Pacific War if Europe Peace?

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I have following scenario in mind: Japan attacks China. As in real world it makes USA vary of their business with Chinase (real or potential) so they proceed with worse and worse terms of trade for Japan, leading to embargo. Unlike real world Europe is in peace, if uneasy one. There is some sabre rattling between the Powers, but the all out war is avoided.

Question I: Is it propable that Japan would still declare war on US just out of spite of embargo, when they can still trade with other Powers.

Question II: supposedly they still do make war. How much harder would be defeat of better supplied Japan if there is at least part of USN Atlantic warships available.
 
The embargo went into effect following the occupation of French Indochina. With France not under attack herself, this is not an option. Without the embargo, Japan has no reason to attack the US and strike the DEI.
 
The embargo went into effect following the occupation of French Indochina.

Yeah, but the trend towards embargo was already there. It's entirely conceivable that the US would have put it down eventually even without the occupation of French Indochina. People who assume that no Japanese occupation of Indochina = guaranteed no embargo are treating the incident too much in isolation.

That being said, Japan's options for dealing with the embargo are also much more limited without a war in Europe. Not only do they lack a launching platform against Southeast Asia without French Indochina, but the Dutch and British armed forces in the region will be much stronger. And if the embargo comes down in mid-'42 or later, Japan's window for a strike against the United States is pretty closed.
 
Without France being at war you don't have a chance of Japan occupying Indochina. Without the occupation there is no reason for the Embargo. Without the Embargo you don't have a reason for Japan to go to war.

So you need to find a reason for the Embargo or another excuse for the war.
 
Have Japan continue Nanking style atrocities for another decade, have more outrage in the west along with boycotts and pressure on governments to do something, have more funding sent to china by the west, have one of the more psychotic japanese generals (mayhap the violently anti west Masunobu Tsuji who helped cause the 1939 border conflicts with the USSR by sheer bloody minded idiocy) decide to take matters into his own hands in order to "intimidate" the west...

Its possible. Wars have started for dumber reasons. But this whole sequence of events is a big long chain of "maybes" rather than solid facts of what would happen, so honestly its pretty unlikely
 
Eventually after occuping all of "China" (real China, not including Tibet which was internationally recognized independent and Uighur northwest areas which was functionally independent) the Japanese almost certainly would run a foul of USSR regarding Uighur and Mongolia influence, probably more arrangements are found and no war.

Now Japan, by 1945 with no distractions of occupying Philippines, Indonesia, Burma, etc, can have effectively controlled China (warlord puppets for places like Hunan, Yunnan; not uncommon for Chinese dynasties, most used local autonomous warlords who had paper loyalty, Chinese will accept this). Japan will eventually have to face that European treaty ports are from treaties that they either accept or repudiate, France, UK with two, Portugal, and Italy all have cities. Depending on stresses in Europe and UK's distraction with Gandhi in India (without WWII there is a more militant revolution in India ATL). I see Japan increasing influence in Thailand, funding revolutions amd terrorist activities in IndoChina, Phillipines, British Malay, and Dutch East Indies, even fund Hawai'i activists demanding autonomy or indeoendence; show of force with navy making calls on ports, even a "world tour" a la US Commodore Perry's White Fleet (OTL Japan having their navy in the Mediterranean during WWI was a big source of pride for them).

Purchasing Wehei from Britain, Kwantung (sp?) from France, Italy's city, and ending extraterritoriality in Tietsin and foreign districts. Japan is seen as China is today and does similar activities such as technical support, money, and building expertise to "third world" nations- US worries about Japanese doing such things in Latin America, possible Japanese company talks about a canal in Nicaragua, influence in Peru, Chile, Brazil. Japan moves in to investing in Australia seriously becoming a major trading partner and owner of industrial production as British investment slips. Trucial States, Oman, Zanzibar, Kuwait, Ottoman Empire, and Ethiopia all see influx of Japanese investment and influence and of those that are British like Kuwait may start to reconsider their voluntary status in the British Empire.

