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In OTL, the Panzer III was designed in the 1930s to be Germany's main "tank vs armored vehicle" (including other tanks) tank. It would fire high velocity AP shells and be the backbone of the Germany's tank forces.

Well, the original 37 mm cannon was kind of inadequate for the job, although pre-war testing showed it did fine against German tanks. A better gun was made in 1938, but most of the Panzer IIIs were still E and F variants with the weaker gun. The idea of the Panzer III being a main battle tank while firing shells that have less momentum (Mass times Velocity) than the Panzer IV's shells is a bit lost on me, but that was the plan.

In fact the Panzer 35(t) (A Czechoslovakian tank called LT vz 35) which was an older design with leaf spring suspension was used as a faster Panzer III substitute in Poland and France. Its structure could not be updated with the 5 cm KwK 38 like the Panzer III, but until then this older design as seen as good as the German Panzer III (which could be upgraded).

Suppose the Germans had some better engineers and made a Panzer III much like OTL T-34. It has the same diesel engine, suspension, and a 76 mm gun. The differences are markedly, increased interior space for ammunition, reduced hull armor and reduced fuel capacity. The turret armor is the same 52 mm on most sides but 30 mm on rear of turret, but superstructure armor is reduced to 30 mm, the frontal hull armor is reduced to 30 mm, side hull armor to 16 mm, and rear hull armor reduced to 19 mm. The reduced weight allows increased speed despite the same engine as OTL T-34 and both TTL Panzer III and the T-34 have same range at top speed (the T-34 having a bigger fuel tank, but heavier and worse mileage). Since the Panzer III is designed to fight other vehicles, it will not be provided with anything other than AP shells at the beginning of the war.

Since the German pre-war design includes lots of gasoline engines, they also develop something identical to OTL Panzer III. TTL Panzer IV is OTL Panzer III. TTL Panzer V is basically OTL Panzer IV.

I'm going to assume the invasion of Poland happens on schedule and isn't that different than OTL.

According to OTL, the Invasion of France proceeded with and "Of 2,574 tanks available for the campaign, no fewer than 523 were Panzer Is, while there were 627 Panzer IIIs and IVs, 955 Panzer II, 106 Czech Panzer 35(t), and 228 Panzer 38(t)"

Let's say at May 10, 1940 TTL, German has available 860 Panzer Is, 307 Panzer IIs, 387 "Panzer IIIs" (similar to OTL T-34 with modifications I mentioned), 129 "Panzer IVs" (OTL Panzer III), 280 "Panzer Vs" (OTL Panzer IV), 354 Panzer 35(t), 228 Panzer 38(t), and 154 other assorted armored vehicles.

Also available is 103 complete set of engine parts and suspension for the Panzer 35(t) (it's out of production at this point both OTL and TTL, so once spare parts are gone every trivial engine breakdown results in the tank only good for part cannibalization and OTL they no longer had a full set of engine parts). this leaves the "Panzer III" as the only armored fighting vehicle in the German arsenal using diesel engines. the Germans do not add their 4th creman to the Panzer 35 9t) like they did OTL.

I expect the Germans to beat France. Here, their armor is still outnumbered and outgunned. But France is still using OTL's Breda Variant of their Dyle plan where 7 divisions which could be used to counterattack after Sedan (they were to be put in reserve in the original Dyle plan) were instead busy running through Belgium trying to get to Breda.

Now the question is how history is changed from here.

One thing is that with improved tanks, the Germans might suffer fewer losses during the Battle of France. In OTL, most pitched engagements in the Low countries cost the Germans an amount of vehicles, but since the French were running towards Breda, a lot of them never actually saw any fighting until the German spearheads destroyed their supply lines by racing from Sedan to the Channel.

Minor fronts that might change are the Greek and North Africa campaigns. In OTL Greece, the British tank and portable anti-tank guns beat back the German attempts to attack fortified positions, forcing the Germans to resort to bypassing strongpoints (and I assume going off road must have messed up their timetables). Now with a higher quality "Panzer III," and less losses in the Belgium campaign, they might be able to... do better? I don't know? In OTL North Africa, the Matilda II proved its superiority over the Panzer III. In TTL, the "Panzer III" will be faster, outgun it, and have better mileage. However, I doubt better Panzers will butterfly away Germany's loss to the Royal navy in the Mediterranean...

Regardless of the changes that might happen in 1940, I assume Hitler is going to invade Soviet Union like OTL. A higher-quality Panzer III might change the 1942 campaign. OTL Panzer IIIs were simply outmatched by the T-34. TTL Panzer III could one-shot a T-34 even from the front at 1 km since both have the same 76 mm gun and same pre-war AP shell design.

Noticed I said same pre-war design? One thing I expect is that battlefield events might change the German tank development. Vehicular and armament development wouldn't stop just because the war started. Germany would continue trying to develop better gasoline-based vehicles like OTL. The Tiger I was a fearsome tank in combat in OTL... but it was too slow and broke down too easily. Might having a better Panzer III cause the German tank design to change? Would they put more effort into designs like the Panzer IV and Panther (which were practical) as opposed to super-heavy impractical designs?
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