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I was reading this thread... Some things just had to be answered.

Alien and Sedition Bat said:
the U.S. submarine force had devoted itself mostly to supply runs to Mindanao and other islands, and if possible to Bataan (since our subs' torpedos were garbage, the subs had nothing more important to do)
That is really the most enormous & mistaken use of the Sub Force I can imagine.:eek::eek: Subs would never have delivered more than driblets of supplies (nor ever did), & even with the lousy Mark 14s, basing in Oz (which was stupid), & being kept out of the most profitable patrol areas (Luzon & Formosa Straits) managed to sink 725K tons of shipping in 1942.

Furthermore, Japanese convoys, in the main, were so damn small & poorly escorted, even three-boat co-ordinated "packs" weren't really necessary. (More boats than that were a waste of effort.)
CalBear said:
1. Bataan holds for at least six more weeks. Nobody could have fumbled the defense of the PI worse than Mac (which is ironic since he absolutely LOVED the Islands). Alternate commander is simple since he is already in the Islands; Wainwright (see Redux).

2. Australian troops are used in a far more effective manner.

3. Leyte is never invaded (what a dumb ass idea that was). Go straight for Luzon if you go at all. Better to not go at all, except for the fact you are writing off the PoWs.

4. No Leyte = No Peleliu

Those are the positives.

Negative

1. No MacArthur to act as Military Governor of Japan. I doubt there was another American officer who could have pulled off what 'Ol Doug managed.

2. No Inchon.
To which I must add:
5. The Sub Force would probably be pulled back entirely to Hawaii, rather than subordinated to a SWPA command, which means sinkings of Japanese merchantmen go up noticeably.
6. With no SWPA, Luzon & Formosa Straits aren't off-limits to subs, which also increases sinkings.
6b. Between 5 & 6, sinkings of things Japanese are probably up 30% or more over OTL, changing nothing else. This probably shortens the war 3-4mo, maybe more.
7. No Leyte means U.S. CVs aren't acting as floating airbases for 6mo.
8. No Leyte means no "accidental" reinforcement of Iwo Jima & Okinawa.
8b. Between 7 & 8, the war is probably shortened 6-8mo.
9. With the Pacific War shortened, there's a very good chance Japan surrenders before Soviet entry into the war, so no joint occupation of Korea. (Or was that decided already?)
9b. There is less chance the Chinese become involved if there is war in Korea, because there's no ill-advised advance to the Yalu; thus, there's no need for the "Inchon Miracle"
10. Without Soviet involvement in the war against Japan, KMT wins the Chinese Civil War. (CCP benefitted rather a lot from Red Army materiel left behind.:eek:)
Gridley said:
when the US reaches the western Pacific it will probably invade Formosa instead of the Philippines.
:eek::eek::eek::eek: That would be the height of crazy. It would never happen. Nor would it have to.
Bearcat said:
In retrospect, the great little known prize of 1944 and indeed the entire Pacific War was Ulithi. Maybe the single most critical acquisition for the US in the whole Pacific Advance, and it was essentially undefended.

As a forward fleet base, that atoll with its huge lagoon harbor made every subsequent operation that much easier to mount - the navy no longer had to go back to Majuro in the Marshalls for ammo, repair ships, etc.

