Paper Doves in Flight: Poland & The World After Communism

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It looks like the same man slowly getting younger.
 
Bulgaria 1991-1995
One of the darker legacies of communism in Bulgaria was the Revival Process - a campaign to forcibly assimilate the country's Turkish minority. During the Process, Bulgarian Turks were forced to change their Turkish names to Bulgarian-sounding ones, the public use of the Turkish language was strongly discouraged, and Islamic and Turkish cultural traditions were officially suppressed. After democratisation, these policies were rolled back, largely under the influence of the Turkish-minority political party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. In turn, however, this met with a backlash from many Bulgarians, especially nationalists and former Communist Party officials in provincial cities who were afraid of losing property seized from Bulgarian Turks fleeing the country during the assimilation campaign and/or being held responsible for their crimes. This manifested itself in the addition of article 11.4 to the new Bulgarian Constitution, which prohibited political parties constituted 'on ethnic, racial or religious lines', and in an upswing of support for the self-described 'patriotic left-wing' nationalist Patriotic Labour Party (OPT).

Ethnic tensions came to a head in September 1991, when following a complaint by a group of nationalist activists, the Sofia City Court banned the Movement for Rights and Freedoms from running in the coming October parliamentary elections on the grounds that it violated article 11.4 of the Constitution. The decision caused immediate controversy, especially in the Turk-heavy northeast of the country where ethnic tensions had been running high as a result of Turkish activists campaigning for Turkish-language education in schools and Bulgarian nationalist activists (represented by the Committee for the Defence of National Interests, a front for the Patriotic Labour Party) strongly protesting any official attempts to accommodate the Turkish minority.

In late September, a violent altercation occurred in the city of Razgrad between a group of Turkish activists leading a protest against the banning of the Movement and a group of Bulgarian nationalists gloating about the same. Several of the nationalists were wounded, and in retaliation a larger group of nationalists attacked the homes of several known Turks and desecrated a Razgrad mosque. The escalating violence soon led to a series of ethnic riots across Razgrad Province, as nationalists attacked and, in some cases looted Turkish homes and Turkish activists struck back by attacking nationalist marches. All the while, the violence was fomented by Patriotic Labour leader, Mincho Minchev, who held several rallies in Razgrad at the same time.

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The riots electrified Bulgarian public opinion, especially with elections so close. The post-communist Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) sought to capitalise on rising nationalist sentiment in the wake of the riots, as did (obviously) the Patriotic Labour Party. While the anti-communist opposition alliance, the Union of Democratic Forces (ODS) had been predicted to win the election, the polls soon began to show a surge in support for both the Socialists and Patriotic Labour. In the end, on 13 October, the Socialists won by a surprisingly large margin, while Patriotic Labour came a just as surprisingly strong third. Two other formations made it into the National Assembly - the Democratic Coalition (DK), a centre-left alliance lead by famous anti-communist activist (and Social Democratic leader) Petar Dertliev including the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, the Liberal Party and the Ekoglasnost movement, all of which were members of the Union of Democratic Forces but left over the course of 1991 due to the Union's increasing domination by its right-wing, monarchist wing, and the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union (BZNS), a merger of two agrarian parties of the same name (one post-communist, one anti-communist) brought together by emigré activist Tsenko Barev. The Socialist Party and the Patriotic Labour Party soon formed a coalition government under Socialist leader Aleksandar Lilov.

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The Socialist government pursued only very limited market reform, putting off restructuring and pouring public money into state-owned enterprises, which increased production and, at least temporarily, kept living standards afloat. At the same time, 'nomenklatura privatisation', under which the former nomenklatura were allowed to take over and asset-strip Bulgarian state-owned enterprises, was allowed and essentially encouraged under Lilov. At the same time, egged on by the Patriotic Labourites and increasingly by their own base, the government pursued strongly anti-Turkish policies. Turkish-language education was once again ended, despite complaints from Turkish activists and some of the opposition (particularly the Democratic Coalition) that this violated the Constitution. Officials began impeding the operation of ethnic Turkish organisations, and an indefinite moratorium was placed on restitution of property to Bulgarian Turks who had fled to Turkey during the 80s and had left property behind.

With the Union of Democratic Forces still tearing itself to bits with in-fighting, many hoped that President Zhelyu Zhelev (aligned with the Union) would provide a strong voice of opposition to the government. Zhelev had been elected by the Grand National Assembly in 1990, and the new Constitution mandated that he had to stand for election in 1992. While polls initially predicted that he would win the election in the first round, defeating the Socialist candidate, law professor Velko Valkanov. However, the fact that the government was still in its honeymoon period and the rise of sportsman-turned-actor-turned-populist politician George Ganchev, leader of the Business Bloc, as well as the Democratic Coalition's candidate, former Mayor of Sofia and Green Party leader Aleksandar Karachanov meant that Zhelev won the first round only narrowly, and due to a lower-than-expected turnout among younger, educated voters, lost the second round to Valkanov, consolidating the Socialists' power.