As oil becomes more developed in the region thanks to Japanese technical support and Japanese ownership of the rigs the British can become seriously worried. France, Australia, NZ, British, Canada, and the US thanks to part racism, part economic and part geopolitical jealousy end up with possiblilities of how to deal with the rise of Japan. Without the horrors of WWII I would lean towards a continuation of haughty European and American exceptionalism that can lead to Cold War as Japan gains post-colonial third world allies to join it and Thailand in a Japanese led coalition of nations following "the Japanese way of capitalism". Proxy wars between Western backed nations and Japanese backed nations, coups and counter coups.
 
Question II: supposedly they still do make war. How much harder would be defeat of better supplied Japan if there is at least part of USN Atlantic warships available.
Regarding this, let's assume Japan's war goals are the same, ie. occupying the DEI and pushing a perimeter out as far as possible while battering the US into a white peace. As already mentioned, they will start without French Indochina, which massively reels in their early-war successes. They can't push quickly into Malaya or Borneo, but have to start with the first line of Allied defenses in the Philippines and Indochina. By the time those are occupied, British, French, and Dutch forces will have been greatly reinforced due to the general peace in Europe. Whether they get past Borneo is debatable, but Singapore is likely impossible. So the Allies have jumping off points ringing the Japanese perimeter and the Japanese probably don't get much oil. When the USN figures out its sub torpedo issues, Japan is toast. They have fewer supplies (no DEI and a submersible embargo), are facing stronger enemies, and have less territory to fall back upon when the Allies gain the offensive. I'd be surprised if such a war lasted three years.
 

Insider

Banned
Ok. Thaks for this clarification. Good to know that even the Japanese wouldn't be keen on starting war with whole world. I guess US-Japanese Taritff War should be interesting enough.
 
You mean 'tariff' war? Japan was heavily dependent on US banks for government & commercial loans. That give the US a degree of advantage.
 
If somehow Japan and the US got into a War without others, you might see them still trying to ship oil and other supplied from the neutral Europeans. They may make some devil sided trades with Russia. They will still lose and pay the price, though how severely would depend on how long the War lasts.
 

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You mean 'tariff' war? Japan was heavily dependent on US banks for government & commercial loans. That give the US a degree of advantage.
Oh... yes, my bad.
As for Japan, unless they would want to back down and be a good dog, I guess that Swiss credits, or German credits, or Dutch credits (or any others as long they are backed in gold in the end of the line) are just as good as American. The trade would continue, but I see the Americans trying to convince others to join the embargo as well.
Paradoxally I don't see the Pacific War starting, unless this diplomatic offensive would be completely successful (i.e. most European Powers join the embargo, cutting off the trade as OTL) or completely unsuccessful, when US may choose to go to war since diplomacy failed. Or even better, they could come up with idea that they should blockade Japan and controll the shipping. This would be like... "Incident in three ... two ... one..."
 
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Oh... yes, my bad. As for Japan, unless they would want to back down and be a good dog, I guess that Swiss credits, or German credits, or Dutch credits (or any others as long they are backed in gold in the end of the line) are just as good as American. ..."

As far as I know the US & London banks had control of the bulk of the available capitol in that era. The other nations lacked the same scale of pooled capitol & the sort of interconnected banks the US & Britian had. Also the traditional policies of the colonial powers like the French, Belgian, & Dutch had been 'safe' investment internally. Japan in that era was seen as a higher risk debtor.
 

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As far as I know the US & London banks had control of the bulk of the available capitol in that era. The other nations lacked the same scale of pooled capitol & the sort of interconnected banks the US & Britian had. Also the traditional policies of the colonial powers like the French, Belgian, & Dutch had been 'safe' investment internally. Japan in that era was seen as a higher risk debtor.
No doubt to that. With all this making war of agression their credits would be pretty pricy. But with choice of having some, or none at all, jingoist government of japan would choose to take it no matter what the price.
 
