Pacific War, 1954

MacCaulay

Banned
By the '50s the Japanese economy would have imploded.
This would have resulted in the IJA having most of the scarce funds, with would result in basically a huge, lightly armed mob.
The IJN would probably consist of mostly '30s and early '40s carriers with several battleships around.

I don't remember why, but that probably has something to do that in the case of war (which is pretty much bound to be nuclear at first) their carriers would be targets. Also their old carriers are probably too cramped to operate decent jet fighters.

Then we just move the economic situation back ten years, too. I've got no issue with them operating a few new carriers.

Plausiable in the absense of an oil embargo on Japan

Then we just keep them out of China or something. Whatever it takes for folks to imagine a 1950s Pacific War without their heads blowing up.
 
Whatever it takes for folks to imagine a 1950s Pacific War without their heads blowing up.

How about this. After successfully conquering Manchuria, the Japanese become less militaristic after their economy improves with the gains. WW2 in Europe progresses fairly similarly until Barbarossa where the Germans focus entirely on the South, by 1943 the Germans have captured Stalingrad, Baku, Leningrad and Moscow. In the west the US has finally joined the war after a string of civillian ships being sunk by U-Boats. By 1943 the allies have captured Africa and have invaded Sicily.

Although the war, at least in the west, s finally progressing well for the allies disaster strikes in 1944 when the main scientists of the Manhattan project are wiped out by a mishandled pile. With all their brain power gone, the Americans abandon the project whilst with Fuchs also dead and their war economy in an even worst state the Soviets abandon thinking about Atomic bombs all together. Of course surrender is never a realistic option for Stalin and with much of his industry in the Urals and massive Lend Lease aid he continues to hold down millions of German troops, allowing the allies time to advance into France and by 1947 take Berlin, with the major powers finally accepting the final surrender of fanatical holdouts in eastern Poland in 1948.

The war has taken it's toll on all the sides and the allies need to occupy and reconstruct all of Europe botches the economic recovery leading to British empire crumbling and America facing depression levels of unemployment. The Soviets have refused American aid but now face famine in 1950. Although their economy and military have vastly improved with being a neutral nation, the effects of the economic crisis also hit Japan, leading to increasing unemployment and scarcity of resources. The militaristic attitudes resurface once more and with China in the middle of an economic civil war, they seem like easy pickings...

Although the Japanese are doing incredibly well in China, they are facing increasing scrutinyfrom the west with President Dewey referring to them as "The Asian Nazis" and by 1953 an embargo is declared. Knowing that although they have almost cleared eastern China of resistance (at least on the frontlines) they will begin to suffer from the embargo very soon and adopt a new strategy, the new independent nation of south east Asia are incredibly unstable and although they are US aligned they contain very few US troops. Of course the us itself is a major threat and thus the Japanese prepare to take action against their Pacific fleet.

On June 1st, 1954, war comes to the Pacific. A US carrier group is left massacred by Japanese jet fighters, within weeks much of south east Asia will be faced with Japanese invasion...

How's that?
 
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MacCaulay

Banned
How's that?

You had me at "no nukes". I like it. We'll go with that. And with that sort of reality (an oddly 1930s-esque one, I congratulate you), the Japanese could still go with roughly the same warplan they did in OTL.

I'll just tack on my "Japanese jump a US carrier group by Midway instead of attacking Pearl Harbour" at the end, and I think we've got our beginning.
 
I'm not sure you need to be so drastic as "The Americans mishandle an atomic pile in such a manner as to annihilate the entire research site which employed tens of thousands of people."

Let's suppose the Japanese take Manchuria, as in OTL; but then Chiang dies during the Xian incident in 1936. China descends into civil war, and Japan feels no need to invade in 1937. It exerts a quasi-hegemonic position.

World War II happens; Japan almost jumps south, but without the embargo doesn't; and anyway handling China is messy enough. But man, Mao gets annoying by 1944.

I'm also not so sure Stalin wants Japan destroyed. True, he dislikes Japan. But how many wars of aggression did he really launch in OTL? An invasion of Manchuria might get him Manchuria, sure. and then result in Japan ending up as a US proxy or ally.

Oops.
 
Somehow i doubt Japan would be much of a threat come 1950 or 1955, they just didn't have the economy to support their military long term, especially if they stayed in china.

