the ticket and Perot's huge popularity in the West hurting Bush. Gore's much vaunted Southern appeal was neutralised by his lack of charisma and only yielded the Democrats the border states of Kentucky and Missouri as well as Gore's home state of Tennessee, and the Republican attacks on Gore's environmentalist stances apparently struck a chord with enough voters to deliver the Rust Belt states of Ohio and Wisconsin to Bush by very small margins. In the end, while both major party candidates had solid reasons to consider themselves the winner of the election, only one of them actually had cause for celebration.
Last edited:
I'm not sure I can see Gore running in `96, and defintley not Kerrey after the Times article. Quayle, I assume, is the presumptive nominee for the next election
Quayle certainly thinks he's the presumptive nominee, whether he actually is remains to be seen. There are plenty of Republicans who will not want him as their candidate. And I'll say this for the Democrats: the '96 nominee is mentioned in the update.