By the '50s the Japanese economy would have imploded.
This would have resulted in the IJA having most of the scarce funds, with would result in basically a huge, lightly armed mob.
The IJN would probably consist of mostly '30s and early '40s carriers with several battleships around.
I don't remember why, but that probably has something to do that in the case of war (which is pretty much bound to be nuclear at first) their carriers would be targets. Also their old carriers are probably too cramped to operate decent jet fighters.
Plausiable in the absense of an oil embargo on Japan
Whatever it takes for folks to imagine a 1950s Pacific War without their heads blowing up.
How's that?
I'll just tack on my "Japanese jump a US carrier group by Midway instead of attacking Pearl Harbour" at the end, and I think we've got our beginning.
Somehow i doubt Japan would be much of a threat come 1950 or 1955, they just didn't have the economy to support their military long term, especially if they stayed in china.
You had me at "no nukes". I like it. We'll go with that. And with that sort of reality (an oddly 1930s-esque one, I congratulate you), the Japanese could still go with roughly the same warplan they did in OTL.
I'll just tack on my "Japanese jump a US carrier group by Midway instead of attacking Pearl Harbour" at the end, and I think we've got our beginning.
So instead of the Japanese losing five cities in a night in mushroom clouds they lose seven in a week out of the bomb bays of heavy bombers escorted by jet fighter flown by men who destroyed Germany.
Same result, just a bit more heavy lifting.
Then we handwave whatever you're concerned about away. But a lot of that sounds like 1930s "they're Japanese. They can't do that," sort of stuff.Japan was, to say it again, utterly incapable of producing a massive military without the resources of Mainland Asia and the equally massive import of massive amounts of materials from the United States. The country has NO oil to speak of, none. The import of oil has to come from either the United States or from the DEI.
It really strikes me that had they ended up waiting until...say...February 1942, you'd be saying that was their one opportunity. We're pushing everything back a decade. We're just going to assume they've got oil coming in from the Dutch East Indies and possibly up north, at least enough to last themselves a year or so.Japan had one, minuscule, opportunity to take on the Western Powers and it was in late 1941. That was its BEST chance, when the UK was up to its eyeballs with the Reich, the USSR was in a death struggle with the Nazis, the U.S. was just beginning to start its military build-up, and the Japanese military was, for the only time ever, about eight months ahead of the West in aircraft design.
December 1941 was Japan's sole window of opportunity. We all know how well that turned out.
We thought that would work over North Korea, remember? B-29s got ripped up by Soviet and Chinese MiG-15s and ended up having to fly at night for safety.
The bombers would need some sort of base to launch from where fighters could escort them, either that or escorts are launched from carriers along the way.
Then we handwave whatever you're concerned about away. But a lot of that sounds like 1930s "they're Japanese. They can't do that," sort of stuff.
It really strikes me that had they ended up waiting until...say...February 1942, you'd be saying that was their one opportunity. We're pushing everything back a decade. We're just going to assume they've got oil coming in from the Dutch East Indies and possibly up north, at least enough to last themselves a year or so.
And yet the Japanese economy boomed in much of the 1930s, thanks to devaluation of the yen and quasi-Keynesian (though nobody at the time would have recognized it as such) spending.
If we take the notion that Japan is interested in consolidation of it's gains after 1931 instead of going for fully militarized economy and the insane China campaign we might see a gigantic economic boom for Japan during WW II.
How about something like this:
After 1938 Japanese economy has benefited from worldwide investment boom. Japanese shipyards are fully employed churning out modern merchant ships which are in some respects a decade more advanced than those of other countries. These fine ships are supported by hordes of simpler Type A standard ships constructed in the new mass-production shipyards.
Japan joins the Second World War (going roughly OTL) in 1940 in return for
favored trade partner status with the British Empire. Just like during the WW I the primary theater of involvement for Japan is the Mediterranean where Nihon Kaigun is proving it's worth. Gradually the involvement
is expanded to the Atlantic where the Japanese destroyers and later on, the mass produced destroyer escorts, are crucial in turning the Battle of Atlantic around.
In 1941 Germany decides to expand it's living sphere by attacking the USSR. Japanese industry both in Japan, Manchuria and Korea enjoy a second great boom as the demand for various mundane and diverse articles to supply the Red Army rises. These orders are largely financed by the US goverment.
The US joins the war in 1942 after a series of U-boat attacks on American ships. The war, while popular, is not the Jihad/Crusade of OTL. The US expansion is mainly in air and army fighting power as naval situation has been favorable to the Allies since 1940.
In 1943 the German effort in the East is failing and the Western Allies launch a series of invasions of German occupied Europe. Japan participates in the Mediterranean ground campaign by sending SNLF forces to learn about modern ground combat. The Allied main effort is against occupied France, where the Operation Sledgehammer leads to bloody extended attritional battles not quitelike those seen in 1916-1918.
On 6 June 1944 the Second World War is over as Germany surrenders and is divided to occupation zones. The Manhattan Project, on back burner since mid-1943 as the victory was in sight, is refocused to atomic research on nuclear energy.
In late 1940's the former European colonies in Asia gain independence. Japan leads movement to form an Asian Block to counter the two "Caucasian" blocks, ie. Communist and Capitalist blocks. As the Japanese militarism has been less obvious this movement is surprisingly popular. The new block is called usually Eastasia.
In 1953 Stalin dies and the Communist Block, a monolith that wasn't, falls apart into a series of bloody civil wars. Imperial Japanese Army decides to intervene in former Soviet Maritime provinces in manner similar to 1918. While relations between the United States and Japan, both competing for export markets in the poor post-war world, had been sour for a long time this proves to be the catalyst for the series of events leading to the Great Pacific War between Eastasia and Anglo-Saxon powers...
Then we handwave whatever you're concerned about away. But a lot of that sounds like 1930s "they're Japanese. They can't do that," sort of stuff.
Problem is -- Without the Korean War US military strength was headed toward 1939~1940 levels, So your Forrestal class ships never get built.Vignette:
USN heavy unit strength, 1 October 1954:
3 Normandy (OTL Midway) class CVB's (Normandy, Sicily, Languedoc),
completed 1945-1950
8 Essex CV's, of which 4 has had SCB-27 upgrades (no more Essex -class carriers were constructed in "One Ocean Fleet" program as the German naval threat was reduced fairly quickly). SCB-27 upgraded carriers are equipped with state-of the art jet air wings.
4 Iowa BB's
4 South Dakota class BB's (from reserves, recently mobilized, unmodernized)
2 North Carolina class BB's (from reserves, recently mobilized, unmodernized)
Under construction:
2 Forrestal class CVB's (ordered in 1951), to be commissioned 1955-1956
8 Forrestal class CVB's, ordered in Feb 1954, to be commissioned starting in 1957
Problem is -- Without the Korean War US military strength was headed toward 1939~1940 levels, So your Forrestal class ships never get built.