And yet the Japanese economy boomed in much of the 1930s, thanks to devaluation of the yen and quasi-Keynesian (though nobody at the time would have recognized it as such) spending.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
You had me at "no nukes". I like it. We'll go with that. And with that sort of reality (an oddly 1930s-esque one, I congratulate you), the Japanese could still go with roughly the same warplan they did in OTL.

I'll just tack on my "Japanese jump a US carrier group by Midway instead of attacking Pearl Harbour" at the end, and I think we've got our beginning.

If we have a "No Nukes" scenario, which if you keep the rest of OTL in place is damned near impossible, than the U.S., rather than the massive demobilizing of OTL where it believed (rightly) that it was untouchable while it had the monopoly on the Bomb, maintaining a serious military force instead of the totally insufficient size force that actually happened.

The U.S. would effectively be the military power it is in around 1987 (of course with post WW II weapons) with no country capable of even considering facing the U.S. except the Soviets.

So instead of the Japanese losing five cities in a night in mushroom clouds they lose seven in a week out of the bomb bays of heavy bombers escorted by jet fighter flown by men who destroyed Germany.

Same result, just a bit more heavy lifting.

Japan was, to say it again, utterly incapable of producing a massive military without the resources of Mainland Asia and the equally massive import of massive amounts of materials from the United States. The country has NO oil to speak of, none. The import of oil has to come from either the United States or from the DEI.

This was near fatal in 1941, when the entire world was still using almost all non-motorized military formations and the Zero was able to fly on 18 gallons of fuel an hour (assuming the pilot was skilled and the aircraft was in cruise mode). By 1954 every semi-modern military was motorized, with the big kids being fully mechanized and the state of the art in aviation was early jets that gulped fuel at stunning rates. What was, in 1941, 18 months oil reserves was by 1954 a couple months, at best.

Japan had one, minuscule, opportunity to take on the Western Powers and it was in late 1941. That was its BEST chance, when the UK was up to its eyeballs with the Reich, the USSR was in a death struggle with the Nazis, the U.S. was just beginning to start its military build-up, and the Japanese military was, for the only time ever, about eight months ahead of the West in aircraft design.

December 1941 was Japan's sole window of opportunity. We all know how well that turned out.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
So instead of the Japanese losing five cities in a night in mushroom clouds they lose seven in a week out of the bomb bays of heavy bombers escorted by jet fighter flown by men who destroyed Germany.

Same result, just a bit more heavy lifting.

We thought that would work over North Korea, remember? B-29s got ripped up by Soviet and Chinese MiG-15s and ended up having to fly at night for safety.

The bombers would need some sort of base to launch from where fighters could escort them, either that or escorts are launched from carriers along the way.

Japan was, to say it again, utterly incapable of producing a massive military without the resources of Mainland Asia and the equally massive import of massive amounts of materials from the United States. The country has NO oil to speak of, none. The import of oil has to come from either the United States or from the DEI.
Then we handwave whatever you're concerned about away. But a lot of that sounds like 1930s "they're Japanese. They can't do that," sort of stuff.


Japan had one, minuscule, opportunity to take on the Western Powers and it was in late 1941. That was its BEST chance, when the UK was up to its eyeballs with the Reich, the USSR was in a death struggle with the Nazis, the U.S. was just beginning to start its military build-up, and the Japanese military was, for the only time ever, about eight months ahead of the West in aircraft design.

December 1941 was Japan's sole window of opportunity. We all know how well that turned out.
It really strikes me that had they ended up waiting until...say...February 1942, you'd be saying that was their one opportunity. We're pushing everything back a decade. We're just going to assume they've got oil coming in from the Dutch East Indies and possibly up north, at least enough to last themselves a year or so.
 

TheCrow__

Banned
Why don't you as you've said have Japan not enter WWII but side it with the Allies as a means of trade partner of some sort. Then after the Allies have defeated the fascist empire of Hitler. This partnership strains as Japan as OTL begins it's push into China once more. A power struggle for the Pacific could happen in 1954 this way. Allies vs a Japan that's had years to develope its stragedies.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
In other words we will just ignore reality and handwave nasty things like actual hard facts out of the scenario.

In that case it needs to go into ASB. You can't just reset everything forward 13 years and begin as if the U.S. and USSR have not undergone a European war (since you specified that the European part of the war still happened) that has totally reset their approach to war (like, oh, things like high performance, long range jet fighters, heavy armor, full mechanization of ground forces, early computerization, and even the demonstrated need for high performance aircraft on carriers).

