Pacific War, 1954

Problem is -- Without the Korean War US military strength was headed toward 1939~1940 levels, So your Forrestal class ships never get built.

In OTL the US was not involved in a true naval buildup in the post-war era as there was no true peer competitor. In TTL, in postwar era there's the Japanese threat which will be drummed up for the Navy.

As for "heading towards 39-40 level", in 1939 the US defense spending in 2005 USD's was roughly 22 billion USD. In 1949 it was 152 billion USD and rising. In pct of GDP in 1939 it was 2 % of GDP, in 1949 8% of GDP and rising. In reality the US defense establishment was suffering from gross mismanagement when Korean War started, it was not starved of funds as the populist descriptions are made. Instead of producing combat ready units it was trying to produce protected jobs for future expansion which was fulfilled, in OTL, between 1950-1953. It's always much more challenging to manage a contracting rather than expanding military force. If Korean war had not came, in few years there would have been either a management revolution within the US military or the force would have taken a "Russian road", ie. become a money sinkhole which is not capable of turning out any results despite rather large military
spending.
 
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MacCaulay

Banned
So does anyone know anything about Japanese designs for post-War aircraft? That could point us in some sort of direction for the way their aviation would've gone.
 

CalBear

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So does anyone know anything about Japanese designs for post-War aircraft? That could point us in some sort of direction for the way their aviation would've gone.

The Japanese had planned the Ki-201 (a version of the Me-262), the Kikka, a twin jet that drew inspiration from the Me-262, a rather bizarre design for a canard style fighter the Kyushu J7W (which was also slated for a jet version), the J8M (a copy of the Me-163), and various conventional piston engined fighter meant to intercept the B-29.

Japanese designs, from mid-1944 onward were mostly desperate efforts to stem the American tide. There were several rather nice late war fighter, the Raiden was a match for anything the Allies were flying in late 1942 when it was supposed to be introduced, but it was delayed for almost two years due to engine problems, a very common problem with all mid-late war IJA/IJN designs.

You can draw almost nothing from the Japanese late war designs to project 1954 aircraft for the simple fact that the aircraft, including the famed (and remarkably over rated) A6M were a result of Japanese combat experiences that, in the proposed Alt T/L, never happened. The Japanese became enamored with very light, highly maneuverable aircraft during their engagements over China so they built aircraft like the A6M and Ki-43. The Japanese have a very different attitude toward the survival of their pilots and aircraft than that which existed in the rest of the WW II combatant nations, so survivability was not designed into their aircraft the way it was in the Reich, Soviet, UK, & U.S. fighters and bombers. This attitude was even more remarkable since the supply of skilled pilots was artificially kept extremely low and since Japan had limited resources and production capacity.
 
You can draw almost nothing from the Japanese late war designs to project 1954 aircraft for the simple fact that the aircraft, including the famed (and remarkably over rated) A6M were a result of Japanese combat experiences that, in the proposed Alt T/L, never happened. The Japanese became enamored with very light, highly maneuverable aircraft during their engagements over China so they built aircraft like the A6M and Ki-43. The Japanese have a very different attitude toward the survival of their pilots and aircraft than that which existed in the rest of the WW II combatant nations, so survivability was not designed into their aircraft the way it was in the Reich, Soviet, UK, & U.S. fighters and bombers. This attitude was even more remarkable since the supply of skilled pilots was artificially kept extremely low and since Japan had limited resources and production capacity.

Well, we can assume that some sort of harassing between then and the Chinese would still happen ( and probably the Soviets too ), who knows how would they react to a MIG 15 ( after sh*t in their pants ) ...
 
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The Japanese have a very different attitude toward the survival of their pilots and aircraft than that which existed in the rest of the WW II combatant nations, so survivability was not designed into their aircraft the way it was in the Reich, Soviet, UK, & U.S. fighters and bombers. This attitude was even more remarkable since the supply of skilled pilots was artificially kept extremely low and since Japan had limited resources and production capacity.

