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So, in this ATL, let's suppose that Japan managed to end the war with China relatively quickly, in 1937 or 1938 at the latest, maybe they do better militarily, or the chinese do worse, or Chiang is out of the picture somehow (like being killed in 1936) and the chinese were more fragmented, maybe Japan bought a few warlords, you name it.

I am assuming for this TL that as they would be very cocky after the "easy" victory against China, they still get to grips with USSR in 1939 and they get a cold shower in Manchuria, while after WW2 starts and France is defeated, they seize the opportunity to occupy Indochina, thus getting into a collision course with the americans like OTL and the war starting about same as OTL.

So the question is, what impact does not having an active war against China has on the military operations in 1941-1942 and beyond, and what impact will have using most of the money spent OTL in China for other purposes, i am reading that apparently China cost them 20 BILLION yen in 1937-1941, to put into some kind of perspective this is the equivalent of about 200 (two HUNDRED!) Shokaku class carriers!

Also, how are the US-rump China relations progress in this ATL, are the americans still arming them (actually this could be a cassus beli for the japanese Indochina invasion in 1940), and when it is likely for China to re-enter the war? I am assuming that 1942 would look like a very bad time to do that, so they will probabaly do it once it might seem possible Japan might lose the war, so 1944 or more likely, 1945. But how are the americans going to transfer weapons to China before they re-enter the war, being that they would be a "neutral" state?
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