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As the economy slowed down and the appeal of nationalism began to fade, the Socialists began working to consolidate their grip on power. The National Assembly soon changed the electoral law to a mixed system, with half the seats elected by a proportional system and the other half elected through first-past-the-post, with the districts drawn in order to favour the Socialists. At the same time, the government took measures to limit the powers of mayors in urban areas which tended to favour the opposition. As the Electoral Commission was entirely appointed by the President, it too was essentially neutralised. Lilov's government resolved to hold on in the face of street protests organised by the opposition, betting on its loyal rural supporters - and its manipulation of the electoral system - to keep it in power.

In spite of the government's increasingly authoritarian tendencies, the Union of Democratic Forces still couldn't quite seem to get over its in-fighting, leading younger, educated Bulgarians to overlook it in favour of the Democratic Coalition, which rose high in the polls as a result of its spirited defence of the democratic system. Of course, with the new electoral system, a split opposition vote would only help the Socialists.

In the end, turnout fell sharply on election day, benefiting the government with its more consolidated and, as the opposition and international election observers would later claim, occasionally bought off rural base. This was largely down to a feeling of hopelessness among many opposition supporters, but it wasn't helped by suspiciously long queues in front of Sofia and Plovdiv polling stations which seemed suddenly much less numerous than four years earlier. As predicted, the Democratic Coalition rose sharply while the Union of Democratic Forces fell back, while the Patriotic Labour Party barely made it over the 4% threshold necessary to win proportional seats due to tactical voting in favour of the Socialists. The populist George Ganchev's Business Bloc also narrowly made it over the threshold, with Ganchev himself winning a single-member district over a Socialist candidate accused of links with organised crime. The Agrarian National Union under its new leader Anastasia Mozer actually increased its vote, but was still hurt by the new electoral system and lost half its seats. And, of course, even though the Socialists' vote share actually fell, they still managed to win a majority of the seats.

Prime Minister Aleksandar Lilov, who was seen as a reformer just five years earlier, now seemed poised to turn Bulgaria back into an authoritarian state after its ever-so-brief flirtation with liberal democracy.

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I started reading this some time ago, but I got distracted and then forgot. Your latest update gave me a notification, so I went back and binged the whole thing.

Great stuff. I can't say I have any grounding in the OTL subject matter (let alone the personalities involved), but this is an entertaining read even without any knowledge. It's hard not to love such wonderfully chaotic scenes. Keep up the good work!
 
U.S. 1998 Midterms
An American Interlude:

President Mario Cuomo entered office with an ambitious liberal agenda, the centrepiece of which would be a major programme of public investment in infrastructure, as advocated by his economic advisor Robert Reich. With a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a similarly large majority in the House, nothing seemed to stand in Cuomo's way.

Nothing except, of course, his fellow Democrats. The massive congressional Democratic majorities existed partly thanks to Southern Democrats who tended to balk at government spending that wasn't directed to their districts. The investment plan soon ran into roadblock after roadblock in Congress, as Republicans and conservative Democrats questioned the need for increased investment in the first place and advocated that the administration continue President Bush's attempts to reduce the deficit instead. This led Alabama Senator Richard Shelby to defect to the Republicans, proclaiming that he could not work with such a liberal administration. What came out of Congress was still a major public works programme, but counterbalanced by deficit reduction measures and not quite as extensive as Cuomo and Reich had dreamed of. Other Cuomo priorities such as the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1997, making the tax code more progressive and an assault weapons ban passed more easily, but his push for health care reform was blocked by a coalition of Republicans and moderate-to-conservative Democrats. The Republicans denounced Cuomo's 'good old Democratic high-spending liberalism', giving them what they thought was a strong rallying cry ahead of the 1998 mid-term elections.

The Democrats' fears that the Republicans would take over the House were rather overblown - President Cuomo remained popular, the economy was performing rather well, the House map was heavily gerrymandered in the Democrats' favour and the Republican campaign was not really exciting anyone and seemed to lack coordination. The Chicago Sun-Times' October exposé accusing Minority Whip Dennis Hastert of sexual abuse blunted the Republicans' momentum even more.

In the end, the Republicans took 26 House seats from the Democrats, reducing their majority to its lowest level since 1980. The Senate was a similar story, as the Republicans won open seats in Colorado, Kentucky and Ohio and defeated vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Illinois (Carol Moseley-Braun) and Nevada (Harry Reid). The biggest upset of the night took place in Georgia, where former Republican Congressman Newt Gingrich defeated two-term Democratic senator Wyche Fowler after what commentators described as the most vicious, mud-slinging campaign of the year. However, the Democrats received a consolation prize when the open seat in Indiana was won in a landslide by former governor Evan Bayh. The Senate majority was simply too large, and Cuomo's popularity too high, for the Republicans to do more than chip away at it, preventing any major obstruction of the President's agenda.