I think there are a couple big reasons for this:

One was that Japanese technology and industry, particularlly when it came to metallurgy, aircraft engines, and aviation fuel wasn't quite up to the standard of the other powers, so Japanese aircraft designers had to compromise by accepting a more lightly constructed and much more fragile aircraft that lacked safety features such as armor plating around important areas and self-sealing fuel tanks in order to achieve equivalent performance.

Another one was the whole fixation on the decisive battle stragegy, where the Japanese thought a war with the US or Britain would more or less be decided in one great naval battle, and every bit of planning was dedicated to improving Japanese chances there, to the neglect of most other aspects of strategy and other aspects of naval warfare, including thinking about a protracted conflict. Aircrew training was focused on producing a small group of elite pilots who could outclass their counterparts instead of a steady stream of adquately skilled pilots for a long war. Where it came to equipment such as airplanes or warships, this meant that Japanese designers made trade-offs that emphasized offensive qualities over everything else, including survivability, in order to gain every last bit that could help win that battle, even if it meant accepting higher than 'normal' casulties, because according to stragegic doctrine, after that great battle or two, the war would be over and assuming a Japanese victory, they could replace their losses in a relatively leisurely manner while at peace. Of course, they didn't exactly get the sort of war that they were expecting....

I'm kind of reminded of a line in Peattie & Evan's Kaigun, which to paraphrase, stated that the IJN prepared for battle, but not for war. One can see how that thought is reflected in Japanese equipment design, and it might be possible to extrapolate something from that and historical Japanese designs.

When US technical analysts examined that A6M2 recovered from the Aleutians in 1942, they found that it essentially used unremarkable 1936 technology, but was able to be competitive against somewhat newer, more advanced Allied aircraft because its light construction gave it an unsually high degree of performance for the technology, but paid for that by being fragile and would be outclassed by the new generation of designs entering production such as the Hellcat and the Corsair. Extraploating from this, a hypothetical 1954 Japanese fighter might be a Generation 1 design, which would fall somewhere between say an F-80 & an F-84 in technology, but could give a Gen. 1.5 plane such as a F-86 or MiG-15 a real workout because it achieved a surprising degree of performance at the expense of being lightly built, a trade-off keeping with Japanese pre-war doctrine, and would be flown by an expert. However, said hypothetical Japanese design would be totally screwed going up against a Gen. 2 fighter such as a Super Sabre or Crusader, a situation made even worse for the Japanese because a lack of safety features and light construction would lead to attrition killing off all the expert pilots in short order.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
So...I'm thinking two good examples of how Japanese aircraft design may have gone would've been, say, the Saab 29 Tunnan or the Yak-15 Feather. Probably closer to the Feather. Single engine, emphasis on light weight to amplify the effectiveness of what power they could get out of it.
 
The Japanese had planned the Ki-201 (a version of the Me-262), the Kikka, a twin jet that drew inspiration from the Me-262, a rather bizarre design for a canard style fighter the Kyushu J7W (which was also slated for a jet version), the J8M (a copy of the Me-163), and various conventional piston engined fighter meant to intercept the B-29.

Japanese designs, from mid-1944 onward were mostly desperate efforts to stem the American tide. There were several rather nice late war fighter, the Raiden was a match for anything the Allies were flying in late 1942 when it was supposed to be introduced, but it was delayed for almost two years due to engine problems, a very common problem with all mid-late war IJA/IJN designs.

You can draw almost nothing from the Japanese late war designs to project 1954 aircraft for the simple fact that the aircraft, including the famed (and remarkably over rated) A6M were a result of Japanese combat experiences that, in the proposed Alt T/L, never happened. The Japanese became enamored with very light, highly maneuverable aircraft during their engagements over China so they built aircraft like the A6M and Ki-43. The Japanese have a very different attitude toward the survival of their pilots and aircraft than that which existed in the rest of the WW II combatant nations, so survivability was not designed into their aircraft the way it was in the Reich, Soviet, UK, & U.S. fighters and bombers. This attitude was even more remarkable since the supply of skilled pilots was artificially kept extremely low and since Japan had limited resources and production capacity.


the me 163 would be a very nasty kamikazee aircraft, plus it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to shoot down with AA guns of the day
 

CalBear

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the me 163 would be a very nasty kamikazee aircraft, plus it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to shoot down with AA guns of the day


Only problem would be that they didn't have the range to reach shipping at any distance off shore.

