Pakistani forces intercept the Navy SEALs during the bin Laden raid.

pnyckqx

Banned
What if the Pakistani forces intercepted the US Navy SEALs during Operation Neptune Spear? What if there was a firefight?

Describe how you think the Pakistanis would respond and in what force, how the firefight would go, who would win, and what the repercussions of a direct US-Pakistani clash are for both sides and the world?
Much of this is speculative due to the fact that very few people know the particulars of the SEAL operation that killed bin Laudin. Those particulars aren't going to become public information anytime soon if the US Special Operations Command has anything to say about it.

Basically, and only basically, the SEAL team in question prepared to apprehend or terminate the target. It is doubtful that they would have been prepared for a sustained fire fight with Pakistani Military, and it is something that would have been avoided at all cost.

In the event of such a fire fight, it is likely that the SEAL team would have hunkered down and waited for the 'Cavalry' to arrive in order to extract them. Again, i have no knowledge of the location, or local conditions at the time of the raid, and cannot intelligently discuss how successful the SEAL team would have been in evading capture.

It is likely that due to the proximity of US forces in Afghanistan and Air Support in that country, that rescue would have been fairly rapid given the ability of the SEAL team to communicate their situation to US Authorities.

More than likely, that assistance would have taken the form of US Air Force A-10's suppressing Pakistani fire power, with fighter air cover suppressing Pakistani Air Force elements, and helo transported ground forces from the 101st Airborne relieving the siege of the SEAL team.

That is my speculation of the operational aspect. The political aspect is quite another matter.

Some political persons might see it as better to sacrifice a SEAL team. i would not presume to speculate how the Administration would have reacted politically. HOWEVER, that the incident would be political and decisions made by Civilian leadership, must also bear weight in our little 'what if' senerio

 

Tovarich

Banned
Ok, let's leave aside the idea that things would play out like an episode of 'Deadliest Warrior' :rolleyes:

I suspect the first consequence would be many resignations from the White House PR staff and/or US diplomatic corps who don't want the task of explaining why a supposed US ally was not at least informed about US military action on their sovereign turf.

Was what happened actually technically an act of war?
(Genuine question there, NOT trolling, I assure you!)

I sure as hell wouldn't want to be the guy handling political/diplomatic ramifications of that!
 

iddt3

Donor
Ok, let's leave aside the idea that things would play out like an episode of 'Deadliest Warrior' :rolleyes:

I suspect the first consequence would be many resignations from the White House PR staff and/or US diplomatic corps who don't want the task of explaining why a supposed US ally was not at least informed about US military action on their sovereign turf.

Was what happened actually technically an act of war?
(Genuine question there, NOT trolling, I assure you!)

I sure as hell wouldn't want to be the guy handling political/diplomatic ramifications of that!
I think it might have been. On the other hand if Pakistan was knowingly harboring Osama, that is certainly a cause for war itself
 
I think many of you need to re read what I wrote. High Plains Drifter seems to be the only one who understands it. The SEALS can handle a bunch of the other side. Even some armor. I was in the USMC in the 80's . The special forces of the American military wiill be highly trained and prepared in terms of gear and ability. Plus the American military may be out manned , but they are never out gunned. Now if they have a dozen tanks and 1000 men yes the SEALS will be in a whole lot of hurt. Some one mentioned Somalali. That was a tail kicking in terms of loses The American Rangers more than held their own in that fire fight. Now what that means politically, that is a whole different story. i belive once President Obama made the decision to get Bin Laden he was going to get Bin Ladn. And The Pakistan army would just be a road block.
 

celt

Banned
I think many of you need to re read what I wrote. High Plains Drifter seems to be the only one who understands it. The SEALS can handle a bunch of the other side. Even some armor. I was in the USMC in the 80's . The special forces of the American military wiill be highly trained and prepared in terms of gear and ability. Plus the American military may be out manned , but they are never out gunned. Now if they have a dozen tanks and 1000 men yes the SEALS will be in a whole lot of hurt. Some one mentioned Somalali. That was a tail kicking in terms of loses The American Rangers more than held their own in that fire fight. Now what that means politically, that is a whole different story. i belive once President Obama made the decision to get Bin Laden he was going to get Bin Ladn. And The Pakistan army would just be a road block.

I'm not completely disagreeing with you,but the Pakistan army are not a bunch of cowboys(excuse the pun!) they are a completely professional army based on the traditions of the old British Indian army,and I believe they still try to have a regimental similar to the UK's.
They would be the highest quality of opponent any western unit has faced in a very long time.

^ http://timesofpakistan.pk/editorials/2010-10-23/when-going-gets-tough-tough-get-going/9298

That thing is nails by the way.
 
I'm not completely disagreeing with you,but the Pakistan army are not a bunch of cowboys(excuse the pun!) they are a completely professional army based on the traditions of the old British Indian army,and I believe they still try to have a regimental similar to the UK's.

Agreed. Definitely a professional, trained army.

The context of how the forces meet and how large a Pakistani force is present would determine which side ends up the "winner" or the "loser".