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Good update.

Just wondering, how did D'Amato hang on?
A combination of Schumer staying out of the race (so America is thankfully spared the Senator from Wall Street), Ferraro running a poor campaign, D'Amato drowning her in cash and making just enough hay of his ability to bring pork back to NY and Cuomo not going after him the same way the Clintons did IOTL let him win by the seat of his pants.
 
U.S. Senators as of 1998
Composition of the United States Senate as of the 3rd of January, 1999

Alabama

3. Richard Shelby (R)
2. Jeff Sessions (R)


Alaska


2. Ted Stevens (R)
3. Frank Murkowski (R)

Arizona


3. John McCain (R)
1. Sam Coppersmith (D)


Arkansas

2. Winston Bryant (D)
3. Bill Clinton (D)


California


1. Dianne Feinstein (D)

3. Tom Campbell (R)

Colorado

2. Gale Norton (R)
3. Scott McInnis (R)


Connecticut

3. Chris Dodd (D)
1. Joe Lieberman (D)


Delaware

1. William Roth (R)
2. Joe Biden (D)

Florida

1. Connie Mack (R)
3. Bob Graham (D)

Georgia

2. Max Cleland (D)
3. Newt Gingrich (R)

Hawaii

1. Daniel Inouye (D)
3. Daniel Akaka (D)


Idaho

3. Larry Craig (R)
2. Mike Crapo (R)


Illinois

2. Dick Durbin (D)
3. Loleta Didrickson (R)

Indiana

1. Richard Lugar (R)
3. Evan Bayh (D)

Iowa

3. Chuck Grassley (R)
2. Tom Harkin (D)

Kansas

2. Pat Roberts (R)
3. Sheila Frahm (R)


Kentucky

2. Mitch McConnell (R)
3. Jim Bunning (R)


Louisiana

3. John Breaux (D)
2. Mitch Landrieu (D)


Maine

1. Olympia Snowe (R)
2. Joseph Brennan (D)


Maryland

1. Paul Sarbanes (D)
3. Barbara Mikulski (D)

Massachusetts

1. Ted Kennedy (D)
2. John Kerry (D)


Michigan

2. Carl Levin (D)
1. Bob Carr (D)


Minnesota

2. Paul Wellstone (D)
1. Ann Wynia (D)


Mississippi

2. Thad Cochran (R)

1. Trent Lott (R)

Missouri

3. Kit Bond (R)

1. John Ashcroft (R)

Montana

2. Max Baucus (D)
1. Conrad Burns (R)


Nebraska

2. Bob Kerrey (D)
1. Chuck Hagel (R)


Nevada

1. Richard Bryan (D)
3. John Ensign (R)


New Hampshire

2. Bob Smith (R)

3. Judd Gregg (R)

New Jersey

2. Robert Torricelli (D)
1. Frank Lautenberg (D)


New Mexico

2. Pete Domenici (R)

1. Jeff Bingaman (D)

New York

1. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D)
3. Al D'Amato (R)


North Carolina

3. Lauch Faircloth (R)

2. Charlie Sanders (D)

North Dakota

1. Kent Conrad (D)
3. Byron Dorgan (D)


Ohio

1. Mary Boyle (D)
3. George Voinovich (R)

Oklahoma

3. Don Nickles (R)

2. Jim Inhofe (R)

Oregon

3. Les AuCoin (D)
2. Harry Lonsdale (D)


Pennsylvania

3. Arlen Specter (R)

1. Harris Wofford (D)

Rhode Island

1. John Chafee (R)

2. Jack Reed (D)

South Carolina

2. Elliot Close (D)
3. Thomas Hartnett (R)


South Dakota

3. Tom Daschle (D)
2. Tim Johnson (D)


Tennessee

2. Jim Sasser (D)
1. Al Gore (D)


Texas

2. Phil Gramm (R)

1. Jack Fields (R)

Utah

1. Orrin Hatch (R)

3. Bob Bennett (R)

Vermont

3. Patrick Leahy (D)
1. Douglas Costle (D)


Virginia

1. Chuck Robb (D)
2. Mark Warner (D)

Washington

1. Patty Murray (D)
3. Ron Sims (D)


West Virginia

1. Robert Byrd (D)
2. Jay Rockefeller (D)


Wisconsin

1. Herb Kohl (D)
3. Mark Neumann (R)


Wyoming

1. Craig Thomas (R)

2. Dick Cheney (R)
 
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