Pacific War, 1954

The Chinese commitment is going to be much smaller. Almost to the point of non-existence after some point in the 1930s. An early end to the Chinese war and the nailing down of the DEI oil are the two lynchpins of letting me hold the war over until the mid-50s.

Well, as I said before, unless they also give up Manchuria, they will face ongoing partisan warfare there. No way the Chinese population would accept continuing exploitation on that scale into the era of decolonization, and whatever government(s) rules in China proper is certainly going to be offering covert assistance.
 
Well, as I said before, unless they also give up Manchuria, they will face ongoing partisan warfare there. No way the Chinese population would accept continuing exploitation on that scale into the era of decolonization, and whatever government(s) rules in China proper is certainly going to be offering covert assistance.

Except Chinese nationalism already existed by the 1930s, and Manchukuo did not face partisan troubles. Indeed, Chinese people flocked to it.
 
Except Chinese nationalism already existed by the 1930s, and Manchukuo did not face partisan troubles. Indeed, Chinese people flocked to it.

And Indian nationalism existed in the 30s while the Raj did not face partisan troubles. How much would you want to bet on that remaining the case into the 50s? Especially considering that someone is eventually going to come out on top and fully in control in China proper sooner or later. The warlords can't keep their power forever, and without the second Sino-Japanese war, the Nationalists almost certainly have enough strength to gradually finish the warlords' independent power within the alliance, and drive the communists completely underground, at which point they are going to be seriously supporting dissidents in Manchuria.
 
I'm afraid I do have some logic issues with the timeline.
Broadly, we sem to have the European part of WW2 happenig on schedule, with nothing hapenning east of suez as the Japanese have a rush of common sense to the head.

Assuming this, a number of drivers may or may not change.
At what point does the USA enter the war? OTL, Rosevelt was trying hard for an incident, I am assuming that at some point this happensand the US declares war on Germany. When? Given the state of the US buildup, it wont actually make much difference as long asit happens by early 1943 - up to that point, the main problem fo the alies would be the need for US escorts in the Atlantic. US ground forces weren't involved until Torch, and with on eastern issues the UK can do Torch on its own.
Indeed, the European war will probably finish early. 15% of resources doesnt seem like much, but some of this was in the 2 major bottlenecks of shipping and landing ships. With these available, for example, the Italian campaign could have been done properly, looping around every defence line as it got established.

Now I have issues with your happy waving away of nukes. The drivers for the allied program had nothing whatever to do with Japan. they were conceived as a counter to Germany, and nothing is going to stop of slow this - even if Germany surrenders early, the program will be so far advanced it will carry on to completion (the expensive bits have been doone by them). At the most, a bomb in 1946. The bomb is so obvious a winner that the US will keep on building them, and the Russians and UK will gear up to copy. Again, whatever Japan does is irrelevant to this. only some ASB interventoin is going to slow this down

The next issue is what does the lack of a pacific war do to military build drivers, during and after the war?
The ground and air ones aren't likely to change. In OTL< these were driven by Germany, then Russia, and I dont se anything making changes here.
the Naval results are going to be a lot more interesting.
While the carrier is still going to be vital- the RN were seeing it as often the decicive ship by 1942, ignoring the pacific, I'd see differences.
Probably heavier armour (after experiences in the Med and East atlantic), which either implies bigger ships of smaller airgroups. With no PH and Midway, the battleship is likely still around, though fading out. Remember, the Japanese are going to have 3 Yamato class floating around. So the Montana class will be built, and probably the Lion class by the RN. The carriers will also be tasked to take out these monsters, and it would be likely more advanced subs as well (using thoe captured German subs), again as a reult of what was done to the allies in Europe. Given experience in the Med, and the ned to take out super-battleships, I'd expect rather more effort on guided and smart bombs.
The efect of a big, possibly hostile navy in the far east is going to affect allied postwar building. In OTL, the naval program was cut back (especially in the UK), due to lack of money and no possible enemy to fight. Now there is one. So we would see a bigger heavy ship build by both the USA and UK. Montanas and probably some modified Midway class carriers for the USA, Lions and the Eagle and Malta classes for the RN. NOt a huge number, they still cost a lot, however it will be seen as important, maybe with money saved on other military programs.
The question is, how much and how fast do the Japanese keep building?? By 1950, financial constraints are becoming less onerous on the allies, so if they keep going the eraly 50's will see new, much more powerful, ships laid down. I would also expect Australia to have stronger forces than OTL - for example they may have commisioned 2 of the ex-british CVL's rather than one.

The proposed Japanese plan is still strongly flawed, however.
In order to get to the DEI, you have to worry about interdiction from Malaya and the PI. NOT Australia. In order to get at Malasia, you need to take out FIC...
Your logical attack is FIC, followed by Malaya (you MAY get away with leaving the PI alone). Execpt here you are ignoring all 3..so all those tankers just bacame targets from British subs and aircraft. Oops.
You have other problems, namely at what point does India work out they are the enemy? Once they do, your Malaya/Burma campaign just got curbstomped by the Indian army, irrespective of what anyone else does.

I actually think Japanes best bet is to only go for the DEI, and play the other colonial powers and the US off (at least to stall any direct action), then claim to be liberating the DEI from colonial overlords (and in gratitude, the new government lets you have the oil). Granted, Japanese operations never seemed too strongly tinged with eality, but even so the proposed plan seems to be heaing for that good old lava-bath....
 
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