The Japanese used the Ohka, a 500mph rocket with a man in it as a kamikazi, the Ohka was transportable by the G4M bomber which acted as a mother ship to tote it to the target. It proved to be less than the wonder weapon the IJN was hoping for.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I figured I'd bump this as I'm pretty close to halfway through the first story, tentatively titled Batavia. I've also started another untitled story about the Dutch aircraft carrier that is caught almost completely alone off the coast of Mindanao when the attack commences.

This is a rough version of the timeline that will probably be used for the runup and early part of the war, open for your consideration.

1937: Japan and the Netherlands sign a ten year agreement for oil from the Dutch East Indies. This diplomatic coup for the Japanese government keeps the Pacific at peace during the European War.

1939-1945: Various resistance groups begin to sprout up in the Dutch East Indies and French Indochina when the two countries are occupied by the German army. Both nations, with aid garnered from the rest of the world, manage to hold on to their possessions though the French hold in Indochina is much more tenuous.

mid-1945: The European War ends. Within two months of Germany and Italy's surrender, French and Dutch troops bolstered by surplus German, British, or American guns, aircraft, and ships flood into their colonies.
The newly formed United Nations is busy with other matters.

1945-1948: France deploys four different demibrigades of the Foreign Legion to Indochina to maintain order. Vo Nguyen Giap, the guerilla leader they are fighting, steals across the northern border and into the Chinese hinterlands.

1947: The Netherlands and Japan renew their oil sail contract for the Dutch East Indies, this time until 1954, when the Dutch coalition government has promised to have it's next election.

1949: India and Pakistan, following a protracted struggle just before independence, become separate countries inside the Commonwealth.

1948-1955: A homegrown liberation movement for an independent Indonesia headed by Sukarno and Hatta springs up on Borneo and Java, attempting to establish areas of indigenous control in the remote hilly areas of the country.
By 1954 Hatta has been killed in a commando raid, and Sukarno is in hiding in Java from the Dutch authorities who are making substantial progress in their counter-insurgency strategies.

early-1953: The independent Indian government enters into talks with the Dutch government to purchase their next oil contract when it comes up for renewal in 1954. These discussions are kept quiet, but the results of such an action are fairly obvious to the Japanese once they find out. Within a month of the initial Indian query on the subject, there is a quiet but strident bidding war over the oil between the Indian and Japanese governments.

mid-1953: At a speech in Ames, Iowa, former State Department honcho Dean Rusk states that "The Pacific is very much in the US interest, just as much as Europe is. Australia as much as Britain, India as much as France, Indochina as much as West Germany." Pointedly absent from his speech on Pacific Security Policy is any mention of US policy towards the Dutch East Indies and the war that is still burning there.

late-1953: Buoyed by what seems to be US apathy towards the Indonesian Crisis and the Indian/Pacific Ocean border in general, the Japanese General Staff decides to go ahead with advanced planning for a naval and airborne assault to capture the Dutch East Indies and paralyze the Indian naval presence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. At the insistence of members of the government and diplomatic corps, the plan is expanded beyond Indian forces to include certain Australian targets.

early-1954: The Dutch Government announces that India has won a six year contract for oil from it's East Indies colony.
Japan enacts it's war plan, sending airborne troops against the Dutch oil center at Tarakan and into Borneo. They also land amphibious troops at Manado (Sulawesi), capturing a Dutch airfield intact.
Within hours of the Manado Operation, one of the four Japanese carriers in service launches it's strike fighters against Darwin, sinking three warships at anchor and damaging another five. One of these ships is the British carrier HMS Ark Royal, which was being repaired after a collision.
An Indian surface group near Bombay is attacked by several Japanese submarines, and two warships are sunk before they drive off the attackers.

