Pan-Turkic revolution in Central Asia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Turkism

Is there any way that by the 1880s Pan-Turkism could've become so prominent in Central Asia that a mass uprising was undertaken by local Muslims against Russian govt forces & settlers, in a similar fashion to the 1916 Basmachi Revolt ? WI such an uprising was facilitated esp by certain elementsn in the Ottoman Empire ?
 
Is there any way that by the 1880s Pan-Turkism could've become so prominent in Central Asia that a mass uprising was undertaken by local Muslims against Russian govt forces & settlers, in a similar fashion to the 1916 Basmachi Revolt ?
IMHO it's ASB. Central Asian societies weren't developed enough to absorb ideas of any "-ism" outside of educated elites. Even good lod-fashioned Jihad had less influence over peoples' minds that local quarrels. However, if you want to write a TL, you must set a POD not later than Ivan the Terrible. Why so early? This is the time Russia (Muskovy back then) gained control over massive Muslim groups and started to develop rules to handle Muslim subjects. By 19th century is was a complex and generally working system of bribes to local religious and civic leaders. The only reason for Basmachi becoming region-wide phenomena (as opposed to few local gangs of bandits and raiders, preying mostly on local Muslims) was that Russian Empire tried "to jump too far in a single step", extending rights and responsibilities of Slavic Christian subjects on Muslim ones (rights have no meaning in Central Asian conditions and responsibilities were tough) and generally abandoned the system I was talking about before. Another POD should be earlier modernization of Central Asians (they were effectively medieval in 1880s).

WI such an uprising was facilitated esp by certain elementsn in the Ottoman Empire ?
Ottoman Empire didn't share a border with the region, so any support would be purely moral (counts for naught in this type of society, surprisingly materialistic in their views of suzerainity and vassalism)
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Turkism

Is there any way that by the 1880s Pan-Turkism could've become so prominent in Central Asia that a mass uprising was undertaken by local Muslims against Russian govt forces & settlers, in a similar fashion to the 1916 Basmachi Revolt ? WI such an uprising was facilitated esp by certain elementsn in the Ottoman Empire ?

Yes. In this era the region was more tied into world currents than some people might think - people's ideas are colored by the long Communist era. Back then, the languages were mutually comprehensible, also with Ottoman and Crimean.

The Ottomans did provide some small amount of material assistance to Yakub Beg even in Chinese Turkistan (albeit in the middle of a serious crisis at home, so not much), so it's clearly possible to provide assistance to the closer West Turkistan.

For this to occur, you would probably need an Ottoman victory in 1877-78. As it was, the difficulty of the Russian victory and the enormous cost with meager gains largely discredited the expansionist lobby - a loss in the war would have destroyed the Asiatic party. That would have made Russian expansion in Central Asia more difficult, and an Ottoman victory would have had a large impact on Central Asia.

On the other hand, an Ottoman victory would have had a large impact on the balance of power in Europe. The Ottomans might want to move closer to Russia after this, or perhaps the British would have a renewed interest in the Ottomans as the bulwark protecting the Med and Suez route.

In any case, any serious material support of Central Asia would require British cooperation. But small amounts of aid could go a long way - we saw this with the Basmachis, where Enver almost single-handedly provided them with the organization and impetus to win a lot of victories. In this era, expansion was largely driven by a small number of people on the ground in the region. Serious checks could cause reevaluation in St. Petersburg, and could lead to the British joining an effort to roll the Russians out of Central Asia.

This in turn would require some serious turmoil in Russia, which is a possibility. The Tsar personally led the later parts of the war against the Ottomans - a loss would be a huge blow to the prestige of the regime and could lead to revolutionary problems.

In short, it's possible, but I think a lot of things would have to go right. Also, while the linguistic affinities would definitely play an important role, the impetus for any movement in this era would be Islam, not Turkism.

Finally, the states of Bukhara and Khiva are problems, as they would strongly resist any such movements, but if anything started, they could be swept away.

In the TL I'm working on, the Ottomans do win, but I don't have it result in a pan-Islamic movement sweeping Central Asia. More likely in my view, this would increase Ottoman prestige in the Muslim world and lead to increased contacts throughout, enabling the Ottomans to build relationships that might bear fruit in later periods. It might allow a greater level of autonomy for Bukhara and Khiva. I don't really see the Ottomans taking any other course but supporting legitimate Islamic rulers, no matter how reactionary.
 
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