I note that the parallel but not identical pattern of your ATL means one Franklin Delano Roosevelt is at best an ATL cousin, a relative of the same name with a different appearance, biography and character, and it is only the quasi-aristocratic nature of his family that would make even that close a correspondence possible--men like Huey Long or Upton Sinclair are quite butterflied away though the parallelism of the TL which has called the Italian Fascists and German Nazis into being under another name has placed ATL men into the roles of Mussolini and Hitler. Is there an American analog to FDR then, and if so do you judge it taking parallelism too far for this one person to span the entire period from the debacle of the Depression to nearly witnessing victory in WWII?
Because of course the US stance on the fascist threat will depend in part on the opinion of the US President. It was a matter of chance I think we had a President who reacted to the rise of European fascism the way Roosevelt did OTL; any President who was half awake should have had some concern but it was not totally outside the spectrum of US respectability to offer a tolerant indulgence to the bombastic extremism overseas; men like Henry Ford or Charles Lindbergh OTL would be supporters of a President who regarded Mussolini and still more Hitler as legitimate and even good, certainly for their own country. Offering them active partnership and support would be quite a different matter; enough Americans were offended or threatened by fascism or anyway its peculiar choice of scapegoats to make a pro-Axis stand in the White House politically very risky, especially in the potentially volatile tendency to class warfare the Depression would indicate if not seen to be being dealt with handily. So much of OTL's characteristic American mood of the later '30s would hinge on the nature of the national response to the challenge of the Depression in the earlier thirties, so the relationship of Palmera to the USA is very dependent on how near or far the US course here is from OTL.
If we have an American top leadership that is both concerned about the rise of the Axis and feels threatened by it, if only because the Vultist movement seems liable to horn in on spheres of American ambition, I think it is conceivable that Cayton will find his play being backed to an increasing degree by very quiet but increasingly extensive support from the north. If our own Franklin Roosevelt were somehow ISOTed there as a President first elected in 1936, he would not of course be a firebrand on the subject of racial integration, but on the subject of a vigorous opposition to Craxi and Krieger, he would I think offer the Palmeys involved all manner of quiet US good offices, within the limits of plausible deniability anyway--because even if the USA does enjoy leadership with a visionary level of opposition to the European madness, the more reactionary sectors would have powerful allies in the Jim Crow South opposing the Palmeys as leading actors. If a person of Rooseveltian mind with a similar ruling coalition were elected or re-elected in 1940, and something as decisive and unifying US opinion as Pearl Harbor would happen, then once the USA declares war the Palmeys can expect the aid and support to become massive and open; American shipyards and aircraft works can be expected to supplement whatever level of key war materiel Palmera itself can churn out or purchase from British works with gifts of US models. To be sure the whole issue of managing relations with Palmera as a favored ally versus US white supremacists fearing the disruptive impact of good press for the nation of color will be something the US establishment is not willing to face by means of a mass repudiation of white supremacy.
I do think though that on the whole, versus OTL the stock of the Palmeys as a people will rise among many if not all white Americans and with them a notable improvement of the perception of the status and rights of African-Americans in the USA would also follow; US civil rights movements will be strengthened and the trend of public opinion more strongly against Jim Crow.
But it could be quite otherwise if US top leadership does not appreciate the importance of an early and strong, consistent stand against European fascism. A USA that reluctantly if at all fights the European axis under whatever name it adopts might find itself doubling down on Jim Crow, making the struggle appear weaker but also more existential.
Because of course the US stance on the fascist threat will depend in part on the opinion of the US President. It was a matter of chance I think we had a President who reacted to the rise of European fascism the way Roosevelt did OTL; any President who was half awake should have had some concern but it was not totally outside the spectrum of US respectability to offer a tolerant indulgence to the bombastic extremism overseas; men like Henry Ford or Charles Lindbergh OTL would be supporters of a President who regarded Mussolini and still more Hitler as legitimate and even good, certainly for their own country. Offering them active partnership and support would be quite a different matter; enough Americans were offended or threatened by fascism or anyway its peculiar choice of scapegoats to make a pro-Axis stand in the White House politically very risky, especially in the potentially volatile tendency to class warfare the Depression would indicate if not seen to be being dealt with handily. So much of OTL's characteristic American mood of the later '30s would hinge on the nature of the national response to the challenge of the Depression in the earlier thirties, so the relationship of Palmera to the USA is very dependent on how near or far the US course here is from OTL.
If we have an American top leadership that is both concerned about the rise of the Axis and feels threatened by it, if only because the Vultist movement seems liable to horn in on spheres of American ambition, I think it is conceivable that Cayton will find his play being backed to an increasing degree by very quiet but increasingly extensive support from the north. If our own Franklin Roosevelt were somehow ISOTed there as a President first elected in 1936, he would not of course be a firebrand on the subject of racial integration, but on the subject of a vigorous opposition to Craxi and Krieger, he would I think offer the Palmeys involved all manner of quiet US good offices, within the limits of plausible deniability anyway--because even if the USA does enjoy leadership with a visionary level of opposition to the European madness, the more reactionary sectors would have powerful allies in the Jim Crow South opposing the Palmeys as leading actors. If a person of Rooseveltian mind with a similar ruling coalition were elected or re-elected in 1940, and something as decisive and unifying US opinion as Pearl Harbor would happen, then once the USA declares war the Palmeys can expect the aid and support to become massive and open; American shipyards and aircraft works can be expected to supplement whatever level of key war materiel Palmera itself can churn out or purchase from British works with gifts of US models. To be sure the whole issue of managing relations with Palmera as a favored ally versus US white supremacists fearing the disruptive impact of good press for the nation of color will be something the US establishment is not willing to face by means of a mass repudiation of white supremacy.
I do think though that on the whole, versus OTL the stock of the Palmeys as a people will rise among many if not all white Americans and with them a notable improvement of the perception of the status and rights of African-Americans in the USA would also follow; US civil rights movements will be strengthened and the trend of public opinion more strongly against Jim Crow.
But it could be quite otherwise if US top leadership does not appreciate the importance of an early and strong, consistent stand against European fascism. A USA that reluctantly if at all fights the European axis under whatever name it adopts might find itself doubling down on Jim Crow, making the struggle appear weaker but also more existential.