The Japanese Army and Navy make multiple landings on Borneo, Java, and New Guinea, capturing oil fields on the first two and air fields on the latter. Within a month of the war's beginning, Japanese four engined bombers (similar to the Lancaster in ability) are based in north-central New Guinea and flying night raids against northern Australia and eastern Java.
Two divisions of infantry backed by an independent tank brigade land on Java, one hundred miles northwest of the capital: Batavia. They encounter zero resistance when they hit the beach, and only begin to get problems when they start advancing up the spine of the island as the Dutch defenders, backed by a Canadian battalion that was stranded by the outbreak of war, establish concentric defensive lines for miles all the way back to Batavia. For hundreds of miles, the Japanese fight hardened guerilla fighters holed up in mountain firebases backed up by mortars and pack howitzers until they finally reach Batavia and destroy the army they were facing. Batavia, and Java with it, falls by mid-1954.

Mid-1954: The UN, too late to save the lives of those who have died so far, convenes yet again to work out a plan to stop the war. Japan has walked out of the Security Council, which opens the door for a (OTL) Korean War-style solution, letting the remaining powers vote in a plan allowing the United Nations to label Japan the aggressor and assemble a coalition of willing nations to go against them to kick them out of the islands they have taken.

The US, Canada, France, South Africa, Belgium, Sweden, Columbia, and dozens of countries join the war effort in whatever form they can.

One USAF General, Hap Arnold, pitches a plan that has the backing of the USMC: in order to end the war with less loss of life and less time, the Japanese home islands should be subjected to a strategic bombing campaign similar to that of the European Theatre using the B-29s of SAC. "All we need to do," he says, "is take us a few islands in the South Pacific."
 
"All we need to do," he says, "is take us a few islands in the South Pacific."

Easy to say ...

No B-36 in this TL ? Its obvious that it would be a curb stomp if exists ...

BTW the Japs had committed a seppuku of huge proportions ...
 
Easy to say ...

No B-36 in this TL ? Its obvious that it would be a curb stomp if exists ...

BTW the Japs had committed a seppuku of huge proportions ...

As bad as the B-36 is, Pacific War: 1954, might get to see the B-52 deliver hurt from across the ocean. Flak's got nothing on them (they'd just fly over it).

And speaking of the B-36, wouldn't the Japaneses have the Fugaku flying too?
 
Mac,

That's an interesting timeline, although one wonders what's going on in China. Do the Japanese content themselves with Manchuria or are they engaging in their own Vietnam writ-very-large the whole time?

Also, they'd make a killing selling war goods to everybody if they stay neutral during the European War, which could affect Japan's economic strength, indigenous industries, etc.

BTW, have you considered selling your stories? Many SF mags purchase AH fiction. Go to Ralan.com and you'll find markets.

(I think they don't care if they're posted in places like our Writer's Forum or groups like Critters, although you might want to check.)
 
What exactly is going on in China? Did the Japanese just outright not invade? What about nationalist movements in Manchuria? Pu Yi's legitimacy is not exactly going to get any better.
 

Blair152

Banned
It would depend whose team they are on, and how ww2 ended without them.... do they still have positions in China, Vietnam, etc? Have they gone buddy buddy with the Russians, or have they made up with the west... as a neutral who stayed out of the war; their affections would be highly desired by both sides

I assume this butterflies away the Korean war since it will still be Japanese territory?

If you could give a little more background into how they got by the 13 years I could answer your question
The United States would still be armed with the M1 Garand, M1 Carbine, and
have a scoped M1903A4 Springfield rifle as its main sniper rifle.
 
A few things I cant understand.

OK, Japan wants the Indonesian oil. That makes sense.
The Phillipines will now be independant, so no close US fleet. Probably (OTL they had basing rights and a treaty, is there a reason they dont have the same this time?)
Now they are going to be annoyed at India for getting the oil, thats reasonable, and assuming that India will react and that some sort of preemptive reaction is necessary is also reasonable.

Given no Pacific War, its likely Britain is more influential that OTL< so while India/Pakistan would certainly be independent by now, Malasia would likely still be part of the Empire. So you have British forces based there and in Singapore.