February of 1942 would, BTW, have almost certainly been too late. By then the Americans would have finished building up Wake (including the arrival of the rest of Marine Defense Batt.), moved additional aircraft to the PI and would have had several air search radars operating 24/7 at Pearl. The U.S. would also have replaced pretty much all the F2A with F4F-3, three fast BB would be finishing builders trials, etc. Literally every day the Japanese waited after CarDiv 5 was combat ready (which was mid November 1941) was a day they failed to improve and a day that the U.S. grew stronger.

Japan had a vanishingly small window to TRY to make its grab & then hope that the U.S. didn't want to fight a long war to retake places it was ready to give up anyway. The miscalculations involved in that particular line of thinking has been amply demonstrated.

We thought that would work over North Korea, remember? B-29s got ripped up by Soviet and Chinese MiG-15s and ended up having to fly at night for safety.

The bombers would need some sort of base to launch from where fighters could escort them, either that or escorts are launched from carriers along the way.

Then we handwave whatever you're concerned about away. But a lot of that sounds like 1930s "they're Japanese. They can't do that," sort of stuff.


It really strikes me that had they ended up waiting until...say...February 1942, you'd be saying that was their one opportunity. We're pushing everything back a decade. We're just going to assume they've got oil coming in from the Dutch East Indies and possibly up north, at least enough to last themselves a year or so.
 
And yet the Japanese economy boomed in much of the 1930s, thanks to devaluation of the yen and quasi-Keynesian (though nobody at the time would have recognized it as such) spending.

If we take the notion that Japan is interested in consolidation of it's gains after 1931 instead of going for fully militarized economy and the insane China campaign we might see a gigantic economic boom for Japan during WW II.

How about something like this:

After 1938 Japanese economy has benefited from worldwide investment boom. Japanese shipyards are fully employed churning out modern merchant ships which are in some respects a decade more advanced than those of other countries. These fine ships are supported by hordes of simpler Type A standard ships constructed in the new mass-production shipyards.

Japan joins the Second World War (going roughly OTL) in 1940 in return for
favored trade partner status with the British Empire. Just like during the WW I the primary theater of involvement for Japan is the Mediterranean where Nihon Kaigun is proving it's worth. Gradually the involvement
is expanded to the Atlantic where the Japanese destroyers and later on, the mass produced destroyer escorts, are crucial in turning the Battle of Atlantic around.

In 1941 Germany decides to expand it's living sphere by attacking the USSR. Japanese industry both in Japan, Manchuria and Korea enjoy a second great boom as the demand for various mundane and diverse articles to supply the Red Army rises. These orders are largely financed by the US goverment.

The US joins the war in 1942 after a series of U-boat attacks on American ships. The war, while popular, is not the Jihad/Crusade of OTL. The US expansion is mainly in air and army fighting power as naval situation has been favorable to the Allies since 1940.

In 1943 the German effort in the East is failing and the Western Allies launch a series of invasions of German occupied Europe. Japan participates in the Mediterranean ground campaign by sending SNLF forces to learn about modern ground combat. The Allied main effort is against occupied France, where the Operation Sledgehammer leads to bloody extended attritional battles not quitelike those seen in 1916-1918.

On 6 June 1944 the Second World War is over as Germany surrenders and is divided to occupation zones. The Manhattan Project, on back burner since mid-1943 as the victory was in sight, is refocused to atomic research on nuclear energy.

In late 1940's the former European colonies in Asia gain independence. Japan leads movement to form an Asian Block to counter the two "Caucasian" blocks, ie. Communist and Capitalist blocks. As the Japanese militarism has been less obvious this movement is surprisingly popular. The new block is called usually Eastasia.

In 1953 Stalin dies and the Communist Block, a monolith that wasn't, falls apart into a series of bloody civil wars. Imperial Japanese Army decides to intervene in former Soviet Maritime provinces in manner similar to 1918. While relations between the United States and Japan, both competing for export markets in the poor post-war world, had been sour for a long time this proves to be the catalyst for the series of events leading to the Great Pacific War between Eastasia and Anglo-Saxon powers...
 

TheCrow__

Banned
If we take the notion that Japan is interested in consolidation of it's gains after 1931 instead of going for fully militarized economy and the insane China campaign we might see a gigantic economic boom for Japan during WW II.

How about something like this:

After 1938 Japanese economy has benefited from worldwide investment boom. Japanese shipyards are fully employed churning out modern merchant ships which are in some respects a decade more advanced than those of other countries. These fine ships are supported by hordes of simpler Type A standard ships constructed in the new mass-production shipyards.