So maybe we shuld have grabbed Ulithi first, then the Marianas. By the time you've consolidated Guam and Saipan, Ulithi is the Pacific Fleet Advance Base, and now leaping to Okinawa and / or relatively less defended Iwo (less than later, in '45) by way of Ulithi might just be possible.
That is an excellent suggestion.:cool:
Yankflyboy said:
And, as to Rainbow, there was never a formal plan to reinforce the Philippines, because Dumbass Doug shot down the idea so quickly that it was never even planned out.
No, there was no formal plan because the Navy war planners weren't complete morons.:rolleyes: They had realized long ago holding the P.I. was a fantasy: it was MacArthur who proposed doing it was credible.:rolleyes:
Geon said:
The only way I could remotely see this happening is if there is no MacArthur, there is no 24 hour break down where all personnel are barred from his presence and by the end of which the entire army air corps in the Phillippines is gone. If another general had taken immediate action, meaning getting the planes off the ground within minutes of getting the news of the attack from Pearl, then the planes might be saved and scattered to emergency air fields or at least able to get a few licks in.
They actually did take off shortly after learning of the attack. MacArthur couldn't be reached by Brereton to give permission to attack Formosa--despite MacArthur having been given express orders to execute Rainbow 5.:rolleyes: (He would later claim he didn't because they couldn't have been escorted, ignoring AAF doctrine which held the B-17s should defend themselves...)
Gridley said:
This is a good point. OTOH, Mac was offered a US National Guard division in September of 1941. He turned it down.
:rolleyes:
Gridley said:
My understanding is that Mac was placed in charge as a consequence of the decision to hold the islands. In part, that decision was probably made because of him.
My understanding is, the decision to hold was a consequence; either way, it was because he was there.

A more important question, IMO, is what happens with a different CO. Do you get a larger number of prepared positions? Stockpiling of material for improvised bunkers & such, & for roadblocks? IIRC, there weren't even plans for this, let alone actual work done.:rolleyes::mad: OTOH, without MacArthur, does the amount of medicine & ammo actually end up being lower than OTL?:eek:
Astrodragon said:
Basically all IJA operations were heavily constrained due to logistics, and particularly shipping - that was why they did so many shoestrings ops, they didnt have the resources to task them properly. The miracle for them was that so many worked at first.
Indeed, & TTL, as described above, it's likely things are perceptibly worse, even if the "shock & awe" effect in the first 6mo is the same (& I see no reason it would be much less).
Based on what I've been reading here about "Victory Disease" for Japan allow me to say a few words.

First--With no MacArthur I think there is a consensus here that the Philippine campaign lasts longer for the Japanese and ties up more of their troops. What effect will that have? Not much for the overall war as far as I can see. It may delay certain Japanese operations by a few months and its possible that the raids southward on Port Moresby and the Battle of the Coral Sea might be butterflied away given that ground and air forces needed for those battles (or that were supposed to be transported during those battles i.e. Coral Sea) would need to be diverted to the Philippines. This means the Japanese would have one extra deck at Midway (Shokaku) and so would the Allies (Lexington). Assuming all things being equal at Midway the Japanese then would lose five carriers including the Shokaku while we still lose the Yorktown and possibly (note--I say possibly given the extra carrier available to the IJN) one other carrier. This may delay our attempt to retake Guadalcanal and Tarawa as the U.S. rebuilds its carrier force but I still believe by the end of 1943 we would have cleared Guadalcanal and Tarawa and be well on the way to retaking the central Pacific Theater.
This makes a lot of sense to me. However, given a longer P.I. battle, I'd propose this: no Doolittle Raid, so both Enterprise & Hornet are at *Coral Sea (which IMO is still likely, if delayed).

That doesn't mean there would be no Allied changes. Is there a lesser perceived threat to Oz? It seems so. That would tend to mean a couple of Oz divisions could be released for North Africa...

How does Nimitz (or whoever commands *SWPA) respond to the Japanese threat to Oz? What about using the Marine Raiders to take Tulagi, before Japan gets there?:cool: This butterflies the Makin Raid--& also means, as a consequence, Japanese defenses in the Gilberts are much weaker, so Tarawa isn't a bloodbath.:cool:
Yankflyboy said:
Which leaves us with Patton.

He would either mount a far more effective defensive campaign than Doug, or get bored in late 1941 and launch an independant preemptive strike against Japan. :D
LOL. He would, at the very least, have excellent defensive positions planned, if not actually built. (Building them before 7/12/41 seems contrary to DC's wishes, even tho Japan had abrogated the WNC {or was it LNC? I always get them confused:eek:} in '36, so building defenses would've been okay.)

My guess is, it'd be Mac's XO, Wainwright, absent butterflies.
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