So you decide to attack...AUSTRALIA!???! Why?? It makes little sense (there are far better options). Attacking British ships in Australia by surprise is going to send the UK ballistic. Even if the US doesnt have a treaty with Australia, they arent going to be exactly happy. Plus you now have forces in Malasia sitting on your supply line to Java...there was a reason Japan attacked the Phillipines and Malasia first in WW2...
Britain, Australia, and very probably other commonwealth countris arent going to wait on the UN, you realise -you'll be getting hit by them straight after Darwin happens. No European diversion, so those RN carriers and subs are heading your way, along with some of the best jet aircraft in the world - and you cant hurt the UK, its a secure base. Not to mention the fact the UK had atomic bombs by 1952, so you are now going to have to wory about nukes landing on your navy (at least!)
OK, this isnt quite as daft as attacking the USA, but its getting there. Your mad at India, how are you going to hurt them exactly? For a start, they have 4 times your population, and (thanks to attacking Oz), countries more than happy to arm them to the teeth.

I would suggest NOT attacking OZ, instead attack the DEI (only really annoying the Dutch, this is unlikely to get much more than arms from Europe/USA), and India (at sea). Use the fact Pakistan hates India to rope them in on your side, and use diplomacy to work on the annoyance in the UK at India splitting off from the Empire (its not huge, but you can probably exploit something)
Now you have a rather more handleable problem. It can still grow out of control into a larger war, but at least your initial aims are rather more sensible.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Given no Pacific War, its likely Britain is more influential that OTL< so while India/Pakistan would certainly be independent by now, Malasia would likely still be part of the Empire. So you have British forces based there and in Singapore.

Correct. The colonial commitments are still there.

So you decide to attack...AUSTRALIA!???! Why?? It makes little sense (there are far better options). Attacking British ships in Australia by surprise is going to send the UK ballistic. Even if the US doesnt have a treaty with Australia, they arent going to be exactly happy.

I honestly could've posted about 10 pages of this stuff. But basically, there's a lot of (faulty) pre-Pearl Harbour logic here. The Japanese are going to war with the following (assumed) facts in their heads...

1. The oil in the DEI is rightfully theirs. The Indians and Dutch must be making some play to cut their knees out from under them in order to gain supremacy.

2. They must attack the DEI now, and gain strong defensive positions there while attempting to take out any potential enemies in the Pacific and Indian basins.

3. Once the Dutch are at war, the Europeans will begin to support them. And once the Indians are attacked, the Commonwealth will bring it's full weight to bear against them. The logic the Japanese are operating under then says that in this case the best defense is a good offense against whatever Commonwealth forces they can reach.

Not to mention the fact the UK had atomic bombs by 1952, so you are now going to have to wory about nukes landing on your navy (at least!)

Nuclear weapons production in this timeline would be...rather slower. What nuclear weapons their are have been earmarked by NATO for would-be use on the European front in case of a Soviet invasion.

(meaning: it's a MacCaulay story, and I'm not a lazy storyteller who uses nuclear weapons.)
 
Nuclear weapons production in this timeline would be...rather slower. What nuclear weapons their are have been earmarked by NATO for would-be use on the European front in case of a Soviet invasion.

(meaning: it's a MacCaulay story, and I'm not a lazy storyteller who uses nuclear weapons.)

At first this is ok, but when things get really serious for the Japanese, and they start to use Kamikazes, Banzai charges and anything to produce more casualties in the allies this is going to be almost impossible to stop ...

I assume that some city in Germany was Nuked, and that and the fear of nuclear proliferation would slow them, at first ( after all they have 2/3 of the world against the Japanese, and a mayor Chinese harassment probably too ) ...
 

MacCaulay

Banned
( after all they have 2/3 of the world against the Japanese, and a mayor Chinese harassment probably too ) ...

The Chinese commitment is going to be much smaller. Almost to the point of non-existence after some point in the 1930s. An early end to the Chinese war and the nailing down of the DEI oil are the two lynchpins of letting me hold the war over until the mid-50s.

All I can say is, you guys will be do busy enjoying the awesomeness and randomness of these stories when you finally see them. This is more or less "Pacific War in a Cold War-context".
 
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