Japan joins the Second World War (going roughly OTL) in 1940 in return for
favored trade partner status with the British Empire. Just like during the WW I the primary theater of involvement for Japan is the Mediterranean where Nihon Kaigun is proving it's worth. Gradually the involvement
is expanded to the Atlantic where the Japanese destroyers and later on, the mass produced destroyer escorts, are crucial in turning the Battle of Atlantic around.

In 1941 Germany decides to expand it's living sphere by attacking the USSR. Japanese industry both in Japan, Manchuria and Korea enjoy a second great boom as the demand for various mundane and diverse articles to supply the Red Army rises. These orders are largely financed by the US goverment.

The US joins the war in 1942 after a series of U-boat attacks on American ships. The war, while popular, is not the Jihad/Crusade of OTL. The US expansion is mainly in air and army fighting power as naval situation has been favorable to the Allies since 1940.

In 1943 the German effort in the East is failing and the Western Allies launch a series of invasions of German occupied Europe. Japan participates in the Mediterranean ground campaign by sending SNLF forces to learn about modern ground combat. The Allied main effort is against occupied France, where the Operation Sledgehammer leads to bloody extended attritional battles not quitelike those seen in 1916-1918.

On 6 June 1944 the Second World War is over as Germany surrenders and is divided to occupation zones. The Manhattan Project, on back burner since mid-1943 as the victory was in sight, is refocused to atomic research on nuclear energy.

In late 1940's the former European colonies in Asia gain independence. Japan leads movement to form an Asian Block to counter the two "Caucasian" blocks, ie. Communist and Capitalist blocks. As the Japanese militarism has been less obvious this movement is surprisingly popular. The new block is called usually Eastasia.

In 1953 Stalin dies and the Communist Block, a monolith that wasn't, falls apart into a series of bloody civil wars. Imperial Japanese Army decides to intervene in former Soviet Maritime provinces in manner similar to 1918. While relations between the United States and Japan, both competing for export markets in the poor post-war world, had been sour for a long time this proves to be the catalyst for the series of events leading to the Great Pacific War between Eastasia and Anglo-Saxon powers...

This is what I was broadly trying to say. :D
 
Then we handwave whatever you're concerned about away. But a lot of that sounds like 1930s "they're Japanese. They can't do that," sort of stuff.

Well, there's always synthetic petroleum. And Daqing was accessible with 1950s oil technology.
 
Vignette:

USN heavy unit strength, 1 October 1954:

3 Normandy (OTL Midway) class CVB's (Normandy, Sicily, Languedoc),
completed 1945-1950

8 Essex CV's, of which 4 has had SCB-27 upgrades (no more Essex -class carriers were constructed in "One Ocean Fleet" program as the German naval threat was reduced fairly quickly). SCB-27 upgraded carriers are equipped with state-of the art jet air wings.

4 Iowa BB's

4 South Dakota -class BB's (from reserves, recently mobilized, unmodernized)

2 North Carolina -class BB's (from reserves, recently mobilized, unmodernized)

Under construction:

2 Forrestal -class CVB's (ordered in 1951), to be commissioned 1955-1956

8 Forrestal -class CVB's, ordered in Feb 1954, to be commissioned starting in 1957
 
Vignette 2

Senkou - The Fast Japanese submarines of the Pacific War


While the United States clearly possessed superior aircraft in the beginning of the Pacific War the Imperial Japanese Navy had a clear lead in field of submarines. The Imperial Japanese Navy had had as it's central experience during the Second World War the intense anti-submarine warfare campaign known as the Battle of the Atlantic, while the USN's central naval experience in the war was the support of amphibious campaigns, in most dramatic fashion during the invasion of Norway.

This experience combined with domestic interest in hydrondynamics and torpedo warfare resulted in the dramatically superior I-201 class trialled between 1945-1947. The I-201 and her four sisters were, however, mainly trial units. The first true operational fast submarines, the I-511 -class entered service beginning in 1951 employing not only superior submerged speed and snorkel battery recharging but also new 24" wire guided torpedoes. The larger torpedoes employed by the IJN allowed the fairly primitive guidance systems to be fitted inside them.

The new generation of submarines were also hideously expensive despite the new production technologies due to rising cost of electronics equipment. Thus the IJN possessed just 20 of I-511's in the beginning of the war.
15-2.jpg
 
?How about this?