Ultimately the Zaibatsu were the ones writing the checks, either for commercial loan pmts, or as taxes to pay the government debt. They had the power to start the wars. i wonder if they had the power to stop them?
 
Not only do they lack a launching platform against Southeast Asia without French Indochina...
Would that be a complete block though? Taiwan was Japenese territory, they'd invaded and had been occupying the southern areas of China such as Guangdong or Hainan for a couple of years. Obviously the extra distance involved would make things much harder but I was just wondering whether it would tip it into impossible, although considering how optimistic/divorced from reality many of the Japanese leadership seem to have been that still might not have been a bar to their attempting it.
 
Would that be a complete block though? Taiwan was Japenese territory, they'd invaded and had been occupying the southern areas of China such as Guangdong or Hainan for a couple of years. Obviously the extra distance involved would make things much harder but I was just wondering whether it would tip it into impossible, although considering how optimistic/divorced from reality many of the Japanese leadership seem to have been that still might not have been a bar to their attempting it.

It does not block a invasion, but makes it more difficult and vulnerable. It was the threat of Japanese air attack that hampered the search by the PoW & Repulse for the Japanese invasion fleet. Without the Indochina air base the Japanese have no air support at Khota Baru, and they don't sink the British warships with air strikes.
 
It does not block a invasion, but makes it more difficult and vulnerable. It was the threat of Japanese air attack that hampered the search by the PoW & Repulse for the Japanese invasion fleet. Without the Indochina air base the Japanese have no air support at Khota Baru, and they don't sink the British warships with air strikes.
Right. I suppose they could always try for a three stage approach then - invasion of the Philippines and French Indochina at roughly the same time, use the latter as a jumping off point to invade Malaya and Borneo/the Dutch East Indies, then push the boundaries out further once the main objectives have been met. The big risk with this of course is that it gives the British and Dutch more time to get ready.
 

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I doubt there would be any invasion in that scenario unless something cause Albion, Dutch and French to join embargo. Even then the OTL Japanese plan assumed that expendable forces would try to neutralize the USN Pacific fleet, while their battlewagons would deal with Atlantic fleet coming in to save the Philippines. In this scenario they would have to confront British backed by French and Dutch squadrons. In this scenario even if they manage to prevent the destruction of their naval assets, securing Indochina and Philippines would take a month at best, before they can launch assault at Malaya. By that stage airbase at Alor Setar is packed to capacity with Spitfires and modern bombers (Wellingtons). So is Singapore and airfields along the coast. The invasion was already shoestring in OTL (perhaps even more then eponymus Battle of Guadalcanal). With additional forces on defenders part I cannot see them taking Malaya. Taking Singapore is out of question, unless again they put inept surrender monkey in position of its commander.
 
... The big risk with this of course is that it gives the British and Dutch more time to get ready.

Yup. Heres what the US Army sent to the S Pacific in early 1942 for ground forces. They also stood up the 5th AF in Australia from January to April. In theory part of this could be used to reinforce the DEI. OTL a artillery battalion arrived and enough P40 for a fighter group delivered, but not stood up. The Japanese captured Raubal in January as part of securing the DEI. If that is delayed then it is possible the US TF 6814 is sent to Raubal, and/or the Australians send reinforcements. The possibilities are large.

TF 6814 South Pacific 1/42 - Fiji, Samoa, New Calidonia (AmeriCal Div )

41 Infantry South Pacific......3/42 Australia

27 Infantry Pacific 3/42

1 Marine South Pacific 3/42 Fiji to Aug 42

32 Infantry South Pacific 4/42

37 Infantry South Pacific 5/42
 
Being able to stop Japan from getting Rabaul puts a crimp in Japanese operations in the SW Pacific. Granted if only Japan and the US are fighting, with everyone else staying neutral, things will be a slow process of the US building up its naval and invasion craft. Probably a lot of sub warfare and carrier raids.
 
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