Pacific war without China

So, in this ATL, let's suppose that Japan managed to end the war with China relatively quickly, in 1937 or 1938 at the latest, maybe they do better militarily, or the chinese do worse, or Chiang is out of the picture somehow (like being killed in 1936) and the chinese were more fragmented, maybe Japan bought a few warlords, you name it.

I am assuming for this TL that as they would be very cocky after the "easy" victory against China, they still get to grips with USSR in 1939 and they get a cold shower in Manchuria, while after WW2 starts and France is defeated, they seize the opportunity to occupy Indochina, thus getting into a collision course with the americans like OTL and the war starting about same as OTL.

So the question is, what impact does not having an active war against China has on the military operations in 1941-1942 and beyond, and what impact will have using most of the money spent OTL in China for other purposes, i am reading that apparently China cost them 20 BILLION yen in 1937-1941, to put into some kind of perspective this is the equivalent of about 200 (two HUNDRED!) Shokaku class carriers!

Also, how are the US-rump China relations progress in this ATL, are the americans still arming them (actually this could be a cassus beli for the japanese Indochina invasion in 1940), and when it is likely for China to re-enter the war? I am assuming that 1942 would look like a very bad time to do that, so they will probabaly do it once it might seem possible Japan might lose the war, so 1944 or more likely, 1945. But how are the americans going to transfer weapons to China before they re-enter the war, being that they would be a "neutral" state?
 
I don't see how Japan could get involved in WWII. They are too busy digesting China. Even if they win they have a host of problems. At the very least there would be the guerrilla war would continue for a while. The guerrillas would lose but they would keep the Japanese busy.
 
You can't handwave away the second Sino-Japanese war. If the Japanese somehow win that war there is no Pacific War end of story. The U.S oil embargo and subsequent Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, came about from the Japanese occupation of Indochina to cut off supplies to the Chinese forces.
 
Well, this is the TL, war in the Pacific without China being at war with Japan after some kind of peace, armistice you name it in 1937-1938. Perhaps it is unlikely but not impossible. This is not about what if Japan enter the war if it wins in China. For the record, i have read the japanese hoped that if they take Nanking the hostilities would end. It didn't, but in this TL it did through a combination of factors as i outlined above.
 
I can not see China not being in a Pacific War in some sort of way. The only way I might foresee this would be for Japan and the US getting into a fighting war before 1937, or even 1931 before Manchukuo was created.

Don't ask me how, but Japanese insanity causes it to declare that all Non Asian Countries had to give up their colonies. Or possibly giving overt aid to PI resistance fighters and refusing to back down when confronted by the US.
 
Well, this is the TL, war in the Pacific without China being at war with Japan after some kind of peace, armistice you name it in 1937-1938. Perhaps it is unlikely but not impossible. This is not about what if Japan enter the war if it wins in China. For the record, i have read the japanese hoped that if they take Nanking the hostilities would end. It didn't, but in this TL it did through a combination of factors as i outlined above.

Again, no they only went into Indochina because they needed to cut off Chinese supplies. The Japanese are more than likely going help whoever is in power pacify China or prepare for a war with the Soviets if the now vindicated Army faction gets its way. Pearl Harbour was a last resort to buy time and gain resorts once negotiations with the U.S broke down and the Japanese couldn't lift the Oil embargo, if there's no need for those negotiations in the first place there won't be a Pacific war.
 
If, for whatever reason, there is no fighting in China, then Japan has absolutely no reason to attack the US/UK/DEI. They might pressure the French about Indochina but not actually occupy and risk US reaction. The US sanctioned Japan, and ratcheted up those sanctions to try and get Japan to stop the fighting in China. If Japan and Chiang come to some sort of peace agreement, the USA might not like the terms and further Japanese hegemony in China, but they won't go to war over it.

Having said that, assume for some insane reason the Japanese proceed as OTL. If the Chinese don't restart the war this means Japan has many more troops, some aircraft, and some (not much) extra shipping to use but basically no more naval forces than OTL. Lack of troops was not really the Japanese problem in the Pacific War. Once the initial wave of victories ended, the ability to produce and deliver the supplies any given garrison needed was the limiting factor, as was naval power. Neither of these is substantially increased by no war in China. IMHO no war in China means Japan may be much more tempted to use those troops piling on the USSR as Germany is seemingly on the way to victory in 1941. Unlike going south, Japan does not need those resources desperately (no more embargo), and the USSR is seen as a major threat. With all the land resources freed up by no war in China this going north strategy is more likely to win out.

If things go as OTL I expect the fighting may be bloodier, the progress across the Pacific possibly a little slower, but Japan still gets nuked about on time.
 
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