OTL up to --
June 1940
As France surrenders, Germany sends an Envoy to Japan to Discuss Increasing the supply of various Materials From China. [vanadium, etc]

Hideki Tojo, [Minister of War] , & General Yoshijiro Umezu [Chief of Staff], take the German Envoy out to celebrate the new sales agreement.

POD
While enjoying themselves, at a local Geisha House, a fire in the Kitchen explodes, and kills Tojo, Umezu, the German Envoy, and a half-dozen other senior Militant Officials.

July 1940

The new Japanese Government has taken office. While Japan will honor the June Sales agreement, The whole episode has involved a great loss of Face.
The developing relation between Germany and Japan takes a hit as both sides pull back.

Septembre 1940
Due to different officials in Charge -- Japan does not join the Axis.
There is no Japanese invasion of Vietnam.


Octobre 1940

There is no US Oil Embargo against Japan.

June 1941

Operation Barbarossa

February 1942

Japan is shipping Thousands of Cans of Japanese variety of Spam & Bully Beef from Manchuria to Russia.

Spring 1942

Russia requests that the US lift the Steel Embargo against Japan

Summer 1942

German U Boat sinks a Major US Warship, bringing the US into the European War.
[OP needs Europe close to OTL]

Fall 1942

Japan begins selling a Version of the Bantam BRC, along with other military suppies to Russia.

Fall 1944

Having obsevered and Studied the Russian Tank Battles, Japan begins building a new Tank designed to defend Manchuria from the T-34.

D-Day Europe

Spring 1945

With the Manhattan Project 18~20 months from Completion, and the War in Europe being >6 months away, the Project is scaled back.

Fall 1945

V-E Day

Ho Chi Mien Declares Vietnam Independent.

Winter 1946

France sends Troops to put down rebels, Vietnam War Begins.

Sukarno in Indonesia declares Independence.

Spring 1946

Dutch send more troops to Indonesia to put down Rebels, Indonesian War Begins.

[Both of these are attempts to take advandage of the Confusion caused by change of government Following the end of the War. Both are 3~4 months later than OTL]

Summer 1946

The War Over, US reimposes the Steel Embargo over Japanese actions in China. Talk about imposing a Oil Embargo.
Major cooling of US Japanese relations

July 4 1946

Phillipines become Independent, Original 1945 date was postponed due to the War.

Fall 1949

Last Nationalist Chinese Army Surrenders. Main resistance in China is now Mao and his Communists.

Winter 1947

US inposes a Oil Embargo, British, Dutch, do not. Indonesia is Japanese main sourse of Petrol.

1949

US Congress holds hearings about Japanese penertration of Phillipino Businesses.

1951
US Military returns to 1939/Per Captia level.

Fall 1953

Dutch, French accuse Japan of Supporting rebels with Guns and Supplies.

Spring 1954

Following reports of a Major Massacare of Communist Rebels in NW China -- British, Dutch, join Oil Embargo, France embargos Veitnese Rubber.

Summer 1954

Japan sends Troops to Indonesia, Vietnam, '''In Support of our Asian Brothers" Pacific War Starts.
 
Vignette:

USN heavy unit strength, 1 October 1954:

3 Normandy (OTL Midway) class CVB's (Normandy, Sicily, Languedoc),
completed 1945-1950

8 Essex CV's, of which 4 has had SCB-27 upgrades (no more Essex -class carriers were constructed in "One Ocean Fleet" program as the German naval threat was reduced fairly quickly). SCB-27 upgraded carriers are equipped with state-of the art jet air wings.

4 Iowa BB's

4 South Dakota class BB's (from reserves, recently mobilized, unmodernized)

2 North Carolina class BB's (from reserves, recently mobilized, unmodernized)

Under construction:

2 Forrestal class CVB's (ordered in 1951), to be commissioned 1955-1956

8 Forrestal class CVB's, ordered in Feb 1954, to be commissioned starting in 1957
Problem is -- Without the Korean War US military strength was headed toward 1939~1940 levels, So your Forrestal class ships never get built.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Problem is -- Without the Korean War US military strength was headed toward 1939~1940 levels, So your Forrestal class ships never get built.

That's something else we need to think about: the carriers of the Second World War were able to be turned out quickly, especially the escort carriers. That's not something you can do with the larger (and more labour intensive) ones needed for jet operations.

Though one might wonder if the USMC would end up using some of the smaller ones as assault carriers loaded with helicopters to assist in any of the needed landings.
 
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