For a conflict on the ground, with the amount of air & real time satellite based recon the US must have been using for the raid, I would rate the probability of a large Pakistani unit being present as low. If large numbers of men and vehicles are moving anywhere in Abbottabad, the Seals would get called off. Even if the helicopters were already in Pakistan airspace.

So what's the maximum amount of Pakistani military based road traffic moving anywhere in Abbottabad near the projected insertion time point that the US would still risk the mission with? Some combination of 10 trucks and APCs? Carrying max of 100 to 150 men? I don't have a clue as to what the US go/no go point would be.

I think if the US recon capabilities spot anything larger than an APC moving around they'd get spooked and pull the mission before it lands.


Now if the Pakistani military knew the raid was coming with enough time to prepare a decent sized trap in place, undetected and not too far from the compound ... say at least 300+ men supported by a few heavy machine guns, mortars, and heavy vehicles, then the Seals are toast. If that happens, I don't want to think about the repercussions of Pakistani-US relations. It would get ugly and quickly.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
Agreed. Definitely a professional, trained army.

The context of how the forces meet and how large a Pakistani force is present would determine which side ends up the "winner" or the "loser".

For a conflict on the ground, with the amount of air & real time satellite based recon the US must have been using for the raid, I would rate the probability of a large Pakistani unit being present as low. If large numbers of men and vehicles are moving anywhere in Abbottabad, the Seals would get called off. Even if the helicopters were already in Pakistan airspace.

So what's the maximum amount of Pakistani military based road traffic moving anywhere in Abbottabad near the projected insertion time point that the US would still risk the mission with? Some combination of 10 trucks and APCs? Carrying max of 100 to 150 men? I don't have a clue as to what the US go/no go point would be.

I think if the US recon capabilities spot anything larger than an APC moving around they'd get spooked and pull the mission before it lands.


Now if the Pakistani military knew the raid was coming with enough time to prepare a decent sized trap in place, undetected and not too far from the compound ... say at least 300+ men supported by a few heavy machine guns, mortars, and heavy vehicles, then the Seals are toast. If that happens, I don't want to think about the repercussions of Pakistani-US relations. It would get ugly and quickly.
Yes, a nation with an unstable government and military leadership angry at the US AND possessing nuclear weapons could get very interesting in the Chinese sense of the word.
 
If there was to be any form of interception I could see it being the ISI tipping off Bin Laden that the SEALs were coming. IIRC, without looking it up, it was a Heliborne operation so roadblocks would have been pretty unlikely.
If it turned into a fire fight I could see it more likely to be the SEALs go straight to defence and wait for someone to talk some sense into the local commander, or until they're in a position to bug out.
No dead and maybe a few wounded at most and nobody would ever know unless wikileaks got hold of it. .
 

Cook

Banned
The assault team went in in two specialist helicopters with low noise and very small radar signatures. They flew into a city that had just been blacked out and they weren’t flying in blind; the ground team that provided the black-out were also there to provide intelligence on the situation on the ground, had there been any army activity in the city the assault would not have preceded. So interception of the team before they reached Bin Laden’s compound can be largely ruled out.

Abbottabad is a quiet city in the north of Pakistan, well clear of the Afghan border and not prone to disturbances, no doubt this is why Bin Laden chose it to hide in. Although there is an army garrison in the town it is unlikely that they were in any kind of state of alert, in all likelihood they had a platoon on standby as ready reaction and a company designated as on duty to back them up. Since the attack took place in the early hours of the morning the ready reaction platoon was in the common room watching a movie or playing cards, and cursing the lights having suddenly gone out, or dozing on bunks next door. The first anyone at the base would have known anything was amiss would be at the sound of the Blackhawk crashing in Bin Laden’s compound, if they were even close enough to hear it.

So the first the Pakistani authorities know anything is happening is when they hear a crash or someone telephones it in to them. Initial thoughts would be that the crash has somehow caused the blackout or been caused by the blackout. Either way the first response is going to be fire brigade or ambulance rather than military, it is only once the shooting starts in the compound that that is likely to change.

Assuming the duty officer at the barracks responds promptly to initial reports and immediately stands too the ready reaction force they aren’t going to spring instantly into action; this is occurring late at night (after midnight) and the city is now blacked out; men are stumbling around just trying to find torches with which to locate the rest of their kit with. By the time all members of the ready reaction force is awake, kitted out and sitting in land rovers and trucks you’d be lucky in less than fifteen minutes has gone by, it’d be miraculous if anyone’s rolling out the front gate in less than half an hour.

So the Pakistani ready reaction force, in three or four vehicles rolls out the front gate in the direction of gunfire and explosions. They still have no idea what is going on. At the first sign of significant activity in the barracks the American back-up force, in three Chinook helicopters, would move in from where they’d been loitering outside the city and move to intercept the vehicles well before they got close to the target compound. The Pakistani’s would find themselves coming under fire from the air. The shooting would be precise and coming from multiple directions. This is not a situation that would appeal to many and would promptly halt the vehicle convoy.

The Pakistanis would then be pinned down until the assault team had completed their task and been extracted, at which time the backup force would break off their action and depart.

At which point the diplomatic shitstorm